Week 5 College Football Line Moves and Late Bets from the T Shoe Index:

Welcome back to my weekly college football series, where I analyze the betting market for the week’s slate and see where there have perhaps been some overreactions (or underreactions) to what people just saw in the previous week that has them jumping the gun on some teams, creating value on the other side. We saw some pretty shocking performances last week, both good and bad, so let’s dive into the Week 5 college football market and see where we can capitalize on teams due for some regression to the mean.

 

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James Madison (-20.5; 57.5) vs. Ball State

Saturday, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN+)

Few, if any, performances outdid the fireworks show that James Madison put on the Tar Heels last week. If you tune into my weekly show “Bets of the North” on the Kings of the North YouTube channel, you were able to take advantage of this, as we gave out James Madison ML +315 for our plus-money bet of the week. However, because of that performance, the market has gone crazy and has driven this line from 15 to 20.5, with a stray 21 out there at the time of writing this. TSI only projects this game as James Madison -17, so the initial move was warranted, but it’s now gone through 17 and 20 and touching 21, which is too big of a move and through too many key numbers not to pass up. I honestly wouldn’t be in a rush to bet the 20.5, because I think by Saturday you’ll see 21s across the board, which is where I’d love to bet Ball State.

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Ball State +21 or better

Georgia Southern (+3.5; 58) vs. Georgia State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

The short-term memory of college football bettors is a fascinating phenomenon to observe. In this game, you’ve got Georgia Southern, who played a banger of a game with Mountain West favorite Boise State early in the season but got blown out by playoff contender Ole Miss last week; on the other hand, you’ve got Georgia State, who beat technically-an-SEC-team Vanderbilt in its last game, so what’s the market response? Drive the line from Georgia Southern -3 to Georgia State -3.5, a 6.5-point swing! TSI has Georgia Southern as a projected 6-point winner in this game, so I’m going to back the Eagles at a number the market has gifted us an additional ~21% edge on. 

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Georgia Southern +3.5 (Play to +3)

For more College Football Week 5 predictions, visit the College Football Week 5 Hub at VSiN.com.

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