Week 4 College Football Best Bets:

Last week was a good example of how even a very disciplined systems bettor can let things get away on occasion. For those of you following my CFB Stability Mismatch plays for the first three weeks, hopefully, you stayed committed to it. That system brought home a 9-4 ATS final week and a 23-14 ATS finish overall. Unfortunately, instead of sticking to all of the games on a system I have run religiously for the last 13 years and have been successful EVERY year, instead I chose to share only my favorite plays from that 13-game list for this particular Best Bets column. I went wayward on several other plays, some of which were never actually even contested regarding the point spread. As a result, I took what could have been a very strong week and turned it into a mediocre .500 result. I will try to be more careful moving forward and press on to Week 4 here still five games over .500 for the season and looking to build on that with the following set of games:

 

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South Alabama at Appalachian State

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

For as much as the stability plays are over for the season, South Alabama still has a lot of things to work out in terms of its new coaching/personnel for 2024. Totally discounting the useless 87-10 win last week versus Northwestern State, the Jaguars did not play well in their first two games, one of which was a conference game. 

After beating a 36.5-point spread by 40.5 points last week, they are now a play-against according to this system we have used several times successfully already in 2024: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 130-175-1 ATS (42.6%) over the last decade-plus. 

South Alabama is also just 15-34 ATS coming off a win since 2014. Meanwhile, Appalachian State opens Sun Belt play here and should be a top contender again this season. QB Joey Aguilar has looked sharp so far with 964 yards passing and should be able to carve up the Jaguars’ defense. The Mountaineers have beaten USA 83-14 in the last two times hosting in head-to-head play.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 7 points with Appalachian State here

Illinois at Nebraska

Friday, 8:00 p.m. (FOX)

I have been writing about these Ranked vs. Ranked Systems almost every week for the last year-plus since we introduced the CFB Analytics Reports. I just love them because they demonstrate how important home-field advantage is in the big games, especially when they are supposed to be tight. 

This Illinois-Nebraska game qualifies for the 3-sequence: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 172-85 SU and 146-103-8 ATS (58.6%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 104-18 SU and 76-42-4 ATS (64.4%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 54-15 SU & 47-19-3 ATS (71.2%) since 2017. 

The Cornhuskers won head-to-head in Champaign last year 20-7, and in my opinion, head coach Matt Rhule’s 2024 team is far better than its predecessor. Lincoln figures to be jacked for this too.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 8 points with Nebraska in this one

Virginia at Coastal Carolina

Saturday, 2:00 pm. ET (ESPN+)

Do yourself a favor and look ahead at Virginia’s rest of the season schedule following this game against Coastal Carolina. To say it is difficult would be a vast understatement. Following next week’s bye, the Cavaliers will play eight straight ACC games, and none of them are against weaker teams in the conference. In fact, its reasonable to say they will be a formidable underdog in every one of them. 

That makes this game against Coastal Carolina an almost must-win if they are to maintain any shot of potentially making a bowl game in 2024. Is head coach Tony Elliott’s team good enough to win a must-game? That’s for us to decide, but I will tell you I like the chances. This is an experienced UVA team that brought back 16 starters this season and QB Anthony Colandrea has taken over the QB position and thrown for 901 yards and 69% completion percentage in three games. They also pulled out a nice road win in Week 2 at Wake Forest. Coastal Carolina has played three games and has allowed 22.7 PPG to three very questionable offenses. I believe the Cavaliers will score and it’s a reason they are favored.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with Virginia -2.5  

Miami (FL) at South Florida

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Just how good is Miami? I am somewhat surprised at the prolific start to the season, although it is easily explainable in the massive upgrade this program received at quarterback. Cam Ward is the real deal and has the talent and experience to lead this otherwise very talented roster to new heights. Coming off a 62-0 rout of Ball State, the Hurricanes fall into the systems that says to ride teams off of uber-dominant performances. 

Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 137-100 ATS (57.8%). Head coach Mario Cristobal’s team is outscoring opponents 159-26 so far! Meanwhile, South Florida has gotten me wins in both of the last two weeks on my stability system, but to be perfectly honest, I don’t think the Bulls are firing on all cylinders yet. This isn’t a good spot for a team that isn’t.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Miami is playing well enough to lay the 16.5 points at USF

California at Florida State

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Sometimes, when things go south for a program unexpectedly, it makes sense to just continue riding against them. Obviously, you know I’m referring to Florida State, who is 0-3 now and has totally unraveled since the CFP kept them on the outside last December controversially. Instead of an event like that putting a chip on the shoulders of the Seminoles, it ripped apart their psyche. They have gone from clear CFP contender in 2024 to a team on the ropes for potentially not even making a bowl game. 

The schedule for the next three weeks is not easy as FSU gets into the bulk of conference play. That’s going to be tough to deal with since they are just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 conference games. At the same time, the opponent for this week, California, is playing above expectation and coming off a 31-10 rout of San Diego State. The Golden Bears have already won at Auburn this season and are 25-13 ATS as an underdog since 2018. This is their first ever ACC game and they will be looking to make a statement.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: California looks like a very live dog at +2.5

Ohio at Kentucky

Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

I wasn’t able to pull anything specific off of the Analytics Report for this game, but it does fit a couple of different beliefs I have in regard to handicapping college football. First and foremost, I believe that teams laying over 20 points have to have proven their worth offensively. Kentucky hasn’t done that, averaging just 16.3 PPG and 261.3 YPG thus far. 

It wasn’t completely unexpected either, as replacing QB Devin Leary was never going to be easy in 2024. Secondly, there is an actual thing called a letdown from week-to-week. Bettors often only focus on a win over a big rival as a letdown spot for the next week. Well, how about a near miss over the country’s supposed best team in a game that would have completely flipped the near-future fortunes of head coach Mark Stoops’ team? Instead, they are left to lament what might have been. No doubt Kentucky has the better talent in this matchup, I will strongly suggest they won’t have the will they would have had last week’s Georgia game finished differently.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Laying 20 points with Kentucky seems crazy, take Ohio as the dog

Rutgers at Virginia Tech

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACCN)

I wrote earlier about the differing 2024 fortunes for Cal and Florida State thus far. Well, it’s not a whole lot different in this matchup between Rutgers and Virginia Tech. The Scarlet Knights have performed better than expected in their first two games, particularly offensively, where they’ve put up 495.5 YPG. There was some concern about the QB position this year, but QB Athan Kaliakmanis, a transfer from Minnesota, looks very comfortable behind a line that has dominated thus far. Their 49-17 win vs. Akron continued a trend of doing very well in non-conference play, 12-3 ATS in the last 15. 

Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has underperformed to date, and after bringing back the country’s most starting experience from a year ago, sits at 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. Although the Hokies come off their best performance of the young season, a 37-17 win over Old Dominon, they are 5-19 ATS in the last 24 games following up a SU win. I just don’t feel like head coach Brent Pry’s team is clicking, and this is too close of a matchup to lay points in an underperforming vs. overperforming game.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Rutgers as the +3.5-point dog in a game I expect to be tight

Fresno State at New Mexico

Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET (TRUTV)

This is one of the stranger revenge scenario games you’ll see this year in college football, in that it involves a team that was 4-8 last year beating one that finished 9-4. It was certainly an unexpected upset win for the Lobos, as they were 21.5-point road underdogs, and they had won a combined total of nine games over the prior 8-1/2 seasons. 

That said, it should make Fresno State’s hunger for payback this week even greater, and there are three particular revenge bits of data that catch my eye here: First, FSU is 15-7 ATS in revenge mode since 2016. Second, teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 206-161 ATS (56.1%) since 2016. Third, double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 47-34 ATS (58%) since 2016. On top of all that, the Bulldogs are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run at New Mexico, with an average score of 40.8-18.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Fresno State should take care of business at -14

Georgia Southern at Ole Miss

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

As of Wednesday, the team with the most betting support in terms of handle at DraftKings was Ole Miss, with 86% of the money going in that direction in the game versus Georgia Southern. I can’t blame bettors for thinking Lane Kiffin will just stick it to the Eagles like he has been doing to all other opponents in his way so far this season, but I actually don’t see it that way. As it turns out, Ole Miss had some extra motivation last week versus Wake Forest, with the Demon Deacons backing out of a game next year prior to last week’s contest. From the sounds of it, that irked Kiffin quite a bit. 

