Each college football season presents unique challenges. As bettors, we are left trying to answer several different questions week in and week out. As we head into Week 4, one of the biggest questions centers around how much we want to continue to trust our preseason work. Another question is how we want to evaluate team performances to date.
Take Marshall as one obvious example. The Thundering Herd went on the road and beat Notre Dame in Week 2. They followed that up by losing to Bowling Green in Week 3. Those are two very opposite ends of the spectrum and the Herd are not the only team with results like this.
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South Florida lost 50-21 to BYU in Week 1, but has since beaten Howard and taken Florida to the wire. Rutgers is 3-0 with a win by one over Boston College, two over a terrible Temple team and a blowout of Wagner, one of the worst teams in college football. Kansas State rolled over Missouri, but then lost at home to Tulane. Do we give the Wildcats a pass because Oklahoma was on deck or do we punish them for losing to the Green Wave?
These are all weekly questions that have to be answered, but as the inconsistencies become more and more noticeable, we’re left to figure out what’s real, what’s not, what could be and what should be.
Every data point gives us more information, but we eventually run out of data points and may never have a great handle on a team. Other times, a team is precisely what we thought it was. These are meant to be a guide, not serve as gospel. Trying to get ahead of line moves to grab good numbers is the goal. Good numbers won’t always win. Bad numbers won’t always lose. But, we do the best we can to process information and place wagers that we can stand behind.
Here are my power ratings for Week 4:
