Week 4 College Football Best Bets from Wes Reynolds:

Let’s take a look at my Week 4 College Football Best Bets.

 

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Buffalo at #23 Northern Illinois (-14.5; 43.5)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

It has been two weeks since Northern Illinois pulled the most shocking upset of the season, winning at Notre Dame as a four-touchdown underdog.

Now the Huskies deal with a different set of expectations as they begin MAC play against Buffalo before traveling to NC State to face the Wolfpack perhaps without QB Grayson McCall.

NIU head coach Thomas Hammock was obviously full of emotion after his team earned the biggest win in program history.

Northern Illinois, a physical, defensive-oriented team that runs the ball, is typically better suited for an underdog role than a favorite role, as evidenced by Hammock’s 7-18 ATS (4-16 ATS vs FBS) record as a favorite.

Pete Lembo is back as a head coach in the MAC for the first time since 2015. During his five years at Ball State from 2011-2015, he went 13-9 ATS as a road underdog. 

With a big number and a low total, plus the changed expectations, Northern Illinois should get more of a test than expected here.

College Football Best Bet: Buffalo +14.5

Memphis (-10; 50.5) at Navy

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (CBSSN)

Memphis is off to a 3-0 start and is right in the early mix for the G5 spot in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers are also off a win over Florida State (granted, they’re 0-3) with Ryan Silverfield beating his old boss and former Tigers head coach Mike Norvell, who left Memphis for Tallahassee.

This week, Memphis plays its second consecutive road game and American conference opener at Navy, who is off a bye week.

Most assuredly, the Tigers put all of their prep last week for Florida State and have a short time to get ready for Navy and the triple option with some new wrinkles from new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.

Service academy underdogs are historically a good bet and are a bit over 60% ATS over the last decade.

Memphis could be a little sleepy early.

College Football Best Bet: Navy +6.5 1H/+10 Game

#8 Miami (FL) (-17; 65) at South Florida

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Miami is one of the early buzz teams of this college football season. They are off to a 3-0 start with a win over Florida and two easy blowouts over Florida A&M and Ball State.

Last year, the Hurricanes started 4-0 before an inexplicable loss to Georgia Tech derailed their season. That may not happen this year, especially in a down ACC, but Miami is starting to get priced to the moon here.

This is not historically a profitable role for Mario Cristobal as he is just 23-32 ATS (41.8%) as a favorite during his tenures both at Miami and Oregon.

South Florida covered a big number (+31) at Alabama two weeks ago in a 42-16 loss, but that final score was misleading as it was 14-13 to start the fourth quarter.

This is obviously a big one for the Bulls who have plenty of players from the Miami-Dade area and may have gotten overlooked or were backup plans in recruiting.

College Football Best Bet: South Florida +17

UL-Monroe at #1 Texas (-45; 53)

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN+)

Arch Manning will start at QB for the Longhorns in place of Quinn Ewers, who is out with an abdominal injury. The Ewers injury does not seem to be season-threatening and Manning does not appear to be a drop off at all and might even be a little better.

Texas easily covered -35 and -35.5 against Colorado State and UTSA respectively. Now laying a much bigger number with its first SEC conference game (Mississippi State) on deck, there is a possibility that Steve Sarkisian lets the foot off the gas early with one QB already injured.

ULM also could benefit from the early by last week as they essentially have an entirely new team and staff.

College Football Best Bet: UL Monroe +45

East Carolina at Liberty (-6; 54)

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN+)

Liberty is one of the top choices to earn the G5 bid to College Football Playoff and they are off to a 3-0 start, but are 0-3 ATS.

Flames RB Quinton Cooley, a 1400-yard rusher last year, left last week’s game vs. UTEP with a back injury.

Mike Houston is 14-7 ATS as a road underdog at East Carolina.

College Football Best Bet: East Carolina +6

Charlotte at Indiana (-29; 49)

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. (BTN)

Curt Cignetti and Indiana are off to a 3-0 start and made a big statement last Saturday night in the Rose Bowl dominating UCLA, 42-13.

There is actual optimism, something rare in Bloomington, for Indiana Football. They are about to start 4-0 before next week’s home conference opener vs. Maryland.

Charlotte barely got by FCS Gardner-Webb last week and the 49ers are playing their third-string QB Trexler Ivey (freshman DeShawn Purdie will start if healthy).

This just might be a bit of a sell-high spot at a big number on Indiana as this is a “get through it” game before they have bigger fish to fry in conference play.

College Football Best Bet: Charlotte +29

For more College Football Week 4 predictions, visit the College Football Week 4 Hub at VSiN.com.

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