I don’t see such resentment for this game, especially since the Rebels would be better served saving their best efforts for conference play, which starts next week against Kentucky. So, there is a lookahead danger and what I believe to be a lack of motivation to crush GSU. This will be a good win if it’s 28. 34, or 40 points. Head coach Clay Helton’s Eagles have proven they can score. They put up 45 on Boise State in the opener and are 3-0 ATS. They also come off a game in which they won 42-14 as 27.5-point favorites, putting this system in place: CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 94-63 ATS (59.9%).

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Georgia Southern is potent enough to cover the +36

Tennessee at Oklahoma

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

There is some legitimate argument right now as to who the best team in the country is. Tennessee is certainly in the running with its early season performance, outscoring opponents 63.7-4.3 so far on average. I knew QB Nico Iamaleava was going to be good this year after what he did to Iowa in the bowl game last year, but he has surpassed my expectations for his dual-threat play-making ability. Right now, the Vols are averaging 639 YPG on offense, which is a huge edge on the 325 that the Sooners are producing. 

The numbers are a little closer on defense, but it’s still a nice edge for head coach Josh Heupel’s team. Coming off the 71-0 rout of Kent State, Tennessee qualifies for this system: Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 137-100 ATS. This is the conference opener for Heupel’s team, there’s no reason they won’t bring it, and the task difficulty convinces me will get their best effort.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Tennessee should be motivated enough to beat the 7 points

Northwestern at Washington

Saturday, 7:00 pm. ET (FS1)

I see a lot of analysts pointing to UCLA’s ugly performance against Indiana last week being an indication that these Pac-12 transfer teams might have bit off more than they can chew. The difference in that game and this one is almost EVERYTHING. Indiana is on fire, UCLA is stuck in a rebuilding season. There was little support for the Bruins in their home stadium as well. That is never the case for Washington, who hasn’t lost a game at home since 2021. 

If anything, this is about as difficult of a travel position that Northwestern could undergo in its first conference game of the year. I believe home-field advantage will mean a lot in these huge travel miles games, but only if the host team is competent enough to use it. Washington is that and more, and although the Huskies are 1-2 ATS so far, their defense has been stellar, holding teams 11 points below their scoring averages. If that happens this week, Northwestern will be bound for 10 points. I’ll take my chances with Washington, who is in a good spot here if that happens.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Lay the 10.5 points with Washington in their Big Ten opener

Tulane at Lousiana Lafayette

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

For as much as Tulane has already lost two games on the season, I certainly wouldn’t discount the ability to still reach the CFP as the Group of 5 representative. The losses were to Kansas State and Oklahoma, certainly nothing to discount, and they were competitive in both. What that means is that a game like this takes on uber importance. Louisiana is another team that would like to throw its name in the hat for the CFP, and the Ragin’s Cajuns are 2-0 right now after a less-than-challenging start. 

This is their first real challenge is what will be a tough seven-game stretch. The betting public is firmly behind the Green Wave here, 85% of bets, and that could actually be a good thing because of this: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). Tulane is also on a 41-21 ATS run when favored.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Tulane looks like the better team to me and needs the win. Lay the 3 points

Arizona State at Texas Tech

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

I would have thought that last week’s huge win for Texas Tech would have tilted the scales a little more to them in this week’s matchup with Arizona State, but it seems oddsmakers are putting a little more stock into ASU’s energetic start. The Sun Devils are 3-0, and after watching them come from behind to beat Texas State on the road in a very difficult environment, to me, they look like they could be a team with the grit and confidence to be a big winner this year for bettors. They are currently on a run of 24-13-1 (64.9%) ATS as an underdog since 2018. 

