Week 3 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 3 College Football

More football means more data points and that’s what we have after Week 2. The Week 3 college football power ratings have shifted a lot for those who make their own lines, myself included. One good or bad performance could be an outlier. Even two could be outliers, but we also have to take into account that maybe a follow-up performance of the same ilk is just what we may see going forward.

There are a lot of grown men playing college football these days with the transfer portal and all the ways to get increased eligibility, but we are still betting on a high-variance demographic in an inherently higher-variance form of football with all the varying offensive schemes and additional possessions. So, you don’t want to draw a line in the sand and become stubborn about these teams, but you do want to think about what we’ve seen already and how to analyze it in hopes of predicting future outcomes.

I’ve made some pretty sizable adjustments this week, both to mirror/catch up to the market or to simply take some of my own positions based on what we’ve seen already. There are some teams I am okay with being higher or lower on than the market. We’re also finding that offensive line play has been rather terrible, an astute observation from brilliant CFB mind Parker Fleming.

My week 2 overreaction for college football: the price of offensive linemen is going to go way up this offseason.

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 8, 2025

Mobile quarterbacks probably have to be weighted heavier at this point because they are better equipped to overcome bad OL play, especially at Group of Five schools. So it may be beneficial to be a little higher on those teams and lower on those with Easter Island statues in the pocket.

As I mentioned last week, my process is to compare my line to the closing line, analyze the box scores, and try my best to find injury intel, which can be very hard to find since teams generally don’t practice on Saturdays and coaches don’t have media availability. The hope is that we find out more as the week goes along. For example, my line is a tick or two short on Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame and I had to ascertain whether or not that was my power ratings or because Marcel Reed left last week’s game. While he (and his dad) say that he’s fine, you never really know for sure until the coach says something and that’ll be layered in gamesmanship.

In any event, my numbers are adjusted, lines are made, and some games are under a lot more consideration than others.

Week 3 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	90	3.5
2	Penn State	90	3.5
3	Texas	89	3.5
4	Oregon	89	3.5
5	Georgia	88	3
6	LSU	87.5	3.5
7	Notre Dame	85.5	3
8	Texas A&M	84	2
9	Miami (Florida)	84	2
10	Oklahoma	84	3
11	Alabama	83.5	3.5
12	Tennessee	83.5	3.5
13	Clemson	81	2.5
14	USC	81	3
15	Auburn	80.5	2
16	Michigan	80.5	3
17	Mississippi	80.5	3
18	Florida	79	2
19	Indiana	79	2.5
20	Missouri	79	3.5
21	Illinois	78	2
22	South Carolina	78	2.5
23	Utah	78	3
24	Florida State	77.5	2
25	Texas Tech	77.5	3
26	Iowa State	77	2
27	TCU	77	3
28	Arizona State	76.5	2
29	Louisville	76	3.5
30	Arkansas	75	2
31	Baylor	75	2
32	Iowa	75	3
33	Nebraska	75	2
34	SMU	74.5	3.5
35	Washington	74.5	3.5
36	Kansas	74	2.5
37	Vanderbilt	74	1.5
38	Georgia Tech	73.5	2
39	Minnesota	73	2
40	BYU	72	2
41	Wisconsin	72	2
42	Houston	70.5	2
43	Mississippi State	70.5	2
44	Kansas State	70	3.5
45	Rutgers	70	2
46	South Florida	70	1.5
47	Pittsburgh	69.5	2
48	Tulane	69.5	2.5
49	Cincinnati	69	1.5
50	Duke	69	3.5
51	Boston College	68.5	2
52	Virginia Tech	68.5	2
53	Michigan State	68	2
54	North Carolina State	68	2
55	Boise State	67.5	3.5
56	California	67	2
57	Kentucky	67	2
58	Navy	67	2
59	Virginia	67	2
60	Arizona	66.5	2
61	Colorado	66	2
62	Memphis	64.5	2.5
63	Texas State	64.5	2
64	James Madison	64	3
65	Maryland	64	2
66	UCF	64	2
67	Northwestern	63.5	1.5
68	West Virginia	63.5	2
69	Syracuse	63	2.5
70	Toledo	63	3
71	North Carolina	62.5	2
72	UTSA	62.5	3.5
73	Fresno State	62	2
74	Ohio	62	3.5
75	UNLV	61	2.5
76	East Carolina	60	2
77	Connecticut	59.5	2.5
78	Louisiana-Lafayette	59.5	2
79	North Texas	59.5	2
80	Oklahoma State	59.5	2
81	UCLA	59.5	2
82	Old Dominion	59	1.5
83	Oregon State	58.5	3.5
84	Air Force	58	2
85	Army	58	2.5
86	Wyoming	58	2
87	Appalachian State	57.5	2
88	Western Kentucky	57.5	2.5
89	Wake Forest	57	2
90	Buffalo	56.5	2
91	San Jose State	56.5	2.5
92	South Alabama	56.5	2
93	Georgia Southern	55.5	3.5
94	Liberty	55.5	3
95	Purdue	55.5	1
96	Troy	55.5	3
97	Miami (Ohio)	55	2.5
98	Utah State	55	2
99	Jacksonville State	54.5	3.5
100	Hawai’i	54	2
101	Colorado State	53.5	2
102	Louisiana Tech	53.5	2
103	Washington State	53.5	3
104	Rice	53	3
105	Stanford	53	1
106	Coastal Carolina	52.5	2
107	Temple	52.5	2
108	Arkansas State	52	2
109	Bowling Green	52	2
110	Northern Illinois	52	1
111	Central Michigan	51.5	2
112	Florida International	51	2
113	Louisiana-Monroe	51	2
114	Nevada	51	1
115	Southern Mississippi	51	2
116	Missouri State	50	2
117	San Diego State	50	2
118	Florida Atlantic	49	2
119	New Mexico	49	2
120	Western Michigan	49	2
121	Georgia State	48	1
122	Marshall	48	3
123	Charlotte	47.5	1
124	UAB	47.5	2.5
125	Tulsa	46.5	1
126	UTEP	46	2
127	New Mexico State	45.5	2.5
128	Delaware	45	3
129	Eastern Michigan	44.5	2
130	Kennesaw State	44	1.5
131	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
132	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
133	Akron	41	2
134	Ball State	40.5	2.5
135	Massachusetts	39.5	1
136	Kent State	34.5	1

