Week 6 College Football
Welcome to the Week 6 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my T Shoe Index, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models align and disagree on the slate. This analysis helps pinpoint where there are betting opportunities on model alignment, and where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 6 College Football Model Alignment:
Model Consensus
Florida State vs Miami (-4.5), O/U 53.5
Florida State is coming off what was one of the most electric games of the young season, a game which saw perhaps the smoothest field storming you’ll ever see by the Virginia student section after the Cavaliers upset the Seminoles as touchdown underdogs. Nonetheless, the Seminoles have no time to mope as they prepare to take on in-state rival and Top 5 team in the country, the Miami Hurricanes.
Our models have an average projection of Miami -3.5 with a variance of just 2.3 points. TSI is right in line with the market at Miami -4.5, but all three other models indicate value on the ‘Noles, with SP+ being the most conservative at Miami -2.1, with FPI and Sagarin falling between -3.5 and -4. This line has been coming down, indicating the market agrees with the model consensus here and is backing Florida State in the bounceback spot.
College Football Pick: Florida State +4.5
North Carolina vs Clemson (-14), O/U 46.5
Clemson is obviously one of the most disappointing teams so far this season after starting just 1-3 despite lofty preseason expectations. Dabo’s team is coming off a bye week and will take on Bill Billichick’s UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill as two-touchdown favorites. Our models are staunchly aligned on the side of the ‘dog here, with a model average projection of Clemson -6.6 with a variance of just 3.2.
FPI is the most bullish on Clemson, but even that model projects the Tigers as just 8.3-point favorites. Sagarin, TSI and SP+ all are at Clemson -7.7 or below, indicating a ton of value on the Tar Heels, who have been somewhat disappointing in their own right in BB’s first season at the helm.
College Football Pick: North Carolina +14
Model Disagreement
Texas A&M (-14.5) vs Mississippi State, O/U 55.5
The Texas A&M Aggies are getting a lot of love in the market now after beating Notre Dame, who is still power rated in most models’ Top 10. Mississippi State has been a pesky underdog, mostly at home, but is still exceeding expectations this season.
Only one of our models thinks A&M covers this lofty spread in a conference game though, and that’s Sagarin with a projection of the Aggies -18, while the other three models are between Texas A&M -5 and -10, with an overall average projection of Texas A&M -10.4 and a variance of 13.1. Overall, there seems to be some value on the ‘dog here, but it’s not unanimous so it’s probably a pass for me.
Houston vs Texas Tech (-11.5), O/U 51.5
Tech has been one of the biggest upgrades in college football power ratings this season, especially after going to Salt Lake City and destroying Utah, who was a preseason Big 12 favorite. Houston has actually been better than expected also, getting a two-point bump in my TSI ratings so far this year.
Our model average projection on this game is Tech -8.5 with a variance of 10.9 points. SP+ is the only model calling for a Raiders cover at -13.9, while Sagarin is only at -3 in favor of Texas Tech, with TSI and FPI at -10.5 and -7, respectively. For me, it would be Houston or nothing, but it’s not impossible to think the SP+ projection comes to fruition and Tech wins by 14 here, so I’ll probably pass.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
