Week 3 College Football Predictions:

Week 3 is a little light on games with College Football Playoff implications, but don’t let the lack of marquee games fool you. We’ve got a lot of good ones, or at least very interesting ones, even if the Top 25 battles that grab all the headlines are limited.

I’ve leaned on my College Football Power Ratings and looked at some of the other qualitative and quantitative factors for this round of games and there are some that definitely jump off the page to me. I’ve also got an Arizona State vs. Texas State opinion for Thursday and a UNLV vs. Kansas opinion for Friday.

 

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Here are my Week 3 College Football Predictions:

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at NC State Wolfpack (-21.5, 49)

Saturday, Noon ET (ACC)

I am very much aware that opinions have soured on NC State. Mine has soured as well, given that I’ve moved them down four points in my power ratings already this season. And, yet, my line in this one is NC State -27.

Louisiana Tech has one data point, as the Bulldogs beat FCS Nicholls 25-17 all the way back on August 31. The poorly-timed bye might be enough to make some improvements, but the Bulldogs had just 5.3 yards per play in that game and turned the football over five times. QB Blake Baker was only 12-of-24 and got sacked twice to go with two picks.

NC State started slow against Western Carolina and racked up a large percentage of their offensive yardage in the fourth quarter with a 21-point barrage. I know that they got waxed by Tennessee last week, but the Vols look like a pretty damn good team and Nico Iamaleava looks like a dude.

I think this is a “get-right game” for NC State with Clemson on deck to open up ACC play. Grayson McCall is still a really good college QB and Jordan Waters was an excellent running back at Duke. This is a spot where NC State should let out a little frustration and pour it on an overmatched opponent.

There are a few 21s out there and that, obviously, is preferable to -21.5.

Pick: NC State -21.5

Washington State Cougars vs. Washington Huskies (-4.5, 56)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)

This year’s version of the Apple Cup will be played at Lumen Field in Seattle, so it won’t be at Husky Stadium, but I still give UDub a bit of a home-field bias for the game. There’s certainly a lot of excitement with the program coming off of a College Football Playoff appearance, not to mention a much shorter trek for a good portion of the fan base. Also, Wazzu doesn’t even have a conference and the orphaned program and its fans are wondering what’s next.

But, more than those factors, Washington is just the better team and I think they’re undervalued. Their 30-9 win over Eastern Michigan wasn’t overly impressive, but they racked up 8.8 yards per play in that one. They also methodically beat Weber State in Week 1.

I also think Wazzu is getting too much credit for last week’s win over Texas Tech. The Cougs were +3 in TO margin and only had one touchdown drive of more than 43 yards. They also gave up almost 500 yards of offense, most of it through the air, where I think Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers will thrive with the Husky offense.

My power ratings fall in line with liking Washington as well. In giving UW two points for HFA, I have the line at 11. So, even if we call this a full-fledged neutral setting, I still have Washington -9 and that’s more than enough of an overlay for me to trust.

DraftKings is the high water mark at 5 at time of publish, but plenty of 4.5s are available out there.

Pick: Washington -4.5

Nevada Wolf Pack at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-17.5, 43.5)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

It’ll be an early kick for the boys from Reno as they head to the Twin Cities to take on Minnesota. Nevada might have a little bit of hidden Over value in this game. The Wolf Pack only scored 17 points on Georgia Southern last week, which looks rather embarrassing when you consider Boise State dropped 56 on the Eagles in Week 1, but the box score is worthy of a look.

Nevada had 498 yards worth of offense and actually outgained Georgia Southern by more than 200 yards. The Wolf Pack racked up 77 offensive plays and 6.5 YPP, including 5.4 yards per carry. I’m not saying that they’ll find that same measure of success against Minnesota, but the Wolf Pack deserved to score more than 17 points.

The game ended with the Wolf Pack on the 5-yard-line. They had two plus-territory turnovers on downs and also had a fumble deep in Georgia Southern territory.

I also feel like Minnesota is way more balanced now with Max Brosmer than they were with Athan Kaliakmanis. This feels like an offense cut more from the Tanner Morgan cloth, so the Golden Gophers aren’t just a one-dimensional group. They’ve only rushed for 2.7 yards per carry, so the ground game hasn’t gotten going, but their physicality is something Nevada hasn’t seen yet through three games.

I like some points in this one, especially with no weather concerns at all.

Pick: Nevada/Minnesota Over 43.5

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-7, 55) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

The consensus number is -7 across the market with some shops showing a little bit of extra juice for Saturday’s Conference USA clash in Murfreesboro. The two teams have pretty similar bodies of work so far, as each team was bludgeoned by a SEC opponent and beat a FCS opponent. In WKU’s case, it was a 31-0 triumph over Eastern Kentucky in a game that had a little bad blood coming in. In MTSU’s case, it was Tennessee Tech by a touchdown in Week 1.

Middle Tennessee got outgained by the Golden Eagles in Week 1 and actually trailed 25-24 before a seven-play, 75-yard drive in 44 seconds to win the game on a Frank Peasant 30-yard TD run. Tennessee Tech QB Jordyn Potts efficiently spread the ball around going 27-of-38 for 256 yards with three touchdowns.

I have no doubt that five-year CFB veteran T.J. Finley, who transferred in from Texas State after posting a 24/8 TD/INT ratio with a 67.4% completion rate and nearly 3,500 passing yards will be able to do something similar and then some.

The Blue Raiders are in a big transition year going from Rick Stockstill to Derek Mason. Stockstill had been with the team for over 15 years and all of the players were based on his schemes and wants. It’ll take time in Murfreesboro and I think we will see that this week.

Pick: Western Kentucky -7

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