Week 4 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 4 College Football

The variance of college football was very much on display in Week 3, leading to a lot of adjustments in my Week 4 College Football Power Ratings, but also a good amount of head-scratching. I guess Georgia didn’t want to show too much against Austin Peay two weeks ago, as they scored just 28 points and had zero explosive plays. Against Tennessee, they had six explosive plays and scored 44 points.

West Virginia lost on the road at Ohio and mustered just 10 points two weeks ago, but beat Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. Kent State, who lost to Buffalo 43-7 last year, nearly had their first FBS win since Nov. 26, 2022. Middle Tennessee, who lost to Austin Peay to open the season, went out to Reno and beat Nevada with two late TD drives. Stanford, who looked about as bad as humanly possible in their first two games, beat a Boston College team that scored 40 points on Michigan State a couple weeks ago.

So, it’s wild and wacky already and those are just some of the games that stood out. The transitive property of college football is always a fun exercise, especially as we get another week or two into the season, but it can create some headaches for those rating the teams and making their own numbers.

It isn’t all that surprising to see this level of volatility, given that so many of these teams have so many new players. The better programs and the better coaches should start reining everybody in sooner than the lesser programs and the lesser coaches, but you still never quite know what to expect as the season goes along.

I’ve made some big adjustments up and down, and I’ll get to that in one second, but first, my list of the 136 FBS teams.

Week 4 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	90	3.5
2	Penn State	90	3.5
3	Georgia	89	3
4	Oregon	89	3.5
5	Miami (Florida)	86.5	2
6	Alabama	85	3.5
7	LSU	84.5	3.5
8	Texas	84.5	3.5
9	Oklahoma	84	3
10	Texas A&M	84	2
11	Missouri	83	3.5
12	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
13	Notre Dame	82	3
14	Utah	82	3
15	USC	81	3
16	Michigan	80.5	3
17	Mississippi	80.5	3
18	Indiana	80	2.5
19	Arizona State	79.5	2
20	Auburn	79.5	2
21	Florida	79	2
22	Texas Tech	79	3
23	Illinois	78	2
24	Clemson	77.5	2.5
25	Florida State	77.5	2
26	Arkansas	77	2
27	TCU	77	3
28	Vanderbilt	76.5	1.5
29	Louisville	76	3.5
30	Georgia Tech	75.5	2
31	SMU	75.5	3.5
32	Baylor	75	2
33	Iowa	75	3
34	Nebraska	75	2
35	Washington	74.5	3.5
36	Iowa State	74	2
37	Kansas	74	2.5
38	South Carolina	74	2.5
39	Minnesota	73	2
40	BYU	72	2
41	Houston	70.5	2
42	Mississippi State	70.5	2
43	California	70	2
44	Rutgers	70	2
45	South Florida	70	1.5
46	Tulane	69.5	2.5
47	Cincinnati	69	1.5
48	Duke	69	3.5
49	Kentucky	69	2
50	Wisconsin	68.5	2
51	Michigan State	68	2
52	North Carolina State	68	2
53	Boise State	67.5	3.5
54	Navy	67	2
55	Pittsburgh	67	2
56	Virginia	67	2
57	Arizona	66.5	2
58	Colorado	66	2
59	Boston College	65	2
60	Kansas State	65	3.5
61	Memphis	64.5	2.5
62	Ohio	64.5	3.5
63	Texas State	64.5	2
64	James Madison	64	3
65	Maryland	64	2
66	UCF	64	2
67	Virginia Tech	64	2
68	West Virginia	63.5	2
69	East Carolina	63	2
70	Syracuse	63	2.5
71	Toledo	63	3
72	North Carolina	62.5	2
73	UTSA	62.5	3.5
74	Fresno State	62	2
75	Old Dominion	61.5	1.5
76	North Texas	61	2
77	Northwestern	61	1.5
78	UNLV	61	2.5
79	Oklahoma State	59.5	2
80	Air Force	58	2
81	Army	58	2.5
82	Appalachian State	57.5	2
83	Connecticut	57.5	2.5
84	Utah State	57.5	2
85	Western Kentucky	57.5	2.5
86	Oregon State	57	3.5
87	Purdue	57	1
88	Wake Forest	57	2
89	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
90	San Jose State	56.5	2.5
91	South Alabama	56.5	2
92	UCLA	56	2
93	Georgia Southern	55.5	3.5
94	Miami (Ohio)	55	2.5
95	Wyoming	55	2
96	Jacksonville State	54.5	3.5
97	Hawai’i	54	2
98	Louisiana-Lafayette	54	2
99	Southern Mississippi	54	2
100	Temple	54	2
101	Buffalo	53.5	2
102	Colorado State	53.5	2
103	Rice	53	3
104	Stanford	53	1
105	Liberty	52.5	3
106	Arkansas State	52	2
107	Bowling Green	52	2
108	Northern Illinois	52	1
109	Washington State	52	3
110	Central Michigan	51.5	2
111	New Mexico	51.5	2
112	Troy	51.5	3
113	Florida International	51	2
114	Louisiana-Monroe	51	2
115	San Diego State	50	2
116	Florida Atlantic	49	2
117	Tulsa	49	1
118	Western Michigan	49	2
119	Missouri State	48.5	2
120	Georgia State	48	1
121	Marshall	48	3
122	Charlotte	47.5	1
123	Coastal Carolina	47.5	2
124	UAB	47.5	2.5
125	UTEP	47.5	2
126	Delaware	47	3
127	Nevada	47	1
128	New Mexico State	45.5	2.5
129	Eastern Michigan	44.5	2
130	Kennesaw State	44	1.5
131	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
132	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
133	Akron	41	2
134	Massachusetts	39.5	1
135	Ball State	38	2.5
136	Kent State	37.5	1