I like the fact that the 3-0 SU and ATS start has also included some real challenges too. ASU’s offense has been dynamic and balanced, and their defensive front has been stout in taking away opponents’ ground games. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders’ defense is allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, an ugly amount. ASU will be able to score in this one.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Arizona State at +3 should be a very live dog

Vanderbilt at Missouri

Saturday, 4:15 p.m. (SECN)

I have watched a good portion of the last two Missouri games, and I can tell you that for whatever reason, this offense doesn’t look like the same one that ended the 2023 season so well. QB Brady Cook has just two TD passes in the three games. Sure, the rushing numbers are up slightly, but that has come against three much lesser opponents than the SEC season will present. Lacking explosive plays usually leads to lower-scoring games. However, on the other side of the ball, the Tigers are just fine, in fact, they look dominant after three games, yielding just 7 PPG and 184 YPG. 

They will really challenge a Vandy offense that is off to a strong start, albeit against defenses far less than Mizzou’s. In their last six visits to Columbia, Vandy has averaged just 15.3 PPG, going Under the total all six times by nearly 10 PPG. The Commodores could be a little better defensively this season, too, and that unit brought back eight starters for 2024. They are allowing 21 PPG in the first three, after giving up 27 PPG in the same span last year. I expect a lower-scoring tilt here.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Under 53.5 looks like the play  

USC at Michigan

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

You won’t see too many games whose lines move nearly 20 points from opener to close, but that could be the case in this USC-Michigan contest for Saturday. Now granted, the opening line of Michigan -13 came out in the summer before any games were played, but even still, it goes to show that oddsmakers made a massive mistake in evaluating these teams in the offseason, or are making a massive overadjustment now based upon what we have seen. I am going to lean somewhat to the latter. 

Based upon a zero stability score, I knew Michigan would be down significantly from its championship season of 2023. However, the Wolverines are still at home this weekend, and that typically means a huge deal in ranked vs. ranked games: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 172-85 SU and 146-103-8 ATS (58.6%). The Big House in Ann Arbor isn’t your typical college home either, and it will be a very difficult environment for USC this weekend, both in terms of crowd size and travel. Could you imagine playing a first Big Ten game ever in this situation? 

It will be a real task for the Trojans, and in my opinion, we know very little about them at this point. The LSU win is losing a little luster after the Tigers continued defensive struggles, and Utah State was simply overmatched and down its starting QB. This will easily be the best defense and defensive front head coach Lincoln Riley’s team has faced. I also like the QB change made by the Wolverines. Besides Davis Warren being turnover-prone thus far, Alex Orji should help this team’s ground game significantly, and USC has been vulnerable against the run so far.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: For the first time in 2024, I’m backing Michigan, plus the 5.5 points

Florida Atlantic at Connecticut

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

After Florida Atlantic’s convincing win over FIU last week, seeing UConn open up as a 2.5-point favorite in the head-to-head matchup this week kind of startled me a bit. However, after a little closer look, I can see why that is the case, and I’m actually going to get behind the Huskies. 

As I pointed out last week, the Owls typically get up for their games against FIU, as it is a battle for regional supremacy. What they also do is not respond well to victories, going 4-15 (21.1%) ATS in the last 19 games following a SU win. FAU also benefitted greatly from turnovers in that contest, and FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 36-53 ATS (40.4%) in their next contest since 2012. 

Recall that in the games prior to FIU, head coach Tom Herman’s team scored just 17 points in its two games. In other words, this is an offense that is underperforming right now. In fact, they are scoring just 18.3 PPG against teams that are allowing 29 PPG. Meanwhile, head coach Jim Mora’s team is off to a solid offensive start, gaining about 415 YPG and, perhaps more importantly, a solid 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The Huskies are a much more capable offense at this point and hence the reason they are favored.

Week 4 College Football Best Bet: Connecticut as a -2.5 point home favorite, why not?

For more College Football Week 4 predictions, visit the College Football Week 4 Hub at VSiN.com.

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