Week 4 College Football Predictions:

It is crazy to think that we’ve blown past the quarter pole of the college football season already. After this week’s games are completed, most of the nation will have played over a third of the games scheduled for the regular season. Of course, we’re about three months away from the start of the expanded College Football Playoff, so there is a lot of football left to be played, but it is moving quickly.

As I mentioned in my College Football Power Ratings update for this week, this is the time of year when I start to transition away from my priors and summer work and focus more on what we’re actually seeing from these teams. The inherent variance of college football is always possible and we may get some truly shocking performances, both good and bad, this week and beyond, but the goal is to start rating teams for what they are, not what they might be.

 

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Here are my Week 4 College Football Predictions:

Tulane Green Wave (-3, 54.5) at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Saturday, Noon ET (ESPNU)

The betting markets may be a little low on Tulane after losing to Kansas State and Oklahoma, but I’m not. In those two Power Four contests, Tulane played well enough. They had 5.79 yards per play and gave up 5.69. To be on the plus side in yards per play differential against a Big 12 and a SEC team is a rather impressive feat that will go unnoticed because they lost both games.

Louisiana is coming off of a bye, and I guess that’s a positive, but it is still early in the season and the Green Wave players shouldn’t be that fatigued or beaten up. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played Grambling and Kennesaw State, so a mediocre FCS team and one of the lowest-rated teams in FBS. They did what they were supposed to do and that’s all well and good, but this is a huge step up in class.

I’ve been very impressed with QB Darian Mensah and that position was the main question for Tulane coming into the season. Continuity wasn’t that big of a problem with a new coaching staff because a lot of holes on the roster were plugged by Troy players recruited by Jon Sumrall and his coordinators. The QB position was just the main question and Mensah has shown great leadership and played well. Furthermore, Tulane has a great running back in Makhi Hughes, who had 21 carries for 128 yards against K-State and should find more running room here.

This line is just too cheap to me. I have a good idea of what Tulane is and I’m still high on their AAC chances. We don’t really know what Louisiana is, but they were 5-7 against FBS foes last season and I didn’t find them to be much better when researching over the summer.

Pick: Tulane -3

Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5, 56)

Saturday, Noon ET (ESPN2)

The Men of Morgantown are in search of their first FBS win of the season with Kansas in town. The Jayhawks are doing the same, as they beat Lindenwood to open the year and then lost to Illinois and UNLV. I’m looking to fade Kansas right now and I think this is another good opportunity.

It’s an early kick with some obnoxious travel for the Jayhawks, so there’s that, but also, this offense just looks all out of sorts without Andy Kotelnicki. Don’t let the 50th rank in yards per play fool you because they only have 5.4 YPP in games against FBS opponents. Jalon Daniels has a 3/6 TD/INT ratio and has been sacked three times. KU only allowed 16 sacks all of last season.

It has been a tough start to the season for WVU. They lost in uncompetitive fashion to Penn State, beat Albany, and then blew a 10-point lead in the final five minutes to Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. The seat of head coach Neal Brown was quite hot last season and his backside may be warming up once again.

So, I think this is a pretty desperate WVU team this week. Garrett Greene is still a good QB and the Mountaineers still have a physical running game capable of taking up valuable time of possession.

Under a field goal, with a scuffling Kansas offense, I’ll hope country roads can take me home in this one.

Pick: West Virginia -2.5

Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas (-6.5, 53.5)

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

The MAC opener for Ball State and Central Michigan is Saturday in Mount Pleasant, as the Chips lay nearly a touchdown at home. The Cardinals started a week later than everybody else, as the schedule makers did them dirty and gave them a Week 1 bye. They beat Missouri State 42-34, a data point that doesn’t look super impressive, but Missouri State ranks higher than eight FBS teams in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings.

The 61-0 loss to Miami is what it is, as the Cardinals were just outclassed and overmatched. Of course, it’s still better than a 52-16 loss in Miami to FIU, which is precisely what Central Michigan did two weeks ago. CMU has gotten some bad QB play from Joe Labas, who already has six interceptions in three games this season. Myles Bailey has run the ball well, but I still don’t see the Chippewas as a team buttoned up enough to go out there and win comfortably.

Admittedly, Ball State is a bit of an unknown themselves with two wildly different data points to open the season, but my line on the game gives Ball State a much better chance than the market line indicates. This is more of a CMU fade than anything.

Pick: Ball State +6.5

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