Week 3 College Football Predictions
Another chaotic weekend in college football has come and gone, and I don’t know about you guys but I had one of my worst betting days I can remember on Saturday. It was one of those days where every fluky turnover, 50/50 call, and bounce of the ball went the opposite way. Those things tend to even out in the long run but it’s extremely frustrating in the moment. Nonetheless, I am confident in the process and we’re still up for the season, so let’s hop back in the saddle and see where there’s early week value for Week 3, according to the T Shoe Index.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Texas Tech (-24.5) vs. Oregon State, O/U 60.5
Texas Tech has looked like a juggernaut through two games against bottom-tier competition in Kent State and Arkansas Pine Bluff. These gaudy scores have created a huge market inflation on the Red Raiders, and they’ll host 0-2 Oregon State this weekend as 3.5 touchdown favorites. TSI projects TTU -17.5 in this matchup, and based on the early point spreads and season win totals, the market estimated ratings only make this game TTU -11, which speaks to the inflation of Tech that I mentioned. This is not a case of me thinking Oregon State is some great team, but it’s a numbers game and in this case, the number is way too inflated on the favorite here, plus we’re getting a great number above 24.
College Football Pick: Oregon State +24 or better
Auburn (-25.5) vs. South Alabama, O/U 53.5
Auburn looked great against Baylor on the road in its opener and then again against a severely overmatched opponent in Ball State. South Alabama shocked much of the betting world by even remaining close to Tulane last week. TSI projects Auburn -24.5 here, so not a ton of value on the surface, but looking deeper at both the market estimated ratings and how these teams have graded out in TSI so far in 2025 all point to a South Alabama cover. Based on how these teams have been priced so far, this line should be about 23.5, and the on-field data only makes it Auburn -13.5. All of these signs point towards the Jaguars, so I’m rolling with the numbers in a lookahead spot for Auburn, with Oklahoma on deck.
College Football Pick: South Alabama +24.5 or better
Missouri (-24.5) vs. Louisiana, O/U 48.5
Missouri is coming off a huge “border war” win over Kansas on Saturday to improve to 2-0 on the season. Louisiana lost a tight game to Rice before beating FCS McNeese last week to go 1-1 to start the season. I think this is a terrific sandwich spot to back the Ragin’ Cajuns, as Missouri has South Carolina on deck and just played a rivalry game with Kansas. TSI projects Missouri -20 in this game, which is perfectly aligned with the market estimation of how these teams have been priced so far this season. We’re getting a discount on Louisiana, and I’m going to buy the 24.5 here.
College Football Pick: Louisiana +24 or better
For more Week 3 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 3 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
