Week 6 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 6 College Football Power Ratings:

Week 6 of the college football season has the chance to be chaotic. There are not a lot of big, impactful games, but there are a lot of road favorites. By my numbers, I have 26 road favorites out of 49 games. Some of them are only a half-point or a one-point favorite, so those are effectively toss-up games, but there are a lot of big road favorites as well of over a touchdown.

Most of this week’s games are conference contests as well, so it will be interesting to see how those games play out, especially with some of the long road trips for teams in the Big Ten and ACC with teams going to places that they aren’t used to going. Michigan State is trekking all the way to Eugene. Virginia Tech is going to Palo Alto. Miami is going to Berkeley. USC is going to Minneapolis. Michigan is playing the first road game of the season in Seattle in a rematch of the National Championship Game with two very different-looking rosters. UCLA is in Happy Valley.

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It should make for a compelling week of games, even if we’re lacking the signature games that make college football so exciting. Like the instant classic between Georgia and Alabama. We may get another game like that with Ohio State and Oregon in Week 7, but we just don’t have it this week.

What we do have are some Power Ratings updates. Remember that it’s a three-step process for me each week. Compare my line to the closing line. Check the box score. Look for injuries – which is hard to do with the way teams don’t really announce much on Sundays.

But the box score stuff is really important in my mind. I have a few examples to share and then we’ll get into the Power Ratings and this week’s lines.

Indiana won 42-28 over Maryland and was -4 in TO margin. That was a beating that got covered up a bit by the turnover issue.

NC State played to “expectation” against Northern Illinois as a seven-point favorite that won by seven, but they had just 176 yards in that game.

Rice had zero turnovers, 6.6 yards per play, and only scored 20 points in the 21-20 loss to Charlotte

Clemson had two one-play, 34-yard TD drives and a two-play, 43-yard TD drive against Stanford, a Cardinal team that had major travel issues getting to Greenville

By paying attention to some of these, you may get some early-week line value by fading the benefactors of misleading or “hidden” numbers. You’ll also typically see line moves as a result of these types of things.

Here are my Week 6 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	93	3
2	Ohio State	93	3.5
3	Texas	92	3.5
4	Alabama	90	3.5
5	Tennessee	89	3.5
6	Oregon	87.5	3.5
7	Clemson	85	3
8	Mississippi	85	3.5
9	Miami (Florida)	84	2
10	Penn State	84	3.5
11	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
12	USC	82	2
13	LSU	81	3.5
14	Iowa State	80.5	2
15	Louisville	80.5	3.5
16	Texas A&M	79.5	3
17	Indiana	79	1.5
18	Utah	78	3.5
19	Kansas State	77.5	3.5
20	Iowa	77	2.5
21	Missouri	77	2
22	Nebraska	76.5	2
23	Michigan	76	3.5
24	Arizona	75.5	2
25	Boise State	75.5	2.5
26	Oklahoma	75.5	3.5
27	Kentucky	75	2.5
28	Arkansas	74.5	2
29	Pittsburgh	74.5	2
30	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
31	Washington	73.5	2
32	Georgia Tech	73	1
33	Oklahoma State	73	3.5
34	South Carolina	72.5	2.5
35	Auburn	72	2
36	UCF	72	3
37	BYU	71.5	2
38	Tulane	71.5	2
39	West Virginia	71.5	3
40	Florida	71	2
41	SMU	71	3.5
42	California	70.5	2
43	Colorado	70.5	2
44	Rutgers	70.5	2
45	TCU	70.5	2.5
46	Kansas	70	2
47	Texas Tech	70	2.5
48	UNLV	70	2
49	Wisconsin	70	2
50	Minnesota	69.5	2
51	Illinois	69	2
52	Maryland	69	2
53	Cincinnati	68.5	2
54	Memphis	68.5	2
55	Boston College	68	1.5
56	Arizona State	67.5	2
57	Michigan State	67.5	2.5
58	Virginia	67.5	2
59	Baylor	67	2
60	Florida State	67	2
61	Washington State	67	2.5
62	Fresno State	66.5	2.5
63	Louisiana-Lafayette	66.5	3
64	Syracuse	66.5	2.5
65	Navy	66	2
66	North Carolina	66	2.5
67	Oregon State	66	3.5
68	Bowling Green	64.5	2
69	Texas State	64.5	2
70	James Madison	64	3.5
71	Liberty	63.5	3
72	South Florida	63.5	2
73	Stanford	63.5	1
74	Duke	63	3
75	Wake Forest	63	2.5
76	Toledo	62.5	2.5
77	UCLA	62.5	2
78	Northwestern	62	1.5
79	South Alabama	62	2.5
80	Army	61.5	2
81	Purdue	61.5	2
82	Appalachian State	59.5	2.5
83	East Carolina	59.5	2
84	Houston	59.5	2
85	North Texas	59.5	2
86	San Jose State	59.5	2
87	Miami (Ohio)	59	3
88	UTSA	59	3.5
89	Vanderbilt	59	1
90	Mississippi State	58.5	2
91	Old Dominion	58.5	2
92	Sam Houston State	58.5	2
93	Western Kentucky	58.5	2.5
94	Coastal Carolina	58	2.5
95	Northern Illinois	58	1.5
96	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
97	Jacksonville State	57.5	2.5
98	Marshall	57	2
99	North Carolina State	57	3.5
100	Connecticut	56.5	2
101	Nevada	56.5	1.5
102	Arkansas State	56	2
103	UAB	55	2.5
104	Western Michigan	55	2
105	Georgia State	54	2
106	Ohio	53	2
107	Colorado State	52	1
108	Eastern Michigan	52	2
109	Hawai’i	52	2
110	Air Force	51	2.5
111	New Mexico	51	1
112	Tulsa	51	1
113	Utah State	51	2
114	Rice	49.5	2
115	Wyoming	49.5	2.5
116	Louisiana-Monroe	49	2
117	San Diego State	49	2
118	Troy	49	2.5
119	Central Michigan	48.5	2
120	Buffalo	48	1
121	Florida Atlantic	47.5	2
122	Southern Mississippi	47.5	2
123	Charlotte	46.5	1
124	Massachusetts	46.5	1
125	Louisiana Tech	46	2
126	Temple	46	2
127	Akron	44.5	1
128	UTEP	44.5	2
129	Ball State	44	2
130	Florida International	44	1
131	Middle Tennessee	43.5	2
132	Kennesaw State	41	2
133	New Mexico State	40.5	2.5
134	Kent State	35.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Army +3, Virginia Tech +2, Washington +2.5, Nebraska +2, Kentucky +3, Navy +6, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Clemson +1.5, Central Michigan +2, James Madison +3, North Carolina +1.5, Indiana +3, UConn +5, UMass +1, Colorado +2.5, Old Dominion +2.5, SMU +1.5, Cincinnati +1.5, Tulane +1.5, Arizona +1.5, Texas State +1.5, Iowa State +2.5, Charlotte +1.5, North Texas +2.5, UNLV +1.5, Alabama +1, New Mexico +2, Boise State +2, Washington State +1, Louisiana +2, Jacksonville State +2.5, 

Down: Miami (FL) -2, Rutgers -2.5, Northern Illinois -1, Buffalo -2, Boston College -2, Purdue -1.5, Ole Miss -2.5, Oklahoma State -1.5, UAB -3, Kent State