Week 4 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 4 College Football Power Ratings:

It feels like the college football season just started, but most teams have already played 25% of their regular season schedules. This is the time of the year when I transition from my priors and all of my summer research to what’s happening this season. Teams will obviously improve or get worse as they figure things out and work through injuries, but I need to start looking at it as “what we see is what we’ll get”.

That being said, college football is inherently high variance for so many different reasons. Georgia State barely beat Chattanooga two weeks ago and then beat Vanderbilt this past weekend. While the Commodores aren’t very good, they are still a SEC team that beat a Virginia Tech team that a lot of people liked coming into the season. 

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Kentucky looked beyond awful against South Carolina and then lost by a point to Georgia. 

Oregon woke up and dominated by 35 in the rivalry game against Oregon State.

Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois at home and then beat Purdue by 59 points.

You can never handicap all of the randomness out of any sport, but college football definitely has more of it than others. So, you do the best you can, adjust teams accordingly, and think about how the game could play out. There are also a lot of situational angles to consider, which aren’t always going to be justifications for making a bet, but we have teams starting conference play, finishing non-conference action, traveling for the first time, and things like that.

Remember, the function of power ratings, at least as I interpret them, is to try and get some line value. There are a lot of qualitative factors that come into play, especially as the week goes along and the market matures. For example, there are 29 teams that have not played a true road game yet. Eleven of those teams play a roadie this week (NC State, Stanford, Illinois, Rutgers, USC, Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, Tennessee, Florida, UL Monroe).

Here are my Week 4 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	95.5	3
2	Ohio State	93	3.5
3	Texas	92	3.5
4	Alabama	89	3.5
5	Mississippi	87.5	3.5
6	Oregon	87.5	3.5
7	Tennessee	86	3.5
8	Penn State	84	3.5
9	USC	84	2
10	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
11	Miami (Florida)	83	2
12	LSU	82.5	3.5
13	Texas A&M	81.5	3
14	Clemson	81	3
15	Missouri	81	2
16	Kansas State	80	3.5
17	Utah	79.5	3.5
18	Oklahoma	78.5	3.5
19	Iowa State	78	2
20	Louisville	78	3.5
21	Oklahoma State	77	3.5
22	UCF	76	3
23	Iowa	75.5	2.5
24	Michigan	74.5	3.5
25	Auburn	74.5	2
26	Nebraska	74.5	2
27	Virginia Tech	74.5	2
28	Arizona	74	2
29	Memphis	74	2
30	TCU	74	2.5
31	Boise State	73.5	2.5
32	Indiana	73.5	1.5
33	Georgia Tech	73	1
34	Pittsburgh	72.5	2
35	South Carolina	72.5	2.5
36	Kentucky	72	2.5
37	Arkansas	72	2
38	Tulane	72	2
39	Kansas	71.5	2
40	Minnesota	71.5	2
41	West Virginia	71.5	3
42	Florida	71	2
43	Florida State	71	2
44	Washington	71	2
45	Baylor	70.5	2
46	California	70.5	2
47	Rutgers	70	2
48	Wisconsin	70	2
49	Boston College	70	1.5
50	SMU	69.5	3.5
51	BYU	69	2
52	Maryland	69	2
53	Syracuse	68.5	2.5
54	UNLV	68.5	2
55	Texas Tech	68	2.5
56	Washington State	68	2.5
57	Arizona State	67.5	2
58	North Carolina	67.5	2.5
59	Cincinnati	67	2
60	Illinois	67	2
61	Oregon State	66	3.5
62	South Florida	66	2
63	UCLA	66	2
64	Michigan State	65.5	2.5
65	Virginia	65.5	2
66	Colorado	65	2
67	Fresno State	65	2.5
68	Purdue	65	2
69	Appalachian State	63.5	2.5
70	Houston	63.5	2
71	Liberty	63.5	3
72	Duke	63	3
73	Mississippi State	63	2
74	Texas State	63	2
75	Wake Forest	63	2.5
76	Miami (Ohio)	62	3
77	Northwestern	62	1.5
78	Bowling Green	61.5	2
79	Stanford	61.5	1
80	Louisiana-Lafayette	61	3
81	North Carolina State	61	3.5
82	Northern Illinois	61	1.5
83	Toledo	61	2.5
84	Coastal Carolina	60	2.5
85	Western Kentucky	60	2.5
86	East Carolina	59.5	2
87	James Madison	59.5	3.5
88	South Alabama	59	2.5
89	UTSA	59	3.5
90	Vanderbilt	59	1
91	UAB	58	2.5
92	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
93	San Jose State	57.5	2
94	Marshall	57	2
95	North Texas	57	2
96	Nevada	56.5	1.5
97	Rice	56.5	2
98	Arkansas State	56	2
99	Army	56	2
100	Old Dominion	56	2
101	Sam Houston State	56	2
102	Navy	55	2
103	Tulsa	55	1
104	Western Michigan	55	2
105	Georgia State	54	2
106	Utah State	54	2
107	Air Force	53	2.5
108	Colorado State	53	1
109	Jacksonville State	53	2.5
110	Ohio	53	2
111	San Diego State	53	2
112	Wyoming	52.5	2.5
113	Hawai’i	52	2
114	Troy	51	2.5
115	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
116	Southern Mississippi	50.5	2
117	Florida Atlantic	50	2
118	Buffalo	49.5	1
119	Connecticut	49	2
120	Louisiana-Monroe	49	2
121	New Mexico	49	1
122	Ball State	48.5	2
123	Louisiana Tech	48	2
124	New Mexico State	47	2.5
125	Central Michigan	46.5	2
126	Akron	46	1
127	Florida International	46	1
128	Middle Tennessee	46	2
129	Massachusetts	45.5	1
130	Charlotte	45	1
131	UTEP	43.5	2
132	Kennesaw State	43	2
133	Temple	43	2
134	Kent State	39	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: UNLV +1.5, Kansas State +2, Tulsa +2, Texas Tech +2, Memphis +1.5, Cincinnati +2, South Carolina +2.5, Boston College +5, Washington State +2, Pitt +3, Miami (FL) +2.5, Minnesota +3, Virginia Tech +1.5, Ole Miss +1.5, Sam Houston State +5, Toledo +2, Baylor +2, UCF +3, Indiana +3.5, Tennessee +3, BYU +2, Fresno State +2, Cal +2, South Alabama +2, Oregon +1, Louisiana Tech +2, Temple +1, UAB +2, Georgia State +2.5

Down: Arizona State -2, Kansas -2, Arizona -3, Wisconsin -3 (Van Dyke inj.), Central Michigan -4, Florida State -3, NC State -9, LSU -2.5, Michigan -4, Missouri -1, Washington -4, West Virginia -1.5, Ball State -2, App State -2, Old Dominion -1.5, Liberty -3, Duke -1, Wake Forest -1, Hawaii -3, Southern Miss -2, Mississippi State -2, Air Force -4, TCU -3, Georgia -1.5, Colorado -2, Colorado State -3, UCLA -3, Kent State -3, Wyoming -3, New Mexico State -1, San Diego State -3, Charlotte -2, Ohio -1, UTSA -2, Oklahoma -3, Coastal Carolina -2, Troy -2, Kentucky -2, Florida -3

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Sam Houston State +5: A market-based correction here, but it also seems like the Bearkats are a good bit better this season. A nice road win over Rice and a comfortable win over Hawaii at home with a nothing-to-be-ashamed of loss to UCF. I had Hawaii a road favorite, so I needed to adjust both teams, with SHSU getting a big bump.

Boston College +5: Another market-based correction here. Honestly, the box score doesn’t make the game look as close against Missouri as the final score, but BC is definitely rated better than I think they are in the markets, so I have to respect that.

Indiana +3.5: I had Indiana +1 at UCLA. They might as well have been -20. Great win for Curt Cignetti’s crew and yet another upgrade of the Hoosiers.

Tennessee +3: Maybe the Volunteers are really that good. They haven’t exactly been tested yet and NC State was a team I dropped nearly 10 points this week after letting me down against LA Tech. I don’t want to be against Tennessee, but Oklahoma will be a very trendy underdog pick this week. I moved them up as a sign of respect. We’ll see if they earn it this week.

Minnesota +3: My line was a little cheap here against Nevada and I think they’ve got some market respect.

Pitt +3: Now that Pat Narduzzi has decided scoring points is cool again with OC Kade Bell, the Panthers are in pretty good shape. The defense is still a little leaky, but I think they’re a pretty decent team.

NC State -9: I finally gave up on this team. Grayson McCall also got hurt on Saturday, but they just stink. I had the line about six points high last week, so this is a market correction and also a performanced-based one.

Michigan -4: The Wolverines don’t have a QB. Beating Arkansas State by 10 at home is pretty pathetic. The defense is probably going to wear down with the poor offensive play as the season rolls along as well.

Washington -4: It wasn’t a good week for me and this was a big one. Washington lost outright when I had them much higher than the market. They did take money early in the week, so the line was definitely cheap, but the Huskies don’t seem to be as buttoned up as I had hoped.

Air Force -4: I don’t know what has happened in Colorado Springs, but the Falcons look terrible. They’ve scored 31 points in three games and have 3.2 yards per carry thus far.

Liberty -3: Not the biggest mover, but one worth mentioning because the Flames haven’t really looked the part yet. They could very well have lost to New Mexico State and took it pretty easy on UTEP.

Here are my Week 4 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/19	South Alabama	App State	-7
9/20	Stanford	Syracuse	-9.5
	Illinois	Nebraska	-9.5
	San Jose State	Washington State	-13
9/21	Houston	Cincinnati	-5.5
	Virginia	Coastal Carolina	+3
	Kent State	Penn State	-48.5
	Marshall	Ohio State	-39.5
	Michigan State	Boston College	-6
	Buffalo	Northern Illinois	-13
	Akron	South Carolina	-29
	Charlotte	Indiana	-30
	Kansas	West Virginia	-3
	James Madison	North Carolina	-10.5
	Georgia Tech	Louisville	-8.5
	NC State	Clemson	-16.5
	Miami (FL)	South Florida	+15
	Iowa	Minnesota	+2
	Cal	Florida State	-2.5
	Ball State	Central Michigan	PK
	Ohio	Kentucky	-21.5
	Utah State	Temple	+9
	Rice	Army	-1.5
	Rutgers	Virginia Tech	-6.5
	Fresno State	New Mexico	+15
	Kansas State	BYU	+9
	UTEP	Colorado State	-10.5
	Baylor	Colorado	+3.5
	Arkansas State	Iowa State	-24
	Southern Miss	Jacksonville State	-5
	Purdue	Oregon State	-4.5
	Arkansas	Auburn	-4.5
	Georgia Southern	Mississippi	-33.5
	TCU	SMU	+1
	Tennessee	Oklahoma	+4
	Louisiana Monroe	Texas	-46.5
	Northwestern	Washington	-11
	Tulane	Louisiana	+8
	Utah	Oklahoma State	-1
	Wyoming	North Texas	-6.5
	Arizona State	Texas Tech	-3
	Vanderbilt	Missouri	-24
	USC	Michigan	+6
	UCLA	LSU	-20
	Florida	Mississippi State	+6
	Miami (OH)	Notre Dame	-25
	Bowling Green	Texas A&M	-23
	Memphis	Navy	+17
	East Carolina	Liberty	-7
	Florida Atlantic	UConn	-1
	Tulsa	Louisiana Tech	+5
	Duke	Middle Tennessee	+15
	New Mexico State	Sam Houston State	-11
	Toledo	Western Kentucky	-1.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Ball State +6.5 (PK) at Central Michigan: CMU was a big dropper for me this week after another ugly passing performance. Ball State has played Missouri State and Miami, so I don’t really know what we’re gonna get, but I don’t think the Chips are any good.

Utah State -6.5 (-9) at Temple: Utah State has played USC and Utah among FBS opponents so far. I still find Temple to be one of the worst teams in the nation. Weird game, weird travel spot, but still interesting.

Baylor +1 (-3.5) at Colorado: I still don’t know what Colorado is, but I know I’ve downgraded Colorado State a lot. I’m not exactly impressed with that win last week. Baylor’s a tough team to gauge since their one data point was a dud against Utah.

Oklahoma +7.5 (+4) vs. Tennessee: This is what I was talking about. As hard as I tried, I couldn’t get Tennessee to be over a TD favorite. It’ll be a big test for the Vols, who have embarrassed Chattanooga, NC State, and Kent State so far. Oklahoma’s a little better than that.

Tulane -3.5 (-8) at Louisiana: Big step down in class here for the Green Wave. Louisiana has played Grambling and Kennesaw State. This line is way too cheap in my opinion. My favorite play of the week.

Memphis -11.5 (-17) at Navy: Definite letdown spot for Memphis. You have to tighten up the spread because of the nature of Navy’s offense and how it limits possessions. My power ratings are just a raw number, so I make those distinctions after the fact. Still, line looks a tad cheap.
Tulsa +1 (-5) at Louisiana Tech: This tells me that my line was wrong both ways on LA Tech and NC State. I obviously adjusted NC State in a big way, but not LA Tech. This won’t be a game that I bet, but a game that I’ll watch closely for adjustments.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.