Here are my Week 3 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Northwestern +1, FIU +3, Texas Tech +1, NC State +1, Jacksonville State +3.5, Iowa +1, UConn +1, Illinois +1.5, Utah State +2.5, Kentucky +1, Missouri +2.5, Fresno State +2, Troy +1.5, Oregon +3, Texas State +4, Ohio +3, South Florida +4, Arkansas +2, Missouri State +2.5, Army +1, Tulane +1.5, Toledo +3, Houston +2, Vanderbilt +2.5, Louisiana Tech +1, Mississippi State +3.5, Oklahoma +2, USC +3.5, UNLV +1.5, Minnesota +1, Florida State +1.5, Temple +2, Wyoming +2.5, Miami (FL) +3, Tennessee +2, Rutgers +2, UAB +1

Down: Louisville -3, Northern Illinois -1.5, Maryland -1, Kent State -3, San Jose State -2.5, Liberty -3, Syracuse -3, SMU -1, Clemson -4, UTSA -4, Colorado -3, West Virginia -2.5, Florida -3.5, Arkansas State -3, Sam Houston State -3, Marshall -4, North Carolina -4.5, Kansas State -6, Georgia State -2, South Alabama -1.5, Western Kentucky -2.5, Virginia Tech -3, Akron -5, Michigan -2.5, Georgia Southern -2.5, UL Monroe -2.5, UCLA -6, Stanford -4, Georgia -1.5, UMass -2.5, Colorado State -2.5, Eastern Michigan -1.5, Oklahoma State -2, South Carolina -1.5, Coastal Carolina -1.5, San Diego State -2.5, Texas A&M -2, Arizona State -2

Some notes on the biggest movers:

South Florida +4: Okay, Bulls. I see you. The tough part about analyzing teams early in the season is wondering something along the lines of “Does Boise State suck post-Ashton Jeanty or is USF taking a big leap forward?” Both may be true, but the win over Florida certainly seems to answer one of those questions.

Texas State +4: I wasn’t sure about GJ Kinne’s squad coming into the season, but through two games, I’m back on board. Also, big whiff by me on UTSA. Jeff Traylor’s teams do end better than they start more often than not, but they look like the title of a Green Day album so far.

Mississippi State +3.5: I’m glad my VSiN colleague Stormy Buonantony made it out alive after the Bulldogs pulled the Arizona State upset. Two impressive performances for Jeff Lebby’s team in Year 2.

Jacksonville State +3.5: I talked a lot about Liberty being the best team in C-USA. Well, losing to a completely rebuilt Jacksonville State team isn’t a great look. That said, the Gamecocks played right with UCF in their first game and probably could have won. In other words, I don’t know if I upgraded them enough.

USC +3.5: The market seems a good bit higher on the Trojans than I am/was. I’m still not a huge Jayden Maiava guy, but I will say this – Miller Moss doesn’t look great at Louisville and that’s a move I really liked. Maybe Lincoln Riley does have a significant upgrade.

Miami (FL) +3: I was on Notre Dame in Week 1. I was not a Carson Beck believer coming out of Georgia and had worries about his performance coming off of major surgery. I’m starting to believe.

Ohio +3: The Bobcats were right there against Rutgers and beat West Virginia from the Big 12 despite a -2 TO margin and zero points in the second half. What a defensive effort, as they outgained WVU 429-250. Brian Smith’s bunch is for real in Athens.

Kansas State -6: Goodness gracious, what the hell is happening in the Little Apple? Army possessed the ball for over 40 minutes and won outright as a massive underdog. I’m still not low enough on Kansas State based on the market. By the way, it is worth noting that I don’t adjust my power ratings for the projected score or tempo. So, for example, when I was six points higher than the market on Kansas State (or how I have Iowa -38.5 this week with a total of 44.5), it wasn’t adjusted for the service academy environment. That said, my line was still dead wrong.

