Week 5 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 5 College Football Power Ratings:

Four weeks are in the books for the college football season and there is a lot to unpack. Like I said last week, the process of moving away from all the summer research to more heavily weigh what we’ve seen to this point takes place at this time of the season. Some teams that I wanted to fade have really exceeded expectations, while others have been exactly what I expected.

Other teams were bad at the outset and have figured it out, while others got off to decent starts and have faltered since. I think one of the biggest lessons I’ve learned over the years is that you really do have to be flexible and willing to adjust at all times. Digging in can be very costly. It may work out in the long run, but you have to know when to draw a hard line and when to bend that line a little bit.

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The nice thing is that if you are chasing a power rating for a team or just don’t have a good feel, you simply don’t have to bet on that team’s games. In college football, where the roster turnover is excessive and the performances can vary greatly, you can key in on the teams that you know you have a good feel for and bet on or against them accordingly. The beauty of the CFB schedule is that there are so many teams and there are so many games that you never have a shortage.

We have a lot more conference play this week and starting next week, we’ll see almost nothing but conference play. There isn’t quite as much familiarity between teams as there used to be with the portal, NIL, how often coaches change teams, etc., but conference games tend to have a little bit more predictability to them than the non-conference games.

They also mean a little bit more to the programs and coaches. In the never-ending arms race of college football, showing recruits that you can play well in conference action is hugely important. The better you play in those games, the better your chances of going to a bowl game or playing something else meaningful. Recruits want spotlight games. They want to play on big stages.

My power ratings are updated, box scores have been studied, and lines are out to use as a comparison.

Here are my Week 5 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	95.5	3
2	Ohio State	93	3.5
3	Texas	92	3.5
4	Alabama	89	3.5
5	Tennessee	89	3.5
6	Mississippi	87.5	3.5
7	Oregon	87.5	3.5
8	Miami (Florida)	86	2
9	Penn State	84	3.5
10	Clemson	83.5	3
11	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
12	USC	82	2
13	LSU	81	3.5
14	Louisville	80.5	3.5
15	Texas A&M	79.5	3
16	Utah	79.5	3.5
17	Iowa State	78	2
18	Kansas State	77.5	3.5
19	Oklahoma	77.5	3.5
20	Iowa	77	2.5
21	Missouri	77	2
22	Indiana	76	1.5
23	Michigan	76	3.5
24	UCF	76	3
25	Arkansas	74.5	2
26	Nebraska	74.5	2
27	Oklahoma State	74.5	3.5
28	Pittsburgh	74.5	2
29	Arizona	74	2
30	Boise State	73.5	2.5
31	BYU	73	2
32	Georgia Tech	73	1
33	Rutgers	73	2
34	South Carolina	72.5	2.5
35	Auburn	72	2
36	Kentucky	72	2.5
37	Kansas	71.5	2
38	Texas Tech	71.5	2.5
39	Virginia Tech	71.5	2
40	West Virginia	71.5	3
41	Florida	71	2
42	Washington	71	2
43	California	70.5	2
44	TCU	70.5	2.5
45	Boston College	70	1.5
46	Memphis	70	2
47	Tulane	70	2
48	Wisconsin	70	2
49	Florida State	69.5	2
50	Minnesota	69.5	2
51	SMU	69.5	3.5
52	Illinois	69	2
53	Maryland	69	2
54	Baylor	68.5	2
55	UNLV	68.5	2
56	Colorado	68	2
57	Arizona State	67.5	2
58	Michigan State	67.5	2.5
59	Virginia	67.5	2
60	Cincinnati	67	2
61	Fresno State	66.5	2.5
62	Syracuse	66.5	2.5
63	Oregon State	66	3.5
64	South Florida	66	2
65	UCLA	66	2
66	Washington State	66	2.5
67	Bowling Green	64.5	2
68	Louisiana-Lafayette	64.5	3
69	North Carolina	64.5	2.5
70	Liberty	63.5	3
71	Stanford	63.5	1
72	Duke	63	3
73	Purdue	63	2
74	Texas State	63	2
75	Wake Forest	63	2.5
76	Toledo	62.5	2.5
77	Miami (Ohio)	62	3
78	Northwestern	62	1.5
79	South Alabama	62	2.5
80	Houston	61	2
81	James Madison	61	3.5
82	Navy	60	2
83	Appalachian State	59.5	2.5
84	East Carolina	59.5	2
85	North Carolina State	59.5	3.5
86	San Jose State	59.5	2
87	Northern Illinois	59	1.5
88	UTSA	59	3.5
89	Vanderbilt	59	1
90	Army	58.5	2
91	Mississippi State	58.5	2
92	Sam Houston State	58.5	2
93	Western Kentucky	58.5	2.5
94	Coastal Carolina	58	2.5
95	UAB	58	2.5
96	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
97	Marshall	57	2
98	North Texas	57	2
99	Nevada	56.5	1.5
100	Arkansas State	56	2
101	Old Dominion	56	2
102	Jacksonville State	55	2.5
103	Western Michigan	55	2
104	Georgia State	54	2
105	Rice	53.5	2
106	Air Force	53	2.5
107	Ohio	53	2
108	San Diego State	53	2
109	Tulsa	53	1
110	Colorado State	52	1
111	Hawai’i	52	2
112	Buffalo	51.5	1
113	Connecticut	51.5	2
114	Troy	51	2.5
115	Utah State	51	2
116	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
117	Wyoming	49.5	2.5
118	Louisiana-Monroe	49	2
119	New Mexico	49	1
120	Louisiana Tech	48	2
121	Florida Atlantic	47.5	2
122	Southern Mississippi	47.5	2
123	Ball State	47	2
124	Central Michigan	46.5	2
125	Temple	46	2
126	Massachusetts	45.5	1
127	Charlotte	45	1
128	Akron	44.5	1
129	New Mexico State	44.5	2.5
130	UTEP	44.5	2
131	Florida International	44	1
132	Middle Tennessee	43.5	2
133	Kennesaw State	43	2
134	Kent State	37	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: South Alabama +3, Stanford +2, Illinois +2, San Jose State +2, Virginia +2, Michigan State +2, Buffalo +2, Indiana +2.5, James Madison +1.5, Louisville +2.5, Clemson +2.5, Miami (FL) +3, Iowa +1.5, Temple +3, Army +2.5, Rutgers +3, Fresno State +1.5, BYU +4, UTEP +1, Colorado +3, Jacksonville State +2, Arkansas +2.5, Tennessee +3, Louisiana +3.5, Texas Tech +3.5, Michigan +1.5, Bowling Green +3, Navy +5, UConn +2.5, Sam Houston State +2.5, Pitt +2, Toledo +1.5

