Week 5 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 5 College Football Power Ratings

Just about every game in Week 5 is a conference clash, as we have a smattering of random matchups, but the rubber is going to meet the road for lots of teams this week and beyond. This is not a commentary on any of these teams, but looking at Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule ranks, there are six teams ranked in the top 30 that have played schedules outside the top 100 – Indiana, Miami, Penn State, Nebraska, BYU, and Pitt. Texas Tech is 97th in that department.

Not surprisingly, as I look at my power ratings and spread projections for this week, some of those teams are in situations where I show value on that side. It should also be noted that Indiana failed to cover against Northwestern, Penn State lost to Nebraska, and I would expect to see more of those types of performances with the teams that are stepping up in class a little bit over the next few weeks.

Because a lot of the conferences have gone to the nine-game schedule, scheduling up in the non-conference has been greatly de-incentivized. Even though this week lacks marquee matchups, we’re going to find out a lot about the teams in the middle of their respective conferences, especially those who haven’t really played anybody yet or those who have underperformed because they’ve played a tougher set of teams. Each week is full of fact-finding missions.

Last week, I noted how it was a big week for me because I had some significant gaps in my spreads versus the market. I was right about UCLA, Illinois, Miami, and Oregon State and wrong about Kansas State, Penn State, Missouri, and USC. K-State and Penn State lost outright as favorites. But, the result isn’t the only thing that matters. Examining whether or not the line moved towards my number is also a key factor in determining how much to adjust, or not adjust, going into the next week. To some degree, every team is a moving target every single week and our job is to try and hit the target or at least be in the vicinity.

Week 5 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Notre Dame	92.5	3.5
2	Ohio State	91.5	3.5
3	Miami (Florida)	91	3
4	Georgia	90.5	2.5
5	Indiana	89	3.5
6	Oregon	88.5	3.5
7	Texas	88	3.5
8	Florida	87.5	2
9	LSU	86	3
10	Alabama	85.5	3.5
11	Mississippi	85	3.5
12	USC	82	3
13	Utah	81.5	2.5
14	Mississippi State	81	2
15	Tennessee	81	2.5
16	Nebraska	80.5	2
17	Texas Tech	80	3.5
18	BYU	79.5	3.5
19	Texas A&M	79	2
20	Auburn	78.5	2
21	Oklahoma	78.5	3
22	Louisville	78	3.5
23	Penn State	78	2.5
24	SMU	78	3.5
25	Houston	77.5	2
26	Iowa	77.5	3.5
27	Missouri	77.5	3.5
28	Michigan	77	2.5
29	Boise State	76.5	3.5
30	Kentucky	76.5	2
31	UCLA	75.5	1.5
32	Virginia	75.5	2
33	Pittsburgh	75	2.5
34	Wake Forest	75	2
35	Arizona	74.5	3
36	Northwestern	74.5	1.5
37	South Carolina	74.5	2.5
38	Kansas State	74	3
39	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
40	Washington	73.5	3.5
41	Oklahoma State	73	2
42	Vanderbilt	72.5	2.5
43	Arizona State	72	2
44	Duke	72	2.5
45	Baylor	71.5	1.5
46	Florida State	71.5	2.5
47	Wisconsin	71.5	2
48	Illinois	71	2.5
49	TCU	70	2.5
50	West Virginia	70	2
51	Clemson	69.5	2.5
52	Kansas	69.5	2.5
53	UCF	69.5	2
54	Minnesota	68.5	2.5
55	Cincinnati	68	1.5
56	Memphis	68	2.5
57	North Carolina	68	2
58	North Carolina State	67.5	2.5
59	UTSA	67.5	3.5
60	Michigan State	67	1.5
61	North Dakota State	67	3.5
62	New Mexico	66.5	2
63	Purdue	66.5	1
64	Georgia Tech	66	2
65	Maryland	65.5	2
66	Syracuse	65.5	2.5
67	Iowa State	65	2.5
68	Arkansas	64.5	1.5
69	California	63.5	2
70	Colorado	63.5	2.5
71	James Madison	63.5	3.5
72	UNLV	63	2.5
73	Oregon State	62.5	3.5
74	Stanford	62.5	1.5
75	Air Force	62	2
76	Rutgers	61.5	2
77	Army	60.5	2.5
78	Western Michigan	60.5	3.5
79	Fresno State	60	2
80	Texas State	60	2
81	Toledo	60	3.5
82	Tulsa	60	1
83	Washington State	60	3
84	Boston College	59.5	2
85	North Texas	59.5	2.5
86	South Florida	59.5	3
87	Colorado State	59	2
88	Florida Atlantic	59	1.5
89	Liberty	59	2.5
90	Navy	59	2.5
91	Troy	59	3
92	East Carolina	58.5	2
93	Connecticut	58	3
94	Jacksonville State	58	3.5
95	San Diego State	58	2
96	Tulane	58	2.5
97	Appalachian State	57.5	2
98	Miami (Ohio)	57.5	3.5
99	Louisiana-Lafayette	57	2
100	Temple	57	2
101	Nevada	56.5	1
102	Utah State	56.5	3
103	Florida International	56	2
104	Georgia Southern	56	3.5
105	Delaware	55.5	1
106	Old Dominion	55.5	1.5
107	South Alabama	55.5	2
108	Georgia State	54.5	1
109	Arkansas State	54	2.5
110	Louisiana Tech	54	2
111	UAB	54	2.5
112	Marshall	53	3.5
113	Middle Tennessee	53	1.5
114	San Jose State	53	2.5
115	Hawai’i	52.5	3
116	Ohio	52	3.5
117	Kennesaw State	51	2.5
118	Sam Houston State	50.5	2
119	Coastal Carolina	50	2
120	Rice	49.5	3
121	Wyoming	49.5	2
122	Western Kentucky	49	3
123	Missouri State	48.5	2
124	New Mexico State	48	2.5
125	Central Michigan	47	3
126	Massachusetts	47	1
127	Eastern Michigan	46	2.5
128	Kent State	45.5	1
129	Northern Illinois	44.5	1.5
130	Southern Mississippi	44.5	2
131	Buffalo	44	2
132	UTEP	44	1
133	Akron	42.5	2
134	Charlotte	41.5	1
135	Ball State	40.5	3
136	Louisiana-Monroe	40.5	2
137	Bowling Green	39.5	2
138	Sacramento State	34.5	2

Week 5 PR Adjustments

Up: Liberty +3.5, UAB +2, Northwestern +2, Rutgers +2, Nebraska +3, App State +1.5, Wake Forest +3, Iowa +2.5, South Alabama +1.5, Toledo +2.5, Florida +3, Cincinnati +2, Boise State +2.5, Oklahoma State +2.5, Wyoming +1.5, Mississippi State +3.5, Missouri State +1, UTSA +2.5, Oregon +2.5, Washington State +1.5, Jacksonville State +2, UMass +3.5, Stanford +2, Kent State +1.5, 

Down: Coastal Carolina -2.5, Navy -2.5, Cal -2.5, NC State -1.5, Louisville -2.5, South Florida -2, Texas -2.5, San Diego State -3, Virginia Tech -2.5, Kansas State -3.5, Western Michigan -2, Illinois -1.5, Penn State -4, Ball State -3.5, West Virginia -1.5, Washington -2.5, Hawaii -4, Sacramento State -3, Missouri -1.5, Texas A&M -3, Tulane -3.5, UL Monroe -3.5, USC -2.5, Arkansas State -2.5, Arizona -1.5, Georgia Tech -3, Buffalo -2, Akron -2.5, TCU -1.5, Michigan State -3.5, Bowling Green -2.5, New Mexico State -2, Eastern Michigan -4, Maryland -3, Delaware -2.5, Ohio -1.5, Marshall -3, Indiana -2.5

Admittedly, some of these teams are ones that have pinballed back and forth for me because there are some teams that have not found an ounce of consistency yet. Others? They’ve either moved up or down a lot this season and continued this week.

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Mississippi State +3.5: Kamario Taylor fever is alive and well. I have to say, though, Austin Simmons and Missouri played pretty well. I’m now above the market on the Bulldogs, so we’ll see if I’ve gone too far.

Liberty +3.5: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

UMass +3.5: I didn’t really plan to give UMass a bump for blowing out a horrendous Sac State team, but I put together my numbers and I was short on the Minutemen this week.

Florida +3: Based on the market, I’m now too high on Florida. I get that the spot for Ole Miss was awful, but the Gators look really strong.

Wake Forest +3: Jake Dickert can coach, man. And it sure seems like this is a better spot for Gio Lopez than North Carolina was.

Nebraska +3: This is one of those teams that hasn’t really played anybody yet, but they’ve done everything that’s been asked of them.

Penn State -4: A cautionary tale. Beating the hell out of nobodies should not be overvalued.

Hawaii -4: That performance off of a bye? Micah Alejado played. He’s not 100%. But that was hideous against Wyoming.

Eastern Michigan -4: I was low on this team and then the market went lower.

Tulane -3.5: They won, but I believe this team is quite bad.

Kansas State -3.5: A cautionary tale. Beating the hell out of nobodies should not be overvalued.

Michigan State -3.5: Part of this is keeping up with the market; but I’m thinking Wisconsin’s win got too much love. I might regret this, though the Cornhuskers took the Spartans to the woodshed. (I upgraded Michigan State 3.5 points last week)

UL Monroe -3.5: The bad teams are REALLY bad this season.

My Week 5 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
10/1	Western Kentucky	New Mexico State	-1.5
	North Texas	Tulsa	-1.5
10/2	Pitt	Virginia Tech	-0.5
	Liberty	Delaware	+2.5
	Penn State	Northwestern	+2
10/3	Syracuse	UConn	+4.5
	Toledo	Ball State	+16.5
	Temple	South Florida	-5.5
	Bowling Green	Miami (OH)	-21.5
	Virginia	Florida State	+1.5
	Vanderbilt	Georgia	-20.5
	Ohio	Kent State	+5.5
	Kentucky	South Carolina	-0.5
	Eastern Michigan	UMass	-2
	Miami (FL)	Clemson	+19
	Stanford	Wake Forest	-14.5
	Louisville	NC State	+8
	Memphis	Charlotte	+25.5
	Western Michigan	Buffalo	+14.5
	Maryland	Nebraska	-17
	Old Dominion (w/ Henicle)	Georgia State	PK
	Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina	+4
	Marshall	James Madison	-14
	Notre Dame	North Carolina	+22.5
	Auburn	Tennessee	-5
	Navy	Air Force	-5
	UCF	Houston	-10
	Michigan	Minnesota	+6
	Middle Tennessee	Kansas	-19
	UTSA	Rice	+15
	Akron	Central Michigan	-7.5
	Michigan State	Wisconsin	-6.5
	Purdue	Illinois	-7
	UL Monroe	South Alabama	-17
	Boston College	SMU	-22
	Texas Tech	Colorado	+14
	UTEP	New Mexico	-24.5
	Baylor	Arizona State	-2.5
	Cincinnati	Arizona	-9.5
	Washington	USC	-11.5
	Arkansas	Texas A&M	-16.5
	Ohio State	Iowa	+10.5
	BYU	TCU	+7
	Alabama	Mississippi State	+2.5
	Army	Louisiana Tech	+4.5
	Arkansas State	Louisiana	-5
	Florida	Missouri	+6.5
	West Virginia	Iowa State	+2.5
	Wyoming	North Dakota State	-21
	Cal	UNLV	-2
	Oregon State	Colorado State	+1.5
	Utah State	Boise State	-23.5
	Indiana	Rutgers	+25.5
	Fresno State	Washington State	-3
	Texas State	San Diego State	PK
	San Jose State	Hawaii	-2.5

Games to consider:

Pitt +4.5 (+0.5) at Virginia Tech: The weather didn’t help the Hokies against Boston College and they won with a big fourth quarter. I still think Pitt’s pretty good.

Delaware +7 (+2.5) vs. Liberty: I still don’t know if Liberty is any good or not. They did dominate Coastal Carolina, but that was a bad matchup for the Chants given the weather. Delaware is a very experienced team and I think they’re live here.

Miami (OH) -14.5 (-21.5) vs. Bowling Green: My biggest overlay of the week, as the Falcons are a team that I’ve just continued to drop further and further.

Michigan State +10.5 (+6.5) at Wisconsin: Even with a downgrade for Sparty, still the value side for me here in Madison.

Those are the big ones; there are a lot of games that are 2-3 points off hanging around key numbers. In theory, as the market tightens and as my ratings tighten, those smaller edges are more telling than they would have been early in the season, so there are quite a few games I’ll be thinking about this week.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.