Week 4 College Football Predictions
Week 3 has come and gone, as college football season seems to fly by quicker and quicker each year. Betting-wise, Week 3 was decent for me personally. I came out slightly ahead for the week, but it wasn’t anywhere near the monster Week 1 I had, and thankfully, nowhere near the beatdown I took in Week 2. As I noted on X, I made some aggressive adjustments to some teams that I felt like were way better or worse than my preseason priors, so rather than apply the usual, gradual phasing out of priors, I doubled the on-field weight for teams whose 2025 rating was +/- 10 points from the preseason rating I gave them. Hopefully, that will keep us from stubbornly betting teams like Kansas State every week. With those adjustments in hand, let’s turn to week 4 and grab some early week bets, courtesy of the T Shoe Index.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Duke Blue Devils (-2.5) vs. NC State Wolfpack, O/U 59.5
We bet on Duke two weeks ago in a somewhat fluky performance against Illinois, where they turned the ball over a ton, but then in Week 3, I bet Tulane laying points against Duke, and that worked out well. Duke now will host NC State, who I’ve also had action on and against so far this season, but I’d say overall, I’ve underrated the ‘Pack to this point. TSI actually makes NC State a 1-point favorite here on the road, and the on-field performances so far would make NC State a whopping 11-point favorite. So far this season, I’ve downgraded Duke 1.3 points while upgrading NC State 2.3 points in my ratings, so I’m going to back the upward-trajectory team that I project as a road favorite here.
College Football Pick: NC State +2.5
UTEP Miners (-4.5) vs. UL Monroe Warhawks, O/U 47.5
Speaking of my accelerated adjustments on teams based on the on-field product, this game features a huge disparity of where I had teams in the preseason vs where they’re at now. UTEP has been upgraded over 4 points, while ULM has been downgraded by 9.5 points. TSI is now projecting UTEP -11 in this game, and the on-field formula indicates we could be looking at a Miners’ blowout here. If UTEP can hang with Texas’s athletes in what was just a 27-10 game, I think they’ll manage ULM just fine, and ULM hasn’t covered a game yet this season, getting suffocated by Alabama and posting a mere 29-0 win over a bad FCS team, Saint Francis, before that. This line opened UTEP -1.5 and has already moved to 4.5 and is climbing, so grab it now before it moves even further.
College Football Pick: UTEP -4.5
For more Week 4 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 4 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
