Week 4 College Football Betting Splits Picks and Systems:

If you haven’t been following my DK Betting Splits work over the last couple of years, these systems, and the splits, for that matter, have become popular. In short, the numbers that DK provides in this feed summarize the percentage of the money handle and number of bets there is on each side of a wagering option for the games in most major sports. In preseason articles I published in the 2023 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football. I continued tracking and updating those systems in order for bettors to focus on the best ways to use the numbers. Here are the updated numbers for this weekend’s college football action.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). This angle has produced at around 46% consistently since first discovered. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, RUTGERS, USC, NAVY, LSU, NORTHWESTERN, TENNESSEE, OLE MISS

 

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CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). In 2022 it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, INDIANA, ARMY, TULANE, UTAH STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, PENN STATE, USC, NOTRE DAME, LSU, DUKE, MISSOURI, COLORADO STATE, TCU, TOLEDO, SOUTH CAROLINA, IOWA, TENNESSEE, OLE MISS, COLORADO, TEXAS, FRESNO STATE, OREGON STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TULANE, FLORIDA, UTAH STATE, USC, DUKE, TCU, MIAMI (FL), TOLEDO, IOWA, TENNESSEE, FRESNO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS, NC STATE, BALL STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, BUFFALO, RUTGERS, ARKANSAS, EAST CAROLINA, NORTHWESTERN, BOWLING GREEN, PURDUE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and though it was down a bit for 2023, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SOUTHERN MISS, GEORGIA TECH, RUTGERS, ARKANSAS, CALIFORNIA, NEW MEXICO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in a FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 313-354 ATS (46.9%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE): OHIO STATE, NC STATE, INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI, ARMY, UTAH STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, PENN STATE, LSU, NOTRE DAME, DUKE, MISSOURI, COLORADO STATE, MIAMI (FL), SAM HOUSTON STATE, TOLEDO, NORTH TEXAS, SOUTH CAROLINA, OLE MISS, TEXAS, FRESNO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SOUTHERN MISS-JAX STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): RICE-ARMY, CALIFORNIA-FLORIDA STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). This system improved its win percentage in ‘23. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NC STATE-CLEMSON, OHIO-KENTUCKY, BUFFALO-N ILLINOIS, RUTGERS-VA TECH, MIAMI OH-NOTRE DAME, NEW MEXICO STATE-SAM HOUSTON STATE, AKRON-SOUTH CAROLINA

For more College Football Week 4 predictions, visit the College Football Week 4 Hub at VSiN.com.

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