Week 4 College Football Power Ratings:
It feels like the college football season just started, but most teams have already played 25% of their regular season schedules. This is the time of the year when I transition from my priors and all of my summer research to what’s happening this season. Teams will obviously improve or get worse as they figure things out and work through injuries, but I need to start looking at it as “what we see is what we’ll get”.
That being said, college football is inherently high variance for so many different reasons. Georgia State barely beat Chattanooga two weeks ago and then beat Vanderbilt this past weekend. While the Commodores aren’t very good, they are still a SEC team that beat a Virginia Tech team that a lot of people liked coming into the season.
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Kentucky looked beyond awful against South Carolina and then lost by a point to Georgia.
Oregon woke up and dominated by 35 in the rivalry game against Oregon State.
Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois at home and then beat Purdue by 59 points.
You can never handicap all of the randomness out of any sport, but college football definitely has more of it than others. So, you do the best you can, adjust teams accordingly, and think about how the game could play out. There are also a lot of situational angles to consider, which aren’t always going to be justifications for making a bet, but we have teams starting conference play, finishing non-conference action, traveling for the first time, and things like that.
Remember, the function of power ratings, at least as I interpret them, is to try and get some line value. There are a lot of qualitative factors that come into play, especially as the week goes along and the market matures. For example, there are 29 teams that have not played a true road game yet. Eleven of those teams play a roadie this week (NC State, Stanford, Illinois, Rutgers, USC, Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, Tennessee, Florida, UL Monroe).
Here are my Week 4 College Football Power Ratings
Rank | Team | PR | HFA |
1 | Georgia | 95.5 | 3 |
2 | Ohio State | 93 | 3.5 |
3 | Texas | 92 | 3.5 |
4 | Alabama | 89 | 3.5 |
5 | Mississippi | 87.5 | 3.5 |
6 | Oregon | 87.5 | 3.5 |
7 | Tennessee | 86 | 3.5 |
8 | Penn State | 84 | 3.5 |
9 | USC | 84 | 2 |
10 | Notre Dame | 83.5 | 3.5 |
11 | Miami (Florida) | 83 | 2 |
12 | LSU | 82.5 | 3.5 |
13 | Texas A&M | 81.5 | 3 |
14 | Clemson | 81 | 3 |
15 | Missouri | 81 | 2 |
16 | Kansas State | 80 | 3.5 |
17 | Utah | 79.5 | 3.5 |
18 | Oklahoma | 78.5 | 3.5 |
19 | Iowa State | 78 | 2 |
20 | Louisville | 78 | 3.5 |
21 | Oklahoma State | 77 | 3.5 |
22 | UCF | 76 | 3 |
23 | Iowa | 75.5 | 2.5 |
24 | Michigan | 74.5 | 3.5 |
25 | Auburn | 74.5 | 2 |
26 | Nebraska | 74.5 | 2 |
27 | Virginia Tech | 74.5 | 2 |
28 | Arizona | 74 | 2 |
29 | Memphis | 74 | 2 |
30 | TCU | 74 | 2.5 |
31 | Boise State | 73.5 | 2.5 |
32 | Indiana | 73.5 | 1.5 |
33 | Georgia Tech | 73 | 1 |
34 | Pittsburgh | 72.5 | 2 |
35 | South Carolina | 72.5 | 2.5 |
36 | Kentucky | 72 | 2.5 |
37 | Arkansas | 72 | 2 |
38 | Tulane | 72 | 2 |
39 | Kansas | 71.5 | 2 |
