Week 3 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 3 college football best bets:
Temple +23 vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma, especially on defense, impressed last week with a 24-13 victory over Michigan as they held Bryce Underwood to 9-for-24 on 142 yards passing. Transfer QB John Mateer continues to rise up the Heisman odds board as he put up 344 yards (270 passing, 74 rushing) of total offense last week. Now the Sooners travel to Philadelphia to face Temple at what may be a sleepy Lincoln Financial Field on Saturday morning.
The Owls are 2-0 and did make one of the better hires in this past coaching cycle by bringing in K.C. Keeler, who is a two-time FCS National Championship-winning head coach and the only one to win them at two different schools (2003 at Delaware and 2021 at Sam Houston State). Keeler is about as Philly as it gets as he was born in Emmaus, PA (about 50 miles north of the city), played and coached at Delaware, spent time as a player for both the Eagles and Philadelphia Stars of the USFL, had his first head coaching job 25 miles away at Rowan University (Glassboro, NJ), and was even a producer on ESPN and NFL Films’ NFL Matchup show hosted by longtime Philly-based reporter Sal Paolantonio and former Eagles QB Ron Jaworski.
Keeler appeared on 97.5 The Fanatic for a Wednesday interview and spoke of extra motivation in hearing some of the Sooner reporters dismissing Temple and its atmosphere.
“There was a hot mic out there a couple of days ago,” said Keeler. I explained to some of our players because some of the media people mentioned, ‘Oh, 30,000 or 25,000 people, it’s gonna be like a high school game for them.’ You don’t understand, there is a different energy in our building right now. Just real positive, let’s go at these guys, we can do this sort of mentality. The energy they are getting is one of, ‘Where is Temple again? What level of football do they play?
“And it’s not the kids’ fault. I thought their coach did a great job at the press conference talking about Temple. But after his press conference, there wasn’t a single question about Temple. This press conference is usually about what you just did and moving forward. And nobody asked a question about the Temple Owls. We always talk about, ‘Don’t let the outside sources affect what’s going on in the building. And sometimes it’s almost impossible. Because you have a lot of people in your ear. Again, they have a hot mic there, I’m sure they have all heard about that. Again, their coach does a great job of talking about Temple. But not a single media person asked about the game against Temple. I just think there will be a different energy, especially since they have Auburn next week, than what we have going on in our building.”
As Keeler mentioned, Oklahoma does have Auburn next week, and it’s not just any SEC conference play opener. Auburn is now led by last year’s Oklahoma starting QB Jackson Arnold.
Temple got embarrassed last year 51-3 in Norman and were -6 in turnovers.
Owls returning starting QB Evan Simon has a 77% completion percentage and nine touchdowns to no interceptions in his first two starts, albeit against UMass and FCS Howard. While the competition is obviously stiffer this week, Temple likely has a good game plan here with a short passing game.
Oklahoma also has some concerns offensively, particularly on the ground, as they have only rushed for 241 yards on 72 carries.
This is a proverbial sandwich spot for Oklahoma, perhaps a Philly cheesesteak sandwich spot this Saturday in Philadelphia.
Northwestern +28 vs. Oregon
Oregon has started the season winning its first two games by a combined score of 128 to 16. So, let’s rush to the window (or app) to bet against the Ducks, right?
FOX College Football Analyst Joel Klatt will be on the call for this game on FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff this Saturday on the lake in Evanston. Here is what he had to say this week regarding the Ducks:
The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football on FOX Pod on X: ““They are built exactly how you would build a team to win a National Championship.” @joelklatt has high praise for the Ducks – can they win it all?
Klatt likely is not wrong in his assessment of the Ducks, but he and partner Gus Johnson may end up calling a more competitive game than it would look to be on paper.
Dan Lanning clearly had his team motivated when Oklahoma State gave them some bulletin board material and ended up getting laid out, 69-3. However, the Ducks come off that game and have an early 9 AM PST kickoff in Evanston at Northwestern’s temporary 12000-seat Martin Stadium. Next week, Oregon has the rivalry game formerly known as ‘The Civil War’ against Oregon State and then a trip to Happy Valley the following week to take on Penn State in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game, won 45-37 by the Ducks.
Perhaps this is an Italian Beef from Portillo’s sandwich spot for the Ducks since they are in Chicagoland this weekend.
Northwestern will have to slow the game down, and QB Preston Stone will need to minimize the turnovers, which he did not do in the opener at Tulane, as he threw four interceptions.
The Wildcats were in a similar spot last year at home against then-No. 2 Ohio State getting 28 at home and did cover the number in a 31-7 defeat.
This wager is not for the faint of heart, so we will be nervous, but the Purple Cats should do just enough to get to the window.