Here are my Week 4 power ratings adjustments:

Up: New Mexico +2.5, Indiana +1, Temple +1.5, Georgia Tech +2, Alabama +1.5, Delaware +2, Georgia +1, North Texas +1.5, Texas Tech +1.5, Purdue +1.5, SMU +1, Missouri +4, UTEP +1.5, Miami +2.5, Southern Miss +3, Ohio +2.5, Old Dominion +2.5, Vanderbilt +2.5, East Carolina +3, Louisiana Tech +3, Tulsa +2.5, Utah +4, Utah State +2.5, Arizona State +3, Cal +3, Arkansas +2, Kent State +3, Kentucky +2 

Down: Kansas State -5, UCLA -3.5, Buffalo -3, Clemson -3.5, Wisconsin -3.5, Auburn -1, UConn -2, Tennessee -1, Washington State -1.5, Oregon State -1.5, Missouri State -1.5, Louisiana -5.5, Iowa State -3, Texas -4.5, Virginia Tech -4.5, South Carolina -4, LSU -3, Notre Dame -3.5, Coastal Carolina -5, Nevada -4, Boston College -3.5, Northwestern -2.5, Wyoming -3, Troy -4, Ball State -2.5, Pitt -2.5, Liberty -3

Injury: South Carolina -6 (Sellers)*, Mississippi -4 (Simmons)*

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Missouri +4: Beau Pribula might be a star in the making and the Tigers are a double-digit favorite in the Battle of Columbia this week.

Utah +4: I finally caved and really made a big upgrade to Utah after their dominating second half against Wyoming. I liked my +23.5 a lot when it was 3-0 at half. Silly me.

East Carolina +3: The Pirates pummeled a really bad Coastal Carolina team (more on them shortly). What impressed me the most was pitching a shutout. Blake Harrell is doing work in Greenville, NC.

Arizona State +3: It was a bit of a slow start for ASU, but they’re finding skill guys to replace the lost production and Sam Leavitt still looks sharp.

Cal +3: Another impressive performance for the Golden Bears.

Kent State +3: Dru DeShields appears to be giving Kent State the best QB play they’ve had in years. They’re still a doormat, but a more competitive doormat.

Kentucky +2: Not a huge adjustment, but Cutter Boley can actually throw a forward pass, which is an upgrade from Zach Calzada.

Louisiana -5.5: This one sort of snuck up on me. I assumed the loss to Rice was sort of a one-off against a team running a new offense, but it turns out that the Ragin’ Cajuns may just be terrible. That line against Eastern Michigan was an eye opener, given how bad the Eagles are themselves.

Kansas State -5: How ass is Kansas State? My goodness. They need to make a change at QB and try to salvage something out of this season. Jayce Brown had a 75-yard TD run. Kansas State had 193 total yards. I’ve dropped this team 13.5 points since Week 1.

Coastal Carolina -5: Tim Beck’s going to get fired. This team has no QB play and no defense. I was low on them to begin with, but I’ve already dropped them 9.5 points since Week 1. 

Texas -4.5: I cackled at this tweet.

Arch Manning is so bad he might legitimately set back nepotism

— Subscribe to the You Know Ball Patreon (@TrillBroDude) September 13, 2025

Virginia Tech -4.5: Yeesh. Brent Pry did not work out in Blacksburg. Turns out giving up a 40 burger to Old Dominion is bad for job security. OC Philip Montgomery (previously HC at Tulsa) takes over.

South Carolina -4: This is independent of LaNorris Sellers’ injury situation. This is a “hey, this team actually isn’t very good” adjustment.

Troy -4: The Trojans never had a Maverick and now don’t have a Goose, now that Goose Crowder is out indefinitely.

Nevada -4: Yeah, you can’t lose at home to MTSU. You simply can’t.

UCLA -3.5: Pry had some company this week, as Deshaun Foster was also pink slipped. What a disaster UCLA is right now. Good thing the basketball team is solid.

Boston College -3.5: Losing by double digits to Stanford is not a great look. Also, now that Tommy Castellanos is a star at Florida State, it makes you really wonder about Bill O’Brien.

Notre Dame -3.5: Miami is a wagon and Texas A&M is very good, but Notre Dame has some major issues.

Clemson -3.5: Speaking of major issues, Cade Klubnik is regressing in a big way. Can’t wait to see how quickly Dabo Swinney throws Garrett Riley under the bus and how many times he backs over him. Maybe he should’ve jumped on the transfer portal train sooner.

My Week 4 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/18	Rice	Charlotte	+4.5
9/19	Tulsa	Oklahoma State	-12.5
	Iowa	Rutgers	+3
9/20	North Texas	Army	+0.5
	SMU	TCU	-4.5
	Louisiana	Eastern Michigan	+7.5
	Temple	Georgia Tech	-23.5
	North Carolina	UCF	-3.5
	UNLV	Miami (OH)	+3.5
	BYU	East Carolina	+7
	Florida	Miami (FL)	-9.5
	Bowling Green	Louisville	-27.5
	Syracuse	Clemson	-17
	Illinois	Indiana	-4.5
	NC State	Duke	-4.5
	Kent State	Florida State	-42
	Toledo	Western Michigan	+12
	Troy	Buffalo	-4
	Maryland	Wisconsin	-6.5
	Coastal Carolina	South Alabama	-11
	UAB	Tennessee	-38.5
	UTSA	Colorado State	+7
	Wyoming	Colorado	-13
	Texas Tech	Utah	-6
	Oregon State	Oregon	-35.5
	Auburn	Oklahoma	-7.5
	Tulane	Mississippi	-14
	West Virginia	Kansas	-13
	Arizona State	Baylor	+2.5
	Michigan State	USC	-16
	Ball State	UConn	-22
	Arkansas	Memphis	+10
	Michigan	Nebraska	+3.5
	Purdue	Notre Dame	-28
	Stanford	Virginia	-16
	South Carolina	Missouri	-12.5
	Northern Illinois	Mississippi State	-20.5
	Fresno State	Hawaii	+6
	James Madison	Liberty	+8.5
	Arkansas State	Kennesaw State	+6.5
	Delaware	FIU	-6
	Nevada	Western Kentucky	-13
	Boise State	Air Force	+7.5
	Marshall	Middle Tennessee	+4.5
	Southern Miss	Louisiana Tech	-4.5
	Washington	Washington State	+19.5
	Georgia State	Vanderbilt	-30
	Sam Houston	Texas	-46
	UL Monroe	UTEP	+1.5
	Cal	San Diego State	+18

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

North Texas +1.5 (-0.5) at Army: Not a tremendous overlay by any means, but the Mean Green offense is efficient enough to fare well here and Skyler Cassity is an excellent DC.

SMU +7 (+4) at TCU: The rivalry game. I’m still not entirely sure what SMU or TCU are, if I’m being completely honest, but I’ll find out this week. Curious to see if we get a 7.5 here. I’ll probably be a player at 7, but would definitely take a shot at 7.5.

North Carolina +6.5 (+3.5) at UCF: I have to think Bill Belichick’s starting to make some adjustments to the college game. I really don’t know how good UCF is, since their first data point was a dud against Jacksonville State and they played NC A&T before the bye.

UTSA -4 (-7) at Colorado State: I’m still holding out hope that my feelings on UTSA will be validated. To this point, they haven’t looked the part, but Jeff Traylor is an excellent in-season coach.

Arizona State +2.5 (-2.5) at Baylor: Guess we’ll see if I was right to upgrade ASU. I’d have made them a slight underdog prior to my three-point upgrade.

UL Monroe +4.5 (-1.5) at UTEP: Another wrong team favored spot based on my numbers. I do like the idea of Bryant Vincent off a bye. And UTEP’s pretty offensively challenged going up against a brilliant play caller.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.