Marquee matchups are going to get a lot of attention on the Week 5 college football schedule, and deservedly so. But, there are a lot of other intriguing games that don’t have Top 25 billing or major network coverage. Some “big” games have already been decided on by bettors who attacked Sunday’s opening college football lines. Other games will become big as the week goes along.
I mean no disrespect to Alabama vs. Georgia, Oregon vs. Penn State, LSU vs. Ole Miss, or any of the other headliners. This is simply to say that any game can be a big game in a sports betting context, especially one that has some wagering activity early in the week. One of the major misconceptions in sports betting is that “sharps” all end up on the same sides. The reality is that sharp groups go head-to-head all the time, as every individual, syndicate, or market-moving entity goes about things differently.
So what you see on Sunday could be just the beginning in the life cycle of a college football line. But, these are some of the games that you want to keep on your radar as the week goes along.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 5 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, September 21 at 8:30 p.m. PT
Florida State (-7, 57.5) at Virginia
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
A little Friday night ACC action to whet our appetites for the week. Nothing against Army and East Carolina, but we didn’t really see much early action in the American opener for Week 5. Not that we’ve seen a ton of activity here yet, but the books that did have 7.5 primarily moved down to 7 on this game. Fanduel was even sitting 6.5 at time of writing. Given what we saw early in the season from Florida State, seeing some whacks on the home Hoos here is a bit surprising. Now we wait to see if the market moves more towards 6.5 and then wait to see if that’s a real position or maybe some gamesmanship to get the Seminoles below the key number to pounce when limits go up.
Florida State-Virginia Matchup
TCU at Arizona State (-2.5, 54.5)
Friday, 9 p.m. ET (FOX)
Remember, not all moves will be spread-related. This total opened 58 at Circa and got hit hard on the open, so much so that we’ve seen a 3.5-point move. Given that TCU has been lighting up the scoreboard thanks to Josh Hoover, who had five TD passes against rival SMU last week, this is a pretty strong statement early in the week. Arizona State hasn’t been as explosive as they were last season due to some skill-position losses and that seems to be factoring in here as well.
Cincinnati at Kansas (-6, 55.5)
Noon, ET (TNT)
That’s not a typo. This game is on TNT. One of my favorite betting market dynamics is to see how teams are approached after a bye week when the other team does something impressive. Kansas wrecked West Virginia at home by a 41-10 count. The Bearcats didn’t play and really haven’t played in two weeks if you consider the 70-0 win over Northwestern State. Circa popped Kansas -8 here. Fanduel opened -6.5 and got bet all the way down to 3.5 before the market adjusted that line back. VSiN guest and pro bettor Brad Powers actually caught a Kansas -3.5 ticket. Let’s see where this line goes from here.
Arkansas State at UL Monroe (-3, 56.5)
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
I know you didn’t expect to see Arkansas State and UL Monroe get any virtual ink here, but a lot of money came in against the Warhawks last week for their game against UTEP and they went to El Paso off the bye and won outright. Meanwhile, Arkansas State lost to Kennesaw State, and the box score will say that it was only by a touchdown, but the Owls dominated that game on paper. Anytime you see a misleading final score, the market usually responds accordingly. That’s the case here, as UL Monroe opened -1.5 at Circa and DraftKings and is now -3 or -3.5 across the board.
Arkansas State-UL Monroe Matchup
Indiana (-7, 49) at Iowa
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)
The 3:30 window features quite a few fascinating lines, as well as that marquee LSU vs. Ole Miss tilt. This line jumped from -4 to -7 at Circa. DraftKings looked more like 6.5 and got to 7.5 before coming back down and settling on 7. Superbook here in town was still showing 7.5 as of Sunday night. Indiana’s demolition of Illinois absolutely opened some eyes and sent Google searches for Curt Cignetti through the roof. Iowa’s stingy defense is going to be tested, but you can bet that there will be sharp groups or individuals out there happy to scoop 7 with a defense that grades so well annually.
Utah (-10.5, 49.5) at West Virginia
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
This is one of my favorite lines to follow this week. Utah got run off the field at home in the final quarter by Texas Tech in a game that everybody seemed to have eyes on. After all, it was the Big Noon Kickoff game. There were a lot of preseason supporters for Utah in a wide-open Big 12 and those aspirations suffered a big setback last week. West Virginia has been as Jekyll and Hyde as any team in the nation to this point. A bad travel spot to be sure from Salt Lake City to Morgantown and opinions do seem split in the early going.
Cal at Boston College (-6.5, 52)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
I’ll be honest, I kind of forgot that the ACC Network was a thing. Anyway, Boston College opened -3.5 at Circa and -4.5 at DraftKings. DK did go all the way out to 7 before an astute bettor scooped up that number and dumped the line back down to 6.5. Cal just got crushed last week by San Diego State, but as I wrote in my Week 5 College Football Power Ratings article, it wasn’t as bad as that score looks. And the last time we saw BC, they lost by double digits to Stanford. I’m very interested in this line as the week goes along as well.
Hawaii at Air Force (-4.5, 54)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (FS1)
Unfortunately, we don’t get Hawaii on the island as a chase game. We get them in Colorado Springs instead, as they battle the Air Force Academy. Yet another line I am extremely interested in. So far, the Rainbow Warriors have been the preferred side, but Air Force went full-time with Liam Szarka last week and he threw for 246 yards and ran for 110 more. The Falcons gave up 49 points, nearly eclipsing their game total, but scored 37. As you would expect, this total jumped a little bit off the open, but obviously the more notable move was Micah Alejado and Hawaii getting a little love off of a close loss to Fresno State.
Tennessee (-8, 62.5) at Mississippi State
Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Things are going well in Starkville this season, as head coach Jeff Lebby has already doubled last season’s win output. DraftKings opened 10 on this game and Circa opened 9.5, but Bulldog money was more prevalent than Volunteers money at the open and here we are. Both teams played overmatched opponents last week, though Northern Illinois’s defense is legit and the Bulldogs dropped 38 points and 452 yards on them. Mississippi State has a win over Arizona State already, but doesn’t this one feel like the true test of where they actually are as a program?
Tennessee-Mississippi State Matchup
Liberty at Old Dominion (-15.5, 51.5)
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
The Monarchs are off of a bye after sending Brent Pry to the unemployment line a couple weeks ago in Blacksburg. Liberty is arguably the most disappointing Group of Five team in the nation, as it was once again set up for Jamey Chadwell’s team with a horrible schedule and an easy path to being at least in the conversation for a CFP spot. Coastal Carolina transfer Ethan Vasko seemed like a better fit than Kaidon Salter for what Chadwell wants to do. And the Flames stink. They’re a raging inferno of burning trash and tires. Circa actually opened this at 13.5 and money hit the ODU side. DraftKings got torched by a terrible opener of 8.5. We’ll see if any brave souls want to back the dog here and move this number down a tad.
Oregon at Penn State (-3.5, 52.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Fine, I guess I can talk about teams that most people know and are interested in. So far, it looks like this is the right number. Nearly every sportsbook on the screen sat 3.5 as of Sunday night. Some opened -3. Some opened -3.5. But, everybody came to the same early conclusion rather quickly. Even the total hasn’t moved much. Will this continue to be a game that screams “Bet Oregon at +3.5; bet Penn State at -3” or will we see the balance of power swing one way or the other? I’m truly not sure, but the anti-James Franklin in a big game sentiment probably shows up.
Alabama at Georgia (-3, 53.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
This game lost a little bit of its luster when Alabama opened the season with a loss to Florida State, but the nature of the College Football Playoff creates a bit more margin for error in the non-conference for SEC and Big Ten teams. Both teams are off of a bye. Kalen DeBoer beat Kirby Smart last year to improve to 4-0 and then promptly lost to Vanderbilt the next week, not that it has any bearing on this particular game, but it is an interesting side note since DeBoer has faced a good bit of scrutiny. You don’t really have to have a PhD in oddsmaking to have assumed that this line would come out 3. It just makes too much sense. Some shops did open 3.5 and even sat there as of Sunday night. It’s good to find out what you need to find out early in the week and the books are well-positioned to do just that.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