Down: App State -4, Syracuse -2, Washington State -2, Houston -2.5, Coastal Carolina -2, Kent State -2, Akron -1.5, North Carolina -3, NC State -1.5, Minnesota -2, Ball State -1.5, Utah State -3, Rice -3, Virginia Tech -3, Kansas State -2.5, Colorado State -1, Baylor -2, Southern Miss -3, Purdue -2, Auburn -2.5, TCU -3.5, Oklahoma -1, Tulane -2, Wyoming -3, Missouri -4, USC -2, LSU -1.5, Mississippi State -4.5, Texas A&M -2, Memphis -4, Florida Atlantic -2.5, Tulsa -2, Middle Tennessee -2.5, New Mexico State -2.5, FIU -2, Oklahoma State -2.5, Florida State -1.5, Western Kentucky -1.5, Northern Illinois -2

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Navy +5: My market line was way off on Navy/Memphis last week, especially with how the game played out. I made adjustments to both, though my Navy line is still a little short this week, so I guess I haven’t gone far enough.

BYU +4: I had to make an adjustment because of what happened in that game and with their full body of work, but let’s be careful with adjusting too much on BYU. The Cougars were +3 in TO margin, ran back a fumble and a punt for a touchdown, and also benefited from three turnovers on downs from K-State. BYU only ran 48 plays and had 5.6 yards per play. It wasn’t the box score blowout that the final score indicated.

Texas Tech +3.5: Even in the loss to Wazzu, Texas Tech had a ton of yardage, but just didn’t turn it into points. I will say, like BYU, their box score was a touch misleading here and they only had 4.2 yards per play against Arizona State. I’m just making a market correction more than anything.

Louisiana +3.5: Same thing here. Market correction. Tulane was my favorite play of the week last week and they did win by 8, which is exactly where I had the game lined. I don’t think my Tulane power rating was the reason for the big discrepancy. I think it was my Louisiana one.

South Alabama +3: As I said, there were some teams I wanted to fade coming into the season that haven’t worked out. South Alabama appears to be one of them. They took an App State team I really liked out to the woodshed.

Temple +3: Temple is way better than I expected them to be. They’re still not good, but they’re quite a bit better than I thought they’d be.

Miami (FL) +3: Miami will get tested at some point, but they look awesome right now. Cam Ward is doing work in Coral Gables.

Mississippi State -4.5: Good lord, things are bad in Starkvegas. Mike Leach’s team would never have looked this bad, but it sure would’ve been interesting to hear one of his press conferences if he had a team like this one.

App State -4: Fart noise.

Memphis -4: Like I said, major market correction needed to Memphis after the Navy debacle. Based on my line this week against MTSU, I’m still a little high. That said, I’d lay it with Memphis this week. MTSU is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.

Missouri -4: I think I’ve neglected how pedestrian Missouri has looked this season. I feel like they were a decent bit better than Boston College last week and didn’t punish them very much. That was not a good performance against Vanderbilt over the weekend. A Vandy team that lost to Georgia State the week prior.

TCU -3.5: Market correction, bad performances. I will say, there is a big yards per play discrepancy here on the plus side for the Horned Frogs, so I’m curious to see if maybe they figure it all out.

