It will be almost exclusively conference play from here on out, as Week 5 begins on the first day of October. It’s officially feeling like fall, another sign that the season is really getting going. We’ve had some marquee non-conference matchups that are always fun and exciting, but now it’s about winning conference titles, making the conference title game, and setting up your College Football Playoff chances.
For Week 5, the only FBS vs. FBS non-conference games we have are Notre Dame vs. North Carolina, Navy vs. Air Force, Middle Tennessee vs. Kansas, Army vs. Louisiana Tech, Cal vs. UNLV, and Syracuse vs. UConn. So, the two Independent teams, the three service academies, and just two random matchups.
Shout-out to the KillerSports database for a lot of this week’s game notes.
Week 5 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, September 27 at 3:05 p.m. ET
North Texas at Tulsa (-2, 58)
Thursday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The more interesting of the two Thursday games is this one, made more interesting by the fact that Tulsa, who beat Oklahoma State (who then beat Oregon), got blown out by Arkansas last week. The vibes have not been good in Fayetteville up until that point, but it should be noted that Golden Hurricane QB Baylor Hayes did not play. We’ll see if Hayes is able to return for the conference opener. If he is cleared, this line probably goes to 3, but I think it was mostly created with the expectation that he’s good to go.
Pitt at Virginia Tech (-4, 53)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Two undefeated teams match up here in Blacksburg, as James Franklin gets his first taste of Enter Sandman for a conference game at Lane Stadium. Per Jeff Sagarin, Pitt has played the 102nd-ranked schedule, while Virginia Tech has played the 123rd-ranked schedule. We usually get line movement with strength of schedule discrepancies at this time of the year. Because both teams have played weak slates, we won’t see that here, but I do think Pitt having played UCF and Syracuse will garner more respect than who VT has played. That said, this is Pitt’s first road game.
Penn State (-3, 46) at Northwestern
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Both teams dropped their Big Ten openers, but Northwestern’s six-point loss to Indiana as a massive underdog was far more impressive than Penn State’s choke job at home as a favorite against Wisconsin. What’s the current state of affairs for these two teams? How about this: in the last four head-to-head meetings (‘17, ‘22, ‘23, ‘25), Penn State has been favored by 20.5, 27, 25.5, and 14.5. This is a revenge game for the Nittany Lions after losing to the Purple Cats last season in Happy Valley 22-21.
Alabama (-6.5, 60) at Mississippi State
Saturday, Noon ET (ABC)
Kamario Taylor will get a chance to impress a national audience on network TV here with Alabama visiting Starkvegas to battle the Bulldogs. This is my favorite game of the week from a betting standpoint. We’ve seen a ton of love for Mississippi State and last week felt like maybe the top of the market with the Bulldogs laying six against a pretty good Missouri team. But, here they are getting almost a touchdown against Alabama. This is one of the least-talked about Bama bunches in a long time. But, EVERYBODY is talking about Kamario Taylor. I’m watching this line very closely.
Navy at Air Force (-2.5, 47)
Saturday, Noon ET (CBS)
Air Force is favored over Navy for the first time since 2023, after catching 9.5 in Colorado Springs back in 2024 and 13.5 in Annapolis last season. Over the last 20 meetings, the Under is 13-6-1 between these two teams. That’s hardly the run we’ve seen with the Army-Navy Game, but when you get two teams together that run the rock as much as these two do, you’ll get some Unders. That said, last season’s total of 51.5 was the highest since 2017 when the total was 54 and Navy won 48-45. Last year’s game comfortably went Over 51.5.
Ohio State (-14, 45.5) at Iowa
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Last week, Ohio State gave up 462 yards to Illinois, didn’t have any takeaways, and still won by 23 points. That wasn’t enough to cover the spread, though, and we did see some money trickle in on the Illini throughout the course of the week. I’m very intrigued to see what the market sentiment is here. Ohio State has played a really bad schedule outside of Texas and Iowa just had the walk-off win against Michigan. The Hawkeyes have a reputation for being very stingy on defense and we’ve already seen some interested parties on the Under here. Will the 14-point head start for the Hawkeyes be attractive in light of the lower-scoring expectation?
Ohio (-5.5, 50.5) at Kent State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
Much like the Penn State/Northwestern game, here’s an adjusted line that shows what has transpired between the two programs. Ohio was -20.5 in 2024 and -24.5 in 2023 and covered the spread in both of those games against Kent State. This week, Kent State is only a 5.5-point pup, with some early indications pointing towards this line coming down a little bit as the week goes along. Certainly not a game on most radars, but in the NIL/portal era, these types of spread adjustments will be more commonplace.
Eastern Michigan at UMass (-5.5, 48)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
If you know me at all, you knew this game was coming. Last week’s road favorite role at Sac State was the first time that the Minutemen had been favored on the road since Week 9 of the 2018 season. They won and covered with ease. They were favored over Eastern Michigan at home back in Week 1 of the 2024 season and lost 28-14. That is the last time that UMass was a home favorite over a FBS opponent. With a win here, UMass will improve to 5-0. Five wins would be the most in a season for them since joining the FBS ranks in 2012. Crazily enough, I do think this line has the chance to go higher, even after DraftKings opened a bad number at UMass -2.5.
UTEP at New Mexico (-22.5, 49.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (MW+)
Sorry, I know that a lot of these aren’t great games – not that we have many this week anyway. But, I’m fascinated by outliers and this is one. Going back to at least 1997, the only other favorite role of this size against a FBS team was Week 3 against rival New Mexico State in 2005 as a 22-point favorite. The Lobos won that game 38-21. Lofty goals here, but after Oregon State embarrassed UTEP last week and UNM beat New Mexico State badly, this number is warranted.
Kentucky at South Carolina (-3, 53)
Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Market confidence in South Carolina is pretty low right now. After blowing a big, early lead to Mississippi State, the Gamecocks were uncompetitive in Tuscaloosa against Alabama. Not only that, but star DE Dylan Stewart was throwing punches and yelling with coaches and there are lots of whispers about Shane Beamer’s job security. It was announced on Sunday afternoon that Stewart had been suspended indefinitely and the line started to move towards Kentucky as a result, but I think that was a line move that was going to come anyway. It should be said that South Carolina has a bye after playing Florida next weekend. Is that when the axe drops on Beamer?
Miami (FL) (-16.5, 49) at Clemson
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
These types of nuggets are going to be common in today’s article. Clemson is a home underdog for the first time since Week 10 2023 against Notre Dame, a game that the Tigers won 31-23 catching 2.5. This is the first time that Clemson is a double-digit home underdog since Week 12 of the 2003 season against Florida State. They won that game 26-10 catching 17.5. The last time Clemson was a home dog of more than four points was Week 3 of the 2005 season against Miami, catching seven in a 36-30 loss. Miami is elite, no question, but consider how far Clemson has fallen. Insane.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
