Week 6 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 6 College Football

What was billed as a huge Saturday of college football lived up to the hype. Double overtime in Happy Valley. One-possession game in Oxford and a walk-off in Champaign. A thriller in Athens. It was a good follow-up to one of the wildest (and scariest) field stormings we’ve ever seen on Friday night in Charlottesville. But, man, all of these results and some of the inherent randomness made Week 6 college football power ratings a challenge.

The way that wins and losses wind up aging is an important part of evaluating teams, but at the same time, we’re seeing a lot of disparate performances out of teams this season. Not just on a weekly basis, but on a half-to-half or even quarter-to-quarter basis with some of them. A lot of times it feels like the play calling or the psychological side of the game is to blame. Obviously the players are still all learning each other and how to play together, even this late in the season, but coaches get conservative and the teams adopt that identity with how they’re playing.

Of course the carryover effect to the next game then becomes a big factor as we handicap the next round of games. That’s why box score study is so important. There were some games last week, like LSU vs. Ole Miss and Rice vs. Navy that were not nearly as close as the final scores would suggest. There were other games, like Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP, that are not reflected in the final score.

With so many games, it’s impossible to have eyes on all of them. Surely we all run through and check the scores and also compare the final against the spread and total, but how we got to that point is essential to know for looking ahead. With that said, now it is time to look ahead.

Week 6 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Oregon	90.5	3.5
2	Ohio State	90	3.5
3	Alabama	88.5	3.5
4	Penn State	88.5	3.5
5	Georgia	88	3
6	Miami (Florida)	86.5	2
7	Indiana	85.5	2.5
8	Texas A&M	84	2
9	Texas	83.5	3.5
10	Mississippi	83	3
11	Missouri	83	3.5
12	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
13	Texas Tech	82.5	3
14	Oklahoma	82	3
15	LSU	81.5	3.5
16	Arizona State	81	2
17	Notre Dame	81	3
18	USC	81	3
19	Michigan	80.5	3
20	Utah	80.5	3
21	Auburn	79.5	2
22	Vanderbilt	79.5	1.5
23	Florida	77	2
24	Florida State	77	2
25	TCU	77	3
26	BYU	75.5	2
27	Iowa	75.5	3
28	Washington	75.5	3.5
29	Nebraska	75	2
30	Clemson	74	2.5
31	Georgia Tech	74	2
32	Iowa State	74	2
33	SMU	74	3.5
34	South Carolina	74	2.5
35	Louisville	73.5	3.5
36	Baylor	73	2
37	Illinois	73	2
38	Mississippi State	73	2
39	Cincinnati	72	1.5
40	Kansas	71.5	2.5
41	Arkansas	71	2
42	Minnesota	71	2
43	Houston	70.5	2
44	Virginia	70.5	2
45	Rutgers	70	2
46	South Florida	70	1.5
47	Colorado	69.5	2
48	Boise State	69	3.5
49	Duke	69	3.5
50	James Madison	69	3
51	Arizona	68.5	2
52	Pittsburgh	68.5	2
53	Wisconsin	68.5	2
54	Michigan State	68	2
55	North Carolina State	68	2
56	Tulane	68	2.5
57	Kansas State	67.5	3.5
58	Kentucky	67	2
59	Memphis	67	2.5
60	Boston College	66.5	2
61	Navy	66	2
62	California	65.5	2
63	Virginia Tech	65.5	2
64	North Texas	65	2
65	Texas State	64.5	2
66	UCF	64.5	2
67	Maryland	64	2
68	East Carolina	63	2
69	Old Dominion	62.5	1.5
70	Fresno State	62	2
71	Northwestern	61	1.5
72	UNLV	61	2.5
73	Ohio	60.5	3.5
74	Toledo	60.5	3
75	Utah State	60.5	2
76	Wake Forest	60.5	2
77	Air Force	60	2
78	Army	60	2.5
79	Syracuse	60	2.5
80	West Virginia	60	2
81	North Carolina	59	2
82	Hawai’i	58.5	2
83	UTSA	58.5	3.5
84	Bowling Green	58	2
85	Purdue	58	1
86	Oregon State	57	3.5
87	Connecticut	56.5	2.5
88	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
89	New Mexico	56.5	2
90	Miami (Ohio)	56	2.5
91	San Diego State	56	2
92	UCLA	56	2
93	Georgia Southern	55.5	3.5
94	Southern Mississippi	55.5	2
95	Western Kentucky	55.5	2.5
96	Rice	54.5	3
97	San Jose State	54	2.5
98	Delaware	53.5	3
99	Jacksonville State	53.5	3.5
100	South Alabama	53.5	2
101	Oklahoma State	53	2
102	Temple	52.5	2
103	Tulsa	52.5	1
104	Wyoming	52.5	2
105	Louisiana-Monroe	52	2
106	Buffalo	51.5	2
107	Central Michigan	51.5	2
108	Stanford	51.5	1
109	Troy	51.5	3
110	Washington State	51.5	3
111	Colorado State	51	2
112	Florida International	51	2
113	Northern Illinois	51	1
114	Florida Atlantic	50	2
115	UTEP	50	2
116	Appalachian State	49.5	2
117	Arkansas State	49.5	2
118	Western Michigan	49	2
119	Georgia State	48	1
120	Liberty	48	3
121	Marshall	48	3
122	Coastal Carolina	47.5	2
123	Louisiana-Lafayette	47.5	2
124	UAB	47.5	2.5
125	Kennesaw State	47	1.5
126	Nevada	47	1
127	Eastern Michigan	46.5	2
128	Charlotte	45	1
129	Missouri State	44.5	2
130	Sam Houston State	43	0.5
131	New Mexico State	42.5	2.5
132	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
133	Akron	41	2
134	Massachusetts	39.5	1
135	Kent State	39	1
136	Ball State	38	2.5

Here are my Week 6 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Virginia +1.5, Arizona State +3, Bowling Green +4, James Madison +4, Old Dominion +1, San Diego State +2.5, Boston College +1.5, UConn +1, Indiana +3, Pitt +1.5, Wake Forest +3.5, Rutgers +1.5, Vanderbilt +1.5, Utah State +1.5, New Mexico +5, Southern Miss +1.5, Cincinnati +3, Arizona +2, North Texas +2, Kansas State +2.5, Mississippi +2.5, UL Monroe +2.5, Washington State +1.5, Alabama +1.5, Washington +1, Colorado +2, Oregon +1.5, Air Force +2, Hawaii +2, Virginia Tech +1.5, Memphis +1.5, Delaware +3, BYU +1.5, Florida Atlantic +1

Down: Florida State -1.5, Liberty -2, Northern Illinois -1, Arkansas -3, Cal -1, Iowa -1, Louisville -2.5, Georgia Tech -1.5, Minnesota -2, App State -4, New Mexico State -3, San Jose State -2.5, Jacksonville State -1, Kansas -4, South Alabama -3, UCF -2, LSU -3, Louisiana -2, USC -2, Colorado State -2.5, Penn State -1.5, Georgia -1, TCU -2.5, Arkansas State -2.5, Navy -1, Missouri State -4, Stanford -1.5, Kentucky -2, West Virginia -3.5, Baylor -3.5, Ohio -4, Oklahoma State -3, Florida -2, Illinois -1.5, Rice -2

Some notes on the biggest movers:

New Mexico +5: The Lobos were able to cover against rival New Mexico State and my line was quite a bit off-market. Jason Eck is certainly doing some good work in Albuquerque and his team deserved a big bump.

Bowling Green +4: This is mostly a market adjustment, as the Falcons closed well off of my number against Ohio, even though they didn’t cover. They didn’t cover my number, which was -14. I’m high on Ohio again this week despite a four-point market adjustment, so I guess the Bobcats are still too high for me. Nevertheless, I made a big adjustment to both teams this week.

James Madison +4: The Dukes are really good again. Bob Chesney is going to get an interview at Virginia Tech and probably a few other places. Maybe Boston College opens up.

Wake Forest +3.5: The Demon Deacons looks greatly improved, as I expected. I had them +14 and they nearly won outright. But, I think they deserve a PR bump as well. They played three games in 13 days to open the season with a first-year head coach in Jake Dickert, new coordinators, and, of course, a bunch of new players.

Arizona State +3: The box score for TCU vs. ASU tells quite a story. It was a 27-24 game, but the Sun Devils had a 500-271 edge in yardage. TCU had 24 carries for 12 yards. Kenny Dillingham has his team playing really well again.

Cincinnati +3: I was too high on Kansas with my number last week and the Jayhawks lost outright. Of course, Jalon Daniels still had 445 yards on just 19 completions in the losing effort. Nevertheless, my line was wrong and I’ve adjusted both teams.

App State -4: Woof. This team is really, really bad. Turns out Dowell Loggains may not have been a good hire.

Kansas -4: The aforementioned market correction off of Cincinnati/Kansas (my line was -9).

Missouri State -4: This is a big one here, as the Bears lost QB Jacob Clark in their first year as a FBS member. This might not be enough, as he was on crutches with a big knee brace on during the second half.

Ohio -4: I still think Ohio is the best team in the MAC. But it’s clear I’ve been too high on them. My line is even high this week. So I’ll either keep progressively going towards the market or stop here and consider them a “play-on” team.

West Virginia -3.5: QB Nicco Marchiol did not play last week. Maybe WVU looks ahead to the future now in Year 1 of RichRod Part Deux. I guess we’ll see. But either way, getting pumped by Utah in a tough spot for the Utes wasn’t a good look.

Baylor -3.5: I’ve certainly had a hard time power-rating Big 12 teams, both this season and last season. It’s probably because they’re all just so interchangeable.

LSU -3: Like I said above, LSU vs. Ole Miss was not as close as the final score suggests. I don’t even know if -3 is enough, but LSU is off this week, so I can analyze more and decide what I want to do before they play South Carolina.

My Week 6 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/2	Sam Houston	New Mexico State	-2
10/3	Charlotte	South Florida	-26.5
	Western Kentucky	Delaware	-1
	New Mexico	San Jose State	PK
	West Virginia	BYU	-17.5
	Colorado State	San Diego State	-7
10/4	Oregon State	App State	+5.5
	Air Force	Navy	-8
	Coastal Carolina	Old Dominion	-16.5
	Kentucky	Georgia	-24
	UTSA	Temple	+4
	Kansas	UCF	+5
	Iowa State	Cincinnati	+0.5
	Virginia	Louisville	-6.5
	Washington	Maryland	+9.5
	Wisconsin	Michigan	-15
	Clemson	North Carolina	+13
	Minnesota	Ohio State	-22.5
	Boston College	Pitt	-4
	Wake Forest	Virginia Tech	-7
	Central Michigan	Akron	+8.5
	Ohio	Ball State	+20
	Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	-7
	Western Michigan	UMass	+8.5
	James Madison	Georgia State	+20
	UL Monroe	Northwestern	-10.5
	Tulsa	Memphis	-17
	South Alabama	Troy	-1
	Michigan State	Nebraska	-9
	Miami (OH)	Northern Illinois	+4
	Oklahoma State	Arizona	-17.5
	Duke	Cal	+1.5
	Penn State	UCLA	+30.5
	Texas	Florida	+4.5
	Miami (FL)	Florida State	+7.5
	Illinois	Purdue	+14
	Vanderbilt	Alabama	-12.5
	FAU	Rice	-7.5
	Texas Tech	Houston	+10
	Colorado	TCU	-10.5
	Kansas State	Baylor	-7.5
	Army	UAB	+10
	Syracuse	SMU	-17.5
	FIU	UConn	-8
	Boise State	Notre Dame	-15
	Kent State	Oklahoma	-46
	Mississippi State	Texas A&M	-13
	UNLV	Wyoming	+6.5
	Texas State	Arkansas State	+13
	Nevada	Fresno State	-17

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Oregon State -1.5 (-5.5) at App State: Long, awkward trip from Corvallis to Boone (highest elevation in FBS east of the Mississippi, fyi), but App State is really, really bad.

Washington -5.5 (-9) at Maryland: Long, awkward trip from Seattle to College Park, but I was impressed with Washington’s defense against Ohio State. And Demond Williams has looked great against mediocre defenses, like what he should get here.

Tulsa +21 (+17) at Memphis: Still not sure Memphis is legit and Arkansas’ no-show against Notre Dame got Sam Pittman fired, so that was bubbling. Tulsa’s played very well in the underdog role thus far.

Florida +7 (+4.5) vs. Texas: I actually had this line even lower before making a slight adjustment. LSU might be cheeks, but Florida had five interceptions in that 20-10 loss and the defense played exceptionally well. Arch Manning may be in for a very hard day.

Rice -3.5 (-7.5) vs. Florida Atlantic: Like I said, the Rice/Navy game was very, very misleading. But, Florida Atlantic is 100th in the nation in yards per play and 98th in yards per play on defense. Per Sagarin, they’ve played the 84th-ranked schedule. I think they’re just terrible.

Colorado +14.5 (+10) at TCU: The Buffaloes have been better over the last two weeks with Kaidon Salter back at the helm. I do like TCU a lot, especially Josh Hoover. But, this line is too high in my mind.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.