Week 3 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 3 college football best bets:
Florida (+7.5) at LSU
A four-game win streak to finish last season fooled some into believing embattled coach Billy Napier could get the job done at Florida. It’s early September and already those believers must feel like fools.
Napier owns a 20-20 record in his fourth year and it’s about to go from bad to worse. It got embarrassing last week when the Gators, as 18-point home favorites, fell to South Florida 18-16. Napier made his usual array of game-management mistakes as his team committed 11 penalties while being disgraced.
Florida’s latest football fiasco should come as no big surprise. Napier was the wrong hire, something I said at the time after watching him make clumsy coaching errors during his otherwise successful tenure at Louisiana. “Sun Belt Billy” was destined to get exposed in the Southeastern Conference. He’s simply out of his league.
A year ago, after the Gators were mauled 41-17 by Miami in Gainesville, Napier nearly got into a scuffle with the team mascot, Albert the Alligator, who was fed up. Napier was eventually rescued by the emergence of freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, who led the way to an 8-5 record and provided some hope for the future.
Florida’s immediate future is gloomy. After playing at LSU on Saturday, the Gators will continue to run the gauntlet against Miami, Texas and Texas A&M. Napier is doomed, and let the record show that Albert the Alligator was right all along.
Brian Kelly is not on the coaching hot seat at LSU, not after opening with a big win at Clemson and starting 2-0 with a team seemingly headed for SEC title contention. The Tigers are much improved defensively, allowing 8.5 points per game, and senior Garrett Nussmeier is one of the nation’s top quarterbacks. However, Nussmeier has only two touchdown passes in two games, the running attack is sputtering and Kelly’s offense is underachieving.
The Gators are solid defensively and have enough offensive talent to run with the Tigers. Lagway, who passed for 222 yards against South Florida, is a dynamic playmaker and is supported by running back Jadan Baugh and receivers Eugene Wilson and J. Michael Sturdivant, a UCLA transfer.
Florida fits the angle of betting on a good team after a bad loss. I took the Gators +9.5 early in the week and sharp money has moved the line to 7.5 and 7. If this play fails, I could look foolish for siding with Napier, but I know what I’m signing up for and will go with a desperate underdog in what should be a tight game.
Best Bet: Florida +7.5
Oklahoma (-23.5) at Temple
The Sooners delivered for me last week as 5-point favorites in a 24-13 victory over Michigan. John Mateer accounted for three touchdowns while passing for 270 yards and rushing for 74. The Oklahoma defense limited the Wolverines to 288 total yards. Mateer won’t take many risks running the ball this week. The Sooners are in a classic sandwich spot, off a signature win and with Auburn on deck. Temple quarterback Evan Simon has completed 77% of his passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. The Owls, after scoring 97 points in two wins against cupcake opponents, appear to have enough offense to cover a huge number.
Best Bet: Temple +23.5
USC (-21) at Purdue
Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma and was a celebrated coaching hire by USC, but he has yet to live up to the hype. The Trojans are legit, ranking No. 1 in the nation with 132 points through two games, though the opposition (Missouri State and Georgia Southern) has been weak. Riley is developing quarterback Jayden Maiava, a former UNLV transfer, and running back Waymond Jordan is a future star. Still, USC is being asked to cover a big number in what suddenly seems to be a tougher road trip than what was expected in the preseason. Barry Odom won 20 games in two years as UNLV’s coach and is quickly turning Purdue into a more competitive team. The Boilermakers (2-0) are taking a big step up in class after beating two lightweights, but Odom has improved the defense and dual-threat quarterback Ryan Browne can move the offense.
Best Bet: Purdue +21
Minnesota (-2.5) at California
Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is forcing broadcasters to learn how to pronounce his name. The former five-star recruit from Hawaii makes plays with his legs and throws with accuracy. Golden Bears coach Justin Wilcox always has tough defenses, and he could be catching a break in this matchup because Minnesota star running back Darius Taylor is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Minnesota has not been tested and remains a bit of a mystery team. The home ‘dog looks live in Berkeley.
Best Bet: California +2.5
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 7-5
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