South Alabama + 25 at Auburn
It was not looking promising for our Jaguars selection last week. Not only were we on the worst end of the number, taking +11 when it reached 14 at one point but were also down 33-17 with 10:00 left despite jumping out to an early 14-0 lead. Nevertheless, South Alabama scored two late touchdowns and had a chance to tie on a two-point conversion, but they were not able to convert and fell to a 33-31 defeat. For the CLV (Closing Line Value) truthers out there, sometimes you lose with the best of it, or in this case, win with the worst of it.
South Alabama has an even more difficult task this week after the three-and-a-half-hour bus ride north to the Plains at Auburn.
Auburn just entered the Top 25 this past week with a 2-0 start by winning at Baylor and routing Ball State last weekend.
The Tigers have a Pimento cheese sandwich spot with this one as they go to Oklahoma next weekend in an attempt to gain revenge from blowing an 11-point lead to the Sooners last year. Next week, they will be bringing their new starting QB Jackson Arnold to face his former teammates in Norman.
The question is whether Auburn will be bringing its starting RB Damari Alston into this one as he missed vs. Ball State with a shoulder injury and is questionable here.
The smaller state school is always motivated against the bigger school in-state and South Alabama should fit that bill here. They never gave in last week after giving up 27 unanswered points and ended up actually outgaining Tulane.
Let us hope that they signed up for 60 yet again this week.
Miami -17.5 vs. South Florida
South Florida/Miami Under 57
The Bulls have certainly been on parade as America’s early-season underdog has pulled two upsets in the first two weeks of the season, knocking off Boise State and winning at Florida. Completing the trifecta this week will be a tall task at Miami.
The U impressed with an opening win over Notre Dame and then took it fairly easy on Bethune-Cookman last week.
Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck looks like a legitimate Heisman candidate behind one of the better offensive lines in college football and plenty of weapons at receiver.
Shannon Dawson’s offense behind No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Cam Ward led the nation in scoring last year and will certainly be one of the better ones this year.
The defense also looks to be elite, with Corey Hetherman coming in from Minnesota to be the defensive coordinator.
If Mario Cristobal can stay out of his coordinators’ way, the Hurricanes are a playoff team and a dark horse National Championship contender.
USF is currently in great shape for the Group of 5 spot in the playoff, but this could be where the Bulls wear down in the second half. After seeing what happened last week in Gainesville, Miami will not take USF lightly.
Florida +7.5 at LSU
Speaking of Gainesville, it is probably a good thing for the Gators to get out of that town and head to Baton Rouge after losing as 18.5-point home favorites to South Florida last week. Now the fans want Billy Napier out, and multiple SEC power rankings are putting Florida down near the bottom with Kentucky. Let’s not overreact here.
Napier is in his best role here as an underdog (26-12 ATS career).
While there are still realistically high expectations for LSU, the hype may have needed to cool down a bit after what we saw out of Clemson last week.
The Tigers are also having difficulty running the ball, as they could only muster 128 yards on 34 carries against Louisiana Tech last week and just 108 yards on 31 carries at Clemson the week prior. Garrett Nussmeier is a future NFL QB, and he can mask a lot of LSU’s deficiencies in the running game with his arm.
Florida has their backs against the wall and has shown resiliency in these spots in recent years.
Quick Hits
Western Michigan +27.5 at Illinois
While the Illini were outgained 438-419 and did win the turnover margin 5-0 in a misleading final score of 45-19, they clearly were the better team, and Bob Knight once said, “victory favors the team making the fewest mistakes.”
After failing to score an offensive TD in the season-opening loss at Michigan State, Western Michigan was able to put 30 on the board last week and had a two-touchdown lead midway through the 3rd quarter before falling 33-30 in OT vs. North Texas.
Illinois finds itself in its own sandwich spot here at the Illini have a big primetime Saturday night showdown at Indiana on deck next weekend.
Arkansas/Ole Miss Over 61.5
The Razorbacks took some money (including some of mine) at +7.5 and +7 and are now 6.5 as rumors surfaced of Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons dealing with an ankle injury. If he cannot go or is not at full strength, then Trinidad Chambliss, a D-II All-American who won a National Championship last year at Ferris State, is capable of running this high-octane, uptempo Ole Miss offense. Chambliss threw for over 2900 yards and ran for over 1000 (51 TDs in all) last season.
Purdue +20.5 vs. USC
I have backed the Trojans each of the first two weeks and have been rewarded with 73-13 and 59-20 victories over Missouri State and Georgia Southern respectively. Yet, this line has seen hardly any movement against predicted Big Ten doormat Purdue?
Purdue OC Josh Henson spent the last three years on the USC staff in the same role. New Purdue head coach Barry Odom coached USC QB Jayden Maiava at UNLV.
This weekend in West Lafayette, Purdue will be commemorating the 25-year anniversary of its 2000 Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl appearance with Drew Brees and his teammates in attendance.
BEST OF THE REST
Arkansas State +21.5 vs. Iowa State
Georgia Southern -3 vs. Jacksonville State
Tulsa +14 vs. Navy
Vanderbilt +4 at South Carolina
Delaware +9.5 vs. UConn
For more college football Week 3 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 3 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
