The Week 3 college football schedule starts on Thursday this week after giving the NFL the standalone spotlight to kick off its season. Also, we have a much more interesting slate of marquee games, particularly in the SEC, headlined by Georgia vs. Tennessee.
I talked about it in last week’s Opening Line Report, but the early parts of the season are so fascinating in the betting markets. Overreactions and under-reactions are flavors of the day and we also end up getting a lot of differences of opinion regarding what’s real and what’s not. Sharp bettors are usually able to hone in on these inefficiencies and find ways to make winning wagers, though some of the smarter people that I know in this space had very tough weeks.
Even though we have two or three data points for most teams at this point, the sheer size and scope of the transfer portal and coaching carousel create a lot of uncertainties and questions for programs across the nation. By no means are all of them solved by this week, so we could be looking at a high-variance environment once again, one ripe for upsets and blowouts.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 3 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, September 7 at 9:30 p.m. PT
NC State (-7, 54.5) vs. Wake Forest
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
All feels right in the world when we get a Thursday night ACC game. I’m really only mentioning this one because it is a standalone game to start the Week 3 college football schedule. We’ve seen some Over interest, probably not a surprise after NC State played a 35-31 game with Virginia last week. That said, Wake Forest beat Kennesaw State 10-9 in their lone game against a FBS opponent, so I wonder if we’ll see buyback quickly on this total.
Kansas State at Arizona (PK, 54.5)
Friday, 9 p.m. ET
Easily the most interesting of Friday’s three-pack of games because of how Kansas State has looked thus far. The Wildcats lost to Iowa State in Dublin, barely beat North Dakota in their home opener, and then got upset by Army as over a two-touchdown favorite last week. I don’t know that bettors are excited about Arizona and head coach Brent Brennan, but so far we’ve seen some Arizona interest. I can’t help but chuckle at how Circa opened the game pick ‘em and said “y’all can figure it out”.
Memphis (-5, 51) at Troy
Saturday, Noon ET
The first Week 3 college football game on the board by rotation number has seen immediate underdog money. Memphis opened -7 at Circa and got dropped to -5, while some shops even went down to -4.5. I wasn’t enamored with Memphis picking up Nevada transfer Brendon Lewis and I don’t think other bettors are either. The Tigers are 2-0, but they’ve played a couple really poor teams. Troy, meanwhile, kept Clemson under wraps for a while last week.
Buffalo (-21, 49.5) at Kent State
Saturday, Noon ET
Alright. This is a conversation that we had back in Week 1 when money was hitting the board on Akron against Wyoming. When really, really, really, really awful teams get some love, it is a pretty shocking development. And one that deserves attention. Kent State fits the bill of being really awful. Maybe the dictionary definition of it. But, there were a lot of anti-Buffalo people entering the season because of some regression signs from last year. I’d say those people are voicing their opinions here. It doesn’t take a lot to drop from -23 to -21, especially on Sunday afternoon/night, but I’m not sure I’d have the stones to ever bet on Kent State.
Clemson (-4, 52) at Georgia Tech
Saturday, Noon ET
Clemson did not look good last week against Troy. I don’t know what the issue is with Dabo Swinney’s team. Antonio Williams has been out, something I noted in my Week 3 College Football Power Ratings update when I talked about how I dropped the Tigers four points. Haynes King did not play last week for Georgia Tech, so he should be plenty rested here in a game that will have a huge impact on the ACC CFP automatic bid, as a loss for Clemson really makes things interesting with how Florida State and Miami look thus far.
Oh, as far as the line movement, Clemson opened -6 at DraftKings and -5 at Circa, where Circa bettors pushed the opening number up to -6 and midday bettors pulled it back down to -4. So, some early-week differences of opinion.
Georgia (-4, 49.5) at Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
The aforementioned Georgia vs. Tennessee game has been an active one thus far. DraftKings opened Georgia -5.5 and sat at -4.5 at time of writing, while Circa opened -6, took a hit up to -6.5, and then got bet all the way down to -4 as midday bettors got involved. As the game of the week, this one will draw a hefty handle and I’ll be keeping close tabs to see where this goes.
South Florida at Miami (FL) (-16, 54.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
The early darlings of the college football season are the Bulls, who rolled over Boise State in Week 1 and then followed it up by beating Big Brother in Gainesville. If the Bulls can beat the Hurricanes, it is going to be a major story. As it is, the Bulls are now the co-favorite for the Group of Five CFP berth at +450 alongside Tulane. That was NOT where they were lined coming into the season, as Tulane was the second favorite behind Boise State, who is well down the board now.
Bettors are not believing in the Bulls in the early going, as Miami has grown across the board, but, again, it doesn’t take much to move from 15 to 16 with no numbers of significance in the mix.
Liberty (-6.5, 51.5) at Bowling Green
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET
This is a perfect example of why box score study is important. You can predict line moves or even get ahead of some by analyzing what took place in the previous game. I hate Liberty right now because I have a good bit of exposure on them to win Conference USA, but they lost to Jacksonville State last week. If you take a deeper look, they got a little bit unfortunate, as they racked up 534 yards, including 335 through the air, but only scored 24 points. The Flames were -2 in TO margin, including a fumble on their first drive. They missed a 27-yard field goal.
However, I think some may be blinded about what happened. Liberty had three big explosive plays with a 52-yard TD run, 62-yard TD catch, and 72-yard TD catch. They had 5.5 YPP on their other 63 offensive plays. Curious to see if this line move works out, but Liberty did go up a tad from the opening line.
Middle Tennessee at Nevada (-9, 45.5)
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET
Obviously this is a weird spot, as the men of Murfreesboro go to Reno, but this is a sign of just how terrible MTSU is. Nevada is a bad team. They’re not a good bet as a favorite as a result, but we’ve seen this line go up. Circa took a Wolf Pack hit at -8 and moved to -9. There are some in the market at -9.5 as of Sunday night. The Blue Raiders appear to be in for a long season after losing to Austin Peay by 20 in the opener and then got outclassed by Wisconsin, who has taken a little money against Alabama thus far.
Duke at Tulane (-3.5, 53)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
This is a game about knowing your clientele. Circa went from -2.5 to -3.5, blowing right through the key number of 3. The rest of the market was on -3 with varying juice at time of writing. Duke faced Illinois last week with a line that seemed a little bit suspicious. Illinois was one of the most popular public picks of the week and they pummeled the Blue Devils. Tulane played Northwestern in Week 1 and shut them down in a 23-3 win, but really struggled with South Alabama last week in a 33-31 win. In fact, the Jaguars had a two-point attempt with 59 seconds left to tie the game, but failed.
Side note: this is the Darian Mensah Revenge Game, as the Duke QB faces his old program. Jon Sumrall was very vocal about Tulane’s focus against Northwestern when the Wildcats refused to let Tulane wear white to honor the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. I wonder if they have a little extra juice with Mensah back in NOLA.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