40 | Minnesota | 71.5 | 2 |
41 | West Virginia | 71.5 | 3 |
42 | Florida | 71 | 2 |
43 | Florida State | 71 | 2 |
44 | Washington | 71 | 2 |
45 | Baylor | 70.5 | 2 |
46 | California | 70.5 | 2 |
47 | Rutgers | 70 | 2 |
48 | Wisconsin | 70 | 2 |
49 | Boston College | 70 | 1.5 |
50 | SMU | 69.5 | 3.5 |
51 | BYU | 69 | 2 |
52 | Maryland | 69 | 2 |
53 | Syracuse | 68.5 | 2.5 |
54 | UNLV | 68.5 | 2 |
55 | Texas Tech | 68 | 2.5 |
56 | Washington State | 68 | 2.5 |
57 | Arizona State | 67.5 | 2 |
58 | North Carolina | 67.5 | 2.5 |
59 | Cincinnati | 67 | 2 |
60 | Illinois | 67 | 2 |
61 | Oregon State | 66 | 3.5 |
62 | South Florida | 66 | 2 |
63 | UCLA | 66 | 2 |
64 | Michigan State | 65.5 | 2.5 |
65 | Virginia | 65.5 | 2 |
66 | Colorado | 65 | 2 |
67 | Fresno State | 65 | 2.5 |
68 | Purdue | 65 | 2 |
69 | Appalachian State | 63.5 | 2.5 |
70 | Houston | 63.5 | 2 |
71 | Liberty | 63.5 | 3 |
72 | Duke | 63 | 3 |
73 | Mississippi State | 63 | 2 |
74 | Texas State | 63 | 2 |
75 | Wake Forest | 63 | 2.5 |
76 | Miami (Ohio) | 62 | 3 |
77 | Northwestern | 62 | 1.5 |
78 | Bowling Green | 61.5 | 2 |
79 | Stanford | 61.5 | 1 |
80 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 61 | 3 |
81 | North Carolina State | 61 | 3.5 |
82 | Northern Illinois | 61 | 1.5 |
83 | Toledo | 61 | 2.5 |
84 | Coastal Carolina | 60 | 2.5 |
85 | Western Kentucky | 60 | 2.5 |
86 | East Carolina | 59.5 | 2 |
87 | James Madison | 59.5 | 3.5 |
88 | South Alabama | 59 | 2.5 |
89 | UTSA | 59 | 3.5 |
90 | Vanderbilt | 59 | 1 |
91 | UAB | 58 | 2.5 |
92 | Georgia Southern | 57.5 | 2 |
93 | San Jose State | 57.5 | 2 |
94 | Marshall | 57 | 2 |
95 | North Texas | 57 | 2 |
96 | Nevada | 56.5 | 1.5 |
97 | Rice | 56.5 | 2 |
98 | Arkansas State | 56 | 2 |
99 | Army | 56 | 2 |
100 | Old Dominion | 56 | 2 |
101 | Sam Houston State | 56 | 2 |
102 | Navy | 55 | 2 |
103 | Tulsa | 55 | 1 |
104 | Western Michigan | 55 | 2 |
105 | Georgia State | 54 | 2 |
106 | Utah State | 54 | 2 |
107 | Air Force | 53 | 2.5 |
108 | Colorado State | 53 | 1 |
109 | Jacksonville State | 53 | 2.5 |
110 | Ohio | 53 | 2 |
111 | San Diego State | 53 | 2 |
112 | Wyoming | 52.5 | 2.5 |
113 | Hawai’i | 52 | 2 |
114 | Troy | 51 | 2.5 |
115 | Eastern Michigan | 50.5 | 2 |
116 | Southern Mississippi | 50.5 | 2 |
117 | Florida Atlantic | 50 | 2 |
118 | Buffalo | 49.5 | 1 |
119 | Connecticut | 49 | 2 |
120 | Louisiana-Monroe | 49 | 2 |
121 | New Mexico | 49 | 1 |
122 | Ball State | 48.5 | 2 |
123 | Louisiana Tech | 48 | 2 |
124 | New Mexico State | 47 | 2.5 |
125 | Central Michigan | 46.5 | 2 |
126 | Akron | 46 | 1 |
127 | Florida International | 46 | 1 |
128 | Middle Tennessee | 46 | 2 |
129 | Massachusetts | 45.5 | 1 |
130 | Charlotte | 45 | 1 |
131 | UTEP | 43.5 | 2 |
132 | Kennesaw State | 43 | 2 |
133 | Temple | 43 | 2 |
134 | Kent State | 39 | 2 |
Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:
Up: UNLV +1.5, Kansas State +2, Tulsa +2, Texas Tech +2, Memphis +1.5, Cincinnati +2, South Carolina +2.5, Boston College +5, Washington State +2, Pitt +3, Miami (FL) +2.5, Minnesota +3, Virginia Tech +1.5, Ole Miss +1.5, Sam Houston State +5, Toledo +2, Baylor +2, UCF +3, Indiana +3.5, Tennessee +3, BYU +2, Fresno State +2, Cal +2, South Alabama +2, Oregon +1, Louisiana Tech +2, Temple +1, UAB +2, Georgia State +2.5
