College Football Picks
Most of the Week 3 college football picks will feature non-conference games, but we are starting to get into the more meaningful part of the schedule. Thus far, we’ve had just five conference games. That changes this week with 15 conference matchups, including several in the SEC.
That extra degree of familiarity typically creates a lower-variance environment given that teams have prepared for those coaches and those players in the past, but in the era of the transfer portal and the rapidly-spinning coaching carousel, that is not always the case. But, those games still feel a little more projectable than some of the Little Brother vs. Big Brother paycheck games or some of the other heavy mismatches on paper.
These are my favorite Week 3 college football picks, but we have many others. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
You can also check out our Week 3 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more.
Here are my Week 3 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, September 10, 1:00 p.m. PT
Washington State vs. North Texas (-6, 59) Prediction
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
North Texas might finally be putting it all together. The hire of former Sam Houston DC Skyler Cassity should do wonders on that side of the ball for the Mean Green and they’re always going to have a solid offense. Last week’s 33-30 win over Western Michigan looks a little too close for comfort, but it was a bit of an odd spot for North Texas going up to Kalamazoo. Also, UNT outgained WMU by 100 yards and only had the ball for 23:22 of regulation.
Washington State faces a tricky spot of their own now, as the boys from Pullman have to go to Denton to play in the extreme heat of the day. Temperatures for the 2:30 p.m. local time kickoff are expected to be around their peak at 94 degrees. It won’t be as humid as Texas usually is, but still. It will be an unpleasant environment for the Pacific Northwesterners.
Western Michigan was able to lean on the North Texas defense and eventually tire them out a bit by running the football. Washington State had 0.1 yards per carry on 22 attempts against Idaho and 3.9 yards per carry in a very strange game against San Diego State. The Cougars had a safety and a bunch of short scoring drives in the 36-13 win. Also, the Aztecs might just be really bad.
This looks like a little bit of a short price on North Texas. My Week 3 college football power ratings have the Mean Green -8 in this one, so I love getting it under a touchdown.
Pick: North Texas -6
SMU (-28, 61.5) vs. Missouri State Pick
3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Missouri State’s first home game as a FBS member is on Saturday, as they bounced back from a 60-point loss to USC with a 21-20 win over Marshall. The Bears outgained the Herd by 200 yards (474-274) and had 388 passing yards on just 22 completions. Scoring 21 points was a bit of a downer, as they missed two field goals, including one where they had 3rd-and-Goal at the goal line, got an offensive pass interference penalty, and then took a sack. There were also a couple of plus-territory punts in the mix.
SMU games have been pretty high-variance so far, as they’ve turned the ball over four times and also had five takeaways. Both teams have allowed 10 red zone trips for the opposition, but the Mustangs have only given up three touchdowns. Missouri State has allowed seven. Collectively, the two defenses have allowed 22 plays of 20+ yards.
The expected game state here means that Missouri State will continue to rely on QB Jacob Clark and the pass offense is a lot better than the ground game. SMU probably has a good chance to put up big numbers here, as they have some frustration to let out before the rivalry game against TCU next week. Also, some of the backups coming into the game might get to run the playbook as it’s designed, as this is a team that lost a lot from last season.
It will be hot on Saturday in Springfield, but there is no rain in the forecast. We could see the defenses get a bit gassed as the game goes along, especially for a Missouri State team still trying to build depth with the transition from FCS to FBS. I think we get a lot of points here. Shop around, as some books have 61 and others have 61.5. With the consensus on 61.5, I’ll call it that, but keep an eye out.
Pick: SMU/Missouri State Over 61.5
East Carolina (-7.5, 55.5) at Coastal Carolina Prediction
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
I’ll preface this by saying that I really like East Carolina and what they’re doing under head coach Blake Harrell. Harrell took over for Mike Houston last season and led the team to a 5-1 record, including a win over NC State in the Military Bowl. Harrell’s been a longtime DC throughout his coaching career and he’s been able to fix and improve that side of the ball while letting OC John David Baker cook on offense.
The Pirates have struggled to find potency in the rushing game thus far, but they’ve been a pass-first offense anyway, as QB Katin Houser has a completion rate near 70% with a 3/0 TD/INT ratio. Obviously we didn’t learn much against Campbell in Week 2, but Houser threw for 366 yards against NC State in the season opener. ECU turned it over on downs in NC State territory three times, doing so on 4th-and-4, 4th-and-2, and 4th-and-1, with the final one coming on the 10-yard-line with a chance at the potential game-tying score.
While the Pirates have had a lot of positives, Coastal Carolina has had virtually none. They got waxed 48-7 by a Virginia team that NC State just beat 35-31. They beat a poor Charleston Southern team 13-0, a Buccaneers bunch ranked 215th in the nation by Jeff Sagarin. QB MJ Morris has zero touchdowns and four interceptions while trying to grasp Tim Beck and Drew Hollingshead’s offense. Hollingshead was at Western Kentucky, so this offense has a lot of Air Raid concepts, a problem with an inaccurate QB who doesn’t take care of the football.
The Chants scored 10 of their 13 points in the fourth quarter against Charleston Southern. The QBs were collectively 16-of-27 for 139 yards with zero TD and three picks. Jeremiah Johnson’s defense did well, but the Bucs have no offense. East Carolina has an offense.
Pick: East Carolina -7.5
Utah (-23.5, 48.5) at Wyoming Prediction
8 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Utah was the preseason darling in the Big 12 thanks to transfer QB Devon Dampier. So far, Dampier has completed 79% of his passes and has six total touchdowns, with five through the air and one on the ground. It is pretty obvious that the coaching staff is trying to use the early part of the season to get him to develop as a passer. He only completed 57.9% of his passes at New Mexico last season with a 12/12 TD/INT ratio.
I think this is a pretty big test for the Utes against a Wyoming team that is almost always up to the task on defense and has an interesting QB of their own in Kaden Anderson. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound Texas native has drawn the obvious comparisons to Josh Allen because of his team and size and, while I have no interest in putting that label on him, he does have a big arm and has only been sacked four times on 179 pass attempts.
Utah simply outclassed a UCLA team that appears to be in shambles and then crushed a helpless Cal Poly team. Wyoming hasn’t played anybody either, as they shut out Akron on the road and beat Northern Iowa, who is down a few notches this season. But, I do expect this to be a slow, methodical game. Utah probably won’t find all of the explosive plays that they’ve found early this season, as the Cowboys defense seems improved under second-year DC Aaron Bohl, son of former head coach Craig Bohl. Aaron is only 31 and one of the top young coaches in the country. The Cowboys led the nation in third-down defense last season and are shining in that area again this season.
Also, with the low-scoring expectation in the upper 40s, getting a 23-point head start (or 23.5 if you shop around) is a big deal. Utah has yet to find a go-to receiver with Ryan Davis’ 80 yards at the top of the column, but he’s averaging under nine yards per catch. It will be tough for them to run away and hide in Laramie.
Pick: Wyoming +23.5
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