Tuley’s Takes: MLB Divisional Series Best Bets:
Well, the much-anticipated MLB Wild-Card round was a letdown in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Our “dog or pass” plays on the Phillies and Cubs in their series losses to the Braves and Padres obviously didn’t hit as they only won one game between them (and that was the Phillies as short road favorites in Game 2). I was also bummed that I didn’t land on the lone series-winning dog with the White Sox. I can’t believe I didn’t want to fade the Astros, the team with the worst division-winning record in history at 81-81 (.500). What was I thinking? My only saving grace was passing on the Red Sox, who were swept by the Yankees.
Well, I guess I made another correct call. I usually like postseason Unders, but fortunately passed as Overs dominated at 7-1-1. For the record, my ViewFromVegas betting recaps graded favorites at 6-2 (White Sox had both dog wins) and home teams at 5-3 (as noted above, the difference was the Phillies winning Game 2 of their series as road chalk).
Now to the divisional playoffs, which start Saturday with four games at the teams that earned first-round byes. For the Game 1s, we’ll be looking at where those teams fare with “rest vs. rust.” Last year, three of the four advanced to the league championship series, with the exception being the No. 2-seeded Phillies, who had the misfortune of having to face the defending champion Dodgers.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Series price: Guardians -145/White Sox +125
Game 1 odds: Guardians -145/White Sox +135, Over/Under 7 u-125
The first game of this round is an AL Central battle after the White Sox couldn’t hold off the Guardians down the stretch and had to settle for a wild-card spot. Growing up in the Chicago suburbs as the son of North Siders, I’ve hated the White Sux (not a typo!) most of my life, but I have to reluctantly admit that I actually like this team – and this is honestly the first time I can say that since the South Side Hitmen of 1977 as I respected and enjoyed watching OF Ralph Garr, OF Richie Zisk, OF Chet Lemon, DH Oscar Gamble, C Brian Downing, 2B Jorge Orta and 3B Eric Soderholm (who handed me my trophy when my Indians team won the Glenside Baseball Major championship in 1977, please don’t remind me it’s 49 years ago!), plus a pitching staff that included Wilbur Wood and Steve Stone.
This current team with stars Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth and Sam Antonacci isn’t as fun as that team, but they’ve done an amazing job of turning around the organization that had lost 100 games in the three previous seasons, including a record 121 in 2024. The White Sox led the division most of the summer, including by as many as 5.5 games in August, but the Guardians, who had lost Jose Ramirez for five weeks from mid-June to mid-July, were able to stay close enough to catch the Sox in September.
Regardless, the White Sox did win the season series 7-6, so I’m confident they can take this shorter series as well. The White Sox also have the edge in power hitting and starting pitching. We’ll give the Guardians credit for the stronger bullpen, but hopefully the Sox get early leads and hold on.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: White Sox +125 in series and +135 in Game 1 and any other games as an underdog.
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Series price: Dodgers -215/Braves +185
Game 1 odds: Dodgers -220/Braves +195, Over/Under 8
Not only was I disappointed about losing money on the Phillies in their Wild Card series with the Braves, but I also felt they had a much better chance of knocking off the two-time World Series champions.
I do respect how well the Braves play as a team, but I don’t think they can match the Dodgers power-wise or by manufacturing enough runs against an unfair rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Tyler Glasnow, and Blake Snell. The Braves do have a great bullpen, but I’m afraid they won’t get to protect many late leads.
I was tempted to look at the Under (Game 1 is set at 8 runs, 110 each way), but the Dodgers also have the best lineup that money can buy. The Braves are also hurt by the fact they used their ace, Chris Sale, in Game 1 of the Wild Card round and then again in Game 3, so we probably won’t see him until the series moves to Atlanta.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: Pass, except for maybe the Under in Game 3 or 4 with Sale pitching for the Braves
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Series price: Yankees -120/Rays +100
Game 1 odds: Rays -129/Yankees 119, Over/Under 7 u-120
Both American League series are intradivisional, with the AL East’s Yankees taking on the division-winning Rays after sweeping the Red Sox 2-0 by scores of 9-0 and 9-2.
The Rays did win the season series 7-6, but the Yankees are actually the series favorites, and it’s interesting to note they outscored the Rays 54-45, or an average of 4.2 to 3.5. This really looks like a case where the Rays would need to win any one-run game.
You know I’m not going to recommend the Yankees as series chalk (even at such a low price as I’m still “Mr. Dog or Pass”), but I’ll certainly take them in any game as an underdog, which starts in Saturday’s Game 1. The Yankees used Cam Schlittler in their Wild Card sweep, so they’re going with Gerrit Cole (10-9, 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) in the opener. The Rays are going with Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), so his stats are better than Cole’s, and he was 2-1 vs. New York this season, so I get why the Rays are favored coming in rested at home. However, I’ll still take Cole vs. the Rays’ lineup (which could have rust as well), as he was 0-1 in two starts but held them to five hits and just two earned runs (2.19 ERA) in 11 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: Yankees +119 in Game 1 and any game as underdog.
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Series price: Brewers -190/Padres +165
Game 1 odds: Brewers -208/Padres +185, Over/Under u-115
The Padres swept my beloved Cubs out of the playoffs, which was tough to watch as the Padres are my second-favorite NL team. They now take on my least-favorite team in the Brewers (even more so than the Cardinals as a lifelong Cubs fan).
The Brewers won 103 games to win the No. 1 seed over the Dodgers, but I think everyone agrees the Dodgers are still the best team in the NL and all of baseball, and I’ll put the Padres right behind them and ahead of the Brewers as they’re built like a power-hitting playoff team along with a great bullpen.
The Brewers throw out flamethrowing ace Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, ridiculously low 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) in Saturday’s Game 1. The Padres counter with Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), who isn’t too shabby, but clearly a cut below Misiorowski.
I was tempted to pass on the Padres in Game 1 and hope to get an even better series price if they lost; however, they are coming in hot off their sweep of the Cubs, and I would hate for them to steal Game 1 and for me to miss out on a juicy future bet (as they would probably flip to series faves). So I’m jumping in right away.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: Padres +165 to win series and +185 in Game 1 and any other game as underdog.
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