Bettors and bookmakers have updated their data and the focus is now on the Week 6 college football schedule and the odds that are up on the board. The Week 5 results were a really good data set for people on both sides of the counter because we saw some good teams step up in class and play comparable opponents, while we also saw some teams coming off of byes have impressive performances.
The chaos of the transfer portal and coaching carousel make it really tough to define what’s real and what isn’t early in the season, but this past week gave us a lot of insightful results. That’s especially true for the sportsbooks because some of the very visible, very public teams went head-to-head.
While we don’t have nearly as many marquee matchups this week, there are several games with significant implications and the life cycle of the betting odds is just beginning, so we’ll have plenty to follow as the days peel off the calendar.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 6 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, September 28 at 6:45 p.m. PT
Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1, 51.5)
Noon ET (ESPN2)
With no noteworthy action on the weeknight games yet, we start on Saturday with a flipped favorite. DraftKings, Fanduel, and Circa felt like Iowa State should be a road favorite here. DK actually opened on the key number of 3, while FD and Circa opened 2.5. Bettors jumped on the points with the Bearcats and now Cincy is the smallest of favorites at home. The Bearcats came off the bye to score a nice upset win over Kansas and it does seem like opinions are not terribly high on Iowa State right now, as their wins aren’t aging well. Well-respected handicapper and VSiN guest Brad Powers even caught a Cincinnati +3.5 earlier today.
Wisconsin at Michigan (-16.5, 41.5)
Noon ET (FOX)
It’ll be interesting to see how hard Gus Johnson has to try to make this game exciting in the Big Noon Kickoff timeslot. We haven’t seen any line movement here, but I am watching this line closely. Typically when you see 16.5 with a total in the low 40s, underdog money is almost automatic. It isn’t necessarily because the underdog looks attractive. It’s just because a three-score head start in a game with a low-scoring expectation is theoretically beneficial. We didn’t really see any Badger bucks on Sunday night. I’m wondering if we do as the week goes along.
Air Force at Navy (-10.5, 49)
Noon ET (CBS)
The first game of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series gets a national audience on CBS in Week 6. Bookmaking isn’t an easy job and I won’t pretend to know all of the ins and outs. But, there are absolutely times when a bad line gets posted. That was the case here. Fanduel opened the total on this game at 57.5. I get it. Air Force has played two extremely high-scoring games the last two weeks. But, they got caught on this one. Bettors destroyed the Under, taking the total all the way down to 48.5. Circa opened a far more conservative 50.5 and got hit on the Under. Money on the side seems fairly split in the early going, but the total position was loud and clear.
Texas (-7, 43) at Florida
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
One of this week’s mammoth matchups features Texas vs. Florida. This is one of those lines that will be talked about a lot over the course of the week. Right now, the key number of 7 seems to work. Florida’s defense is spectacular and so we see that total down at 43. Arch Manning has not been spectacular. I think Florida will look attractive to the public in this matchup. What will keep the line at 7 or even push it to 7.5 is what sharper bettors think. Remember, not every game has a “sharp side” and a “public side”. Sometimes sharp money is nominal on a game. Sometimes sharp sides are both ways. This is one to watch closely on Monday and Tuesday as the big betting syndicates and groups with a lot of subscribers release plays to their clients.
Vanderbilt at Alabama (-10.5, 57)
3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Alabama is coming off of a hard-fought game against Georgia, and one in which the Crimson Tide held on for dear life in the second half. Upset machine Diego Pavia and underdog casher Clark Lea have taken the early interest in this one. Circa opened Alabama 12. DraftKings had a brief 14 and Fanduel had 13.5. With the national audience, a lot of stats to back up Pavia and the ‘Dores as a dog, and what I think is still some ongoing skepticism about ‘Bama, I’m curious to see if this line is done coming down.
Oregon State (-1.5, 54.5) at Appalachian State
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
I’m always fascinated by games like this. Obviously the matchup in and of itself is intriguing, as the crew from Corvallis heads to Boone, NC for a game actually played in a little bit of elevation. It is a quirky travel spot to say the least, as Oregon State is just playing anybody who would schedule them in their final season without a conference affiliation. But, what I truly love about this game is that the sportsbooks more or less said, “You tell us what to do”. DraftKings opened App State -1.5. Fanduel opened Oregon State -1.5. Circa slapped App State -2 on it and moved accordingly based on the early action that they saw. And that action was on the Beavs.
Oregon State-App State Matchup
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (-9.5, 49.5)
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
I talk about games like this every week, but I cannot stress how important it is to take stock in every game and every line movement from Sunday night. Every Sunday night move isn’t going to be the be-all, end-all for the line, and sharp groups often end up going head-to-head on different sides of a game. But, when you see a line move like this one, you notice.
Influential bettors have been fading Buffalo a lot. Last year’s 9-4 record had a lot of smoke and mirrors attached to it and there was some significant interest in betting Buffalo’s season win total Under. And there’s been weekly interest in picking against this team. Not this week, though. Some shops opened as low as 7.5 here. Circa opened 8. Given the action we’ve seen against Buffalo, I would’ve expected money against them. It hasn’t hit and that speaks to how bad Eastern Michigan is.
Eastern Michigan-Buffalo Matchup
FIU at UConn (-9, 55)
3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Oh yeah! Breathe it all in, baby. FIU and UConn! You won’t find many early-week articles with coverage of this barnburner, but we’ve seen FIU money hit the board. Honestly, I can’t think of many weeks over the last several years with Sunday night FIU money, regardless of opponent. UConn is usually a sneaky sharp team, but this is also an unsavory situation as a big favorite as opposed to a big underdog. It’s the Buffalo theory here – when a bad team or a team that has been bet against early is taking money, you should take notice.
Texas Tech (-12.5, 50.5) at Houston
7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is a game that drew some interest on Sunday. And one-way interest at that, as the Red Raiders immediately took money against Houston. Circa actually opened 9 here and didn’t seem to get anything back on the Cougars. Houston had all sorts of problems with what we pretty much all agree is a subpar Oregon State team. We haven’t seen Texas Tech since they pummeled Utah in Salt Lake City, but obviously everyone remembers how that game went. The lads from Lubbock also crushed Oregon State, so maybe the common opponent factor is playing into this one, too.
Miami (FL) (-5, 53.5) at Florida State
7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
A huge one here. If Miami wins, their path to the ACC Championship Game is as clear and carved-out as possible. Using my Week 6 College Football Power Ratings, Miami is no lower than -9 (at SMU) the rest of the way and -15 or higher in every other game. They basically punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff here barring a complete and utter disaster.
Speaking of disasters, we almost had one involving Squirrel White when Cavaliers students stormed the field after UVA’s win last Friday night. Despite Florida State’s setback, the Seminoles seem to be the more popular side here, as 6.5s have become 5.5s or 5s. Circa did open 5 here and was able to weather the early storm. But 5 is in a dead zone, especially for college football, so time will tell if we move towards 4 or towards 6. I think it’ll be the latter.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