UCLA -6: Chip Kelly’s abrupt departure put UCLA in a tough spot and they went with a cheap hire in DeShaun Foster. It has not worked at all. Neither has the money that they paid to Nico Iamaleava. A complete tear down is brewing for the Bruins.

Akron -5: If we got together 105 random VSiN subscribers to make a football team, we’d also have as many points this season as Akron has scored. Hell, maybe we’d have more.

North Carolina -4.5: Market adjustment here, but if you look at that 20-3 win over Charlotte, it’s not as impressive as it seems. UNC only outgained Charlotte by 31 yards. The 49ers missed a FG, had a turnover on downs at the 20, threw a pick on 1st-and-Goal at the 9, and threw another pick in plus territory.

Clemson -4: Not sure what the deal is with the Tigers – I think Antonio Williams not being healthy has something to do with it – but two substandard performances so far for a team that I thought had the chance to be really, really good.

Stanford -4: Does Andrew Luck have any eligibility left? 

UTSA -4: Sheesh. What a gross start for the Roadrunners, who have allowed 85 points in two games. Texas State WR averaged 23.8 yards per reception and had 286 yards compared to 219 yards for UTSA on just 12 completions.

Marshall -4: Getting badly outgained and losing at home to Missouri State is probably not a great look early in the year. Maybe they should have kept Charles Huff and all the players who followed him to Southern Miss.

My Week 3 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/11	NC State	Wake Forest	+9
9/12	Colorado	Houston	-6.5
	Kansas State	Arizona	+1.5
	New Mexico	UCLA	-12.5
9/13	Memphis	Troy	+6
	Oklahoma	Temple	+29.5
	Oregon	Northwestern	+24
	Buffalo	Kent State	+21
	Central Michigan	Michigan	-32
	Clemson	Georgia Tech	+5.5
	Wisconsin	Alabama	-15
	South Alabama	Auburn	-26
	UConn	Delaware	+11.5
	Georgia	Tennessee	+1
	Pitt	West Virginia	+4
	Washington State	North Texas	-8
	Oregon State	Texas Tech	-22
	USC	Purdue	+24.5
	SMU	Missouri State	+22.5
	Louisiana	Missouri	-23
	Iowa State	Arkansas State	+25
	UTEP	Texas	-46.5
	South Florida	Miami (FL)	-16
	Liberty	Bowling Green	+1.5
	FAU	FIU	-4
	App State	Southern Miss	+4.5
	Ohio	Ohio State	-31.5
	Old Dominion	Virginia Tech	-11.5
	Western Michigan	Illinois	-31
	Jacksonville State	Georgia Southern	-4.5
	Arkansas	Mississippi	-8.5
	Vanderbilt	South Carolina	-6.5
	Eastern Michigan	Kentucky	-24.5
	Florida	LSU	-12
	Texas A&M	Notre Dame	-4.5
	East Carolina	Coastal Carolina	+5.5
	New Mexico State	Louisiana Tech	-10
	UMass	Iowa	-38.5
	Navy	Tulsa	+19.5
	Duke	Tulane	-3
	Utah	Wyoming	+18
	Akron	UAB	-9
	Air Force	Utah State	+1
	Middle Tennessee	Nevada	-10.5
	Texas State	Arizona State	-14
	Minnesota	Cal	+4
	Boston College	Stanford	+14.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Wisconsin +20.5 (+15) at Alabama: I don’t know. Maybe Alabama taking out some frustration on UL Monroe was the salve for the early part of the season. Maybe Florida State is just really good. Wisconsin looks very feisty on defense and I really like OC Jeff Grimes with this group. A much better hire than Phil Longo was.

Tennessee +4.5 vs. Georgia: Georgia had ZERO explosive plays in the win over Austin Peay. I guess this is a Governors team that beat MTSU by 20 in Week 1, so maybe they’ll be a force in the FCS ranks. Still, the Volunteers look super crisp on offense with Joey Aguilar. Josh Heupel was wrong about Nico Iamaleava, but he’s done well with that position in the past.

North Texas -5 (-8) vs. Washington State: For those who didn’t stay up to watch, there were some wild shenanigans in the Wazzu/SDSU game. The Cougars only had two scoring drives over 50 yards. I’m a big Skyler Cassity fan at UNT and I have to say, last week’s game against Western Michigan was not as close as the final score. It was a weird trip to Kalamazoo for the Mean Green (much like this trip to Denton for Wazzu), but Western Michigan only had 87 yards passing and just 3.8 yards per carry, even though they had 216 yards in total. UNT had 6.44 YPP to WMU’s 4.27.

Missouri State +27.5 (+22.5) vs. SMU: A brutal spot for SMU here coming off of a big overtime game against Baylor, as they go from Dallas to Springfield. It’s a big number against a Missouri State team that can throw it around the yard a bit. While they only beat Marshall by one point, the Bears had 474 yards and outgained the Herd by 200 yards.

Wyoming +22.5 (+18) vs. Utah: This is a line that has been dropping a little bit already. The Cowboys have been outstanding on defense in their first two games. This is a total of 48 with a spread that was about half of the total, so there’s some correlation between the spread moving down and the low-scoring expectation in Laramie.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.