North Carolina -3: Giving up a 70 burger to anybody is a really bad look. Giving it up to a retooled James Madison squad is quite nauseating. I was really wrong about this team.

Utah State -3: Maybe Temple is just much improved, but Utah State looked quite poor going cross-country. I may have underestimated just how much of an issue losing Blake Anderson before the season seems to be.

Here are my Week 5 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/26	Army	Temple	+10.5
9/27	Virginia Tech	Miami (FL)	-16.5
	Washington	Rutgers	-4
9/28	Eastern Michigan	Kent State	+11.5
	Liberty	App State	+1.5
	UTSA	East Carolina	-2.5
	Stanford	Clemson	-23
	Georgia Southern	Georgia State	+1.5
	Northern Illinois	NC State	-4
	San Diego State	Central Michigan	+4.5
	Louisiana	Wake Forest	-1
	Ball State	James Madison	-17.5
	North Carolina	Duke	-1.5
	Akron	Ohio	-10.5
	Maryland	Indiana	-8.5
	Buffalo	UConn	-2
	UMass	Miami (OH)	-19.5
	Colorado	UCF	-11
	Western Michigan	Marshall	-4
	Old Dominion	Bowling Green	-10.5
	Western Kentucky	Boston College	-13
	Nebraska	Purdue	+9.5
	Florida State	SMU	-3.5
	Kentucky	Mississippi	-19
	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	-6.5
	Cincinnati	Texas Tech	-7
	TCU (Arrowhead Stadium)	Kansas (1 pt HFA)	-2
	South Florida	Tulane	-6
	Arizona	Utah	-9
	Washington State	Boise State	-10
	Texas State (NRG Stadium)	Sam Houston State (N)	+4.5
	Navy	UAB	-0.5
	Middle Tennessee	Memphis	-28.5
	Mississippi State	Texas	-37
	BYU	Baylor	+2.5
	South Alabama	LSU	-22.5
	Iowa State	Houston	+15
	Charlotte	Rice	-10.5
	Oklahoma	Auburn	+3.5
	Louisiana Monroe	Troy	-4.5
	Tulsa	North Texas	-6
	Fresno State	UNLV	-4
	Oregon	UCLA	+19.5
	Arkansas (N)	Texas A&M (AT&T Stadium)	-5
	Louisville	Notre Dame	-6.5
	Illinois	Penn State	-18.5
	Minnesota	Michigan	-10
	Wisconsin	USC	-14
	Louisiana Tech	FIU	+3
	Georgia	Alabama	+3
	New Mexico	New Mexico State	+2
	Ohio State	Michigan State	+23
	Air Force	Wyoming	+1

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Rutgers -2.5 (-4) vs. Washington: If your power ratings are good, and hopefully mine are, the gaps between your numbers and the market should be getting smaller. Key numbers aren’t quite as important in college with more possessions and more variance, but this is one where it’s under 3 and I have to look long and hard at it, especially with the qualitative factors of a short week and long travel.

San Diego State -4.5 (PK) at Central Michigan: The Chippewas were a fade for me last week with Ball State and that came through. Will they be a fade again this week? San Diego State looks awful, but I think CMU is rather bad as well.

Texas Tech -4 (-7) vs. Cincinnati: I guess I’ll find out right away if bumping Texas Tech in my PRs was the right call. Without my adjustment for this week, my line is 3.5. It’s nice to find out right away sometimes.

Arizona +12.5 (+9) at Utah: I don’t know if Cam Rising will play. Nobody does. What I do know is that Arizona off of a bye is intriguing and that I think they were downgraded a little too much by the market for the Northern Arizona game and the Kansas State loss.

Sam Houston State +8 (+4.5) vs. Texas State: A neutral-site game here at NRG Stadium, home of the Texans. I’ve upgraded Sam Houston State a lot the last couple of weeks because the betting market seemed to have a more optimistic outlook than I originally did. Maybe I upgraded one too many weeks. Maybe I have Texas State too low. I guess we’ll find out.

BYU +2.5 (-2.5) at Baylor: I had Baylor as a road favorite against Colorado last week. Now I have BYU as a road favorite at Baylor. It seems I don’t have a good handle on the Bears. That said, they were very close to winning in Boulder and I think my number was okay on that game.

Rice -6.5 (-10.5) vs. Charlotte: I was way off on the Rice/Army line last week and this may just be a continuation of that. That being said, Charlotte’s atrocious and I think I have that correctly pegged in my power ratings.

Louisiana Monroe +8.5 (+4.5) vs. Troy: Monroe’s been good to me so far this season, as they crushed UAB in a spot where I had a big line discrepancy. I like them in this one, too. This is probably my favorite power ratings play of the week.

New Mexico State +7 (+2) vs. New Mexico: I think I just don’t have a handle on either one of these teams with new coaches and a lot of new players. Also, New Mexico lost 38-21 last week, but had 485 yards of offense. I won’t be betting this game because I probably just don’t have these teams rated properly, but it is an interesting game.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.