Down: Arizona State -2, Kansas -2, Arizona -3, Wisconsin -3 (Van Dyke inj.), Central Michigan -4, Florida State -3, NC State -9, LSU -2.5, Michigan -4, Missouri -1, Washington -4, West Virginia -1.5, Ball State -2, App State -2, Old Dominion -1.5, Liberty -3, Duke -1, Wake Forest -1, Hawaii -3, Southern Miss -2, Mississippi State -2, Air Force -4, TCU -3, Georgia -1.5, Colorado -2, Colorado State -3, UCLA -3, Kent State -3, Wyoming -3, New Mexico State -1, San Diego State -3, Charlotte -2, Ohio -1, UTSA -2, Oklahoma -3, Coastal Carolina -2, Troy -2, Kentucky -2, Florida -3
Some notes on the biggest movers:
Sam Houston State +5: A market-based correction here, but it also seems like the Bearkats are a good bit better this season. A nice road win over Rice and a comfortable win over Hawaii at home with a nothing-to-be-ashamed of loss to UCF. I had Hawaii a road favorite, so I needed to adjust both teams, with SHSU getting a big bump.
Boston College +5: Another market-based correction here. Honestly, the box score doesn’t make the game look as close against Missouri as the final score, but BC is definitely rated better than I think they are in the markets, so I have to respect that.
Indiana +3.5: I had Indiana +1 at UCLA. They might as well have been -20. Great win for Curt Cignetti’s crew and yet another upgrade of the Hoosiers.
Tennessee +3: Maybe the Volunteers are really that good. They haven’t exactly been tested yet and NC State was a team I dropped nearly 10 points this week after letting me down against LA Tech. I don’t want to be against Tennessee, but Oklahoma will be a very trendy underdog pick this week. I moved them up as a sign of respect. We’ll see if they earn it this week.
Minnesota +3: My line was a little cheap here against Nevada and I think they’ve got some market respect.
Pitt +3: Now that Pat Narduzzi has decided scoring points is cool again with OC Kade Bell, the Panthers are in pretty good shape. The defense is still a little leaky, but I think they’re a pretty decent team.
NC State -9: I finally gave up on this team. Grayson McCall also got hurt on Saturday, but they just stink. I had the line about six points high last week, so this is a market correction and also a performanced-based one.
Michigan -4: The Wolverines don’t have a QB. Beating Arkansas State by 10 at home is pretty pathetic. The defense is probably going to wear down with the poor offensive play as the season rolls along as well.
Washington -4: It wasn’t a good week for me and this was a big one. Washington lost outright when I had them much higher than the market. They did take money early in the week, so the line was definitely cheap, but the Huskies don’t seem to be as buttoned up as I had hoped.
Air Force -4: I don’t know what has happened in Colorado Springs, but the Falcons look terrible. They’ve scored 31 points in three games and have 3.2 yards per carry thus far.
Liberty -3: Not the biggest mover, but one worth mentioning because the Flames haven’t really looked the part yet. They could very well have lost to New Mexico State and took it pretty easy on UTEP.
Here are my Week 4 College Football Lines
Date | Away Team | Home Team | Line |
9/19 | South Alabama | App State | -7 |
9/20 | Stanford | Syracuse | -9.5 |
Illinois | Nebraska | -9.5 | |
San Jose State | Washington State | -13 | |
9/21 | Houston | Cincinnati | -5.5 |
Virginia | Coastal Carolina | +3 | |
Kent State | Penn State | -48.5 | |
Marshall | Ohio State | -39.5 | |
Michigan State | Boston College | -6 | |
Buffalo | Northern Illinois | -13 | |
Akron | South Carolina | -29 | |
Charlotte | Indiana | -30 | |
Kansas | West Virginia | -3 | |
James Madison | North Carolina | -10.5 | |
Georgia Tech | Louisville | -8.5 | |
NC State | Clemson | -16.5 | |
Miami (FL) | South Florida | +15 | |
Iowa | Minnesota | +2 | |
Cal | Florida State | -2.5 | |
Ball State | Central Michigan | PK | |
Ohio | Kentucky | -21.5 | |
Utah State | Temple | +9 | |
Rice | Army | -1.5 | |
Rutgers | Virginia Tech | -6.5 | |
Fresno State | New Mexico | +15 | |
Kansas State | BYU | +9 | |
UTEP | Colorado State | -10.5 | |
Baylor | Colorado | +3.5 | |
Arkansas State | Iowa State | -24 | |
Southern Miss | Jacksonville State | -5 | |
Purdue | Oregon State | -4.5 | |
Arkansas | Auburn | -4.5 | |
Georgia Southern | Mississippi | -33.5 | |
TCU | SMU | +1 | |
Tennessee | Oklahoma | +4 | |
Louisiana Monroe | Texas | -46.5 | |
Northwestern | Washington | -11 | |
Tulane | Louisiana | +8 | |
Utah | Oklahoma State | -1 | |
Wyoming | North Texas | -6.5 | |
Arizona State | Texas Tech | -3 | |
Vanderbilt | Missouri | -24 | |
USC | Michigan | +6 | |
UCLA | LSU | -20 | |
Florida | Mississippi State | +6 | |
Miami (OH) | Notre Dame | -25 | |
Bowling Green | Texas A&M | -23 | |
Memphis | Navy | +17 | |
East Carolina | Liberty | -7 | |
Florida Atlantic | UConn | -1 | |
Tulsa | Louisiana Tech | +5 | |
Duke | Middle Tennessee | +15 | |
New Mexico State | Sam Houston State | -11 | |
Toledo | Western Kentucky | -1.5 |
Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines
Ball State +6.5 (PK) at Central Michigan: CMU was a big dropper for me this week after another ugly passing performance. Ball State has played Missouri State and Miami, so I don’t really know what we’re gonna get, but I don’t think the Chips are any good.
Utah State -6.5 (-9) at Temple: Utah State has played USC and Utah among FBS opponents so far. I still find Temple to be one of the worst teams in the nation. Weird game, weird travel spot, but still interesting.
Baylor +1 (-3.5) at Colorado: I still don’t know what Colorado is, but I know I’ve downgraded Colorado State a lot. I’m not exactly impressed with that win last week. Baylor’s a tough team to gauge since their one data point was a dud against Utah.
Oklahoma +7.5 (+4) vs. Tennessee: This is what I was talking about. As hard as I tried, I couldn’t get Tennessee to be over a TD favorite. It’ll be a big test for the Vols, who have embarrassed Chattanooga, NC State, and Kent State so far. Oklahoma’s a little better than that.
Tulane -3.5 (-8) at Louisiana: Big step down in class here for the Green Wave. Louisiana has played Grambling and Kennesaw State. This line is way too cheap in my opinion. My favorite play of the week.
Memphis -11.5 (-17) at Navy: Definite letdown spot for Memphis. You have to tighten up the spread because of the nature of Navy’s offense and how it limits possessions. My power ratings are just a raw number, so I make those distinctions after the fact. Still, line looks a tad cheap.
Tulsa +1 (-5) at Louisiana Tech: This tells me that my line was wrong both ways on LA Tech and NC State. I obviously adjusted NC State in a big way, but not LA Tech. This won’t be a game that I bet, but a game that I’ll watch closely for adjustments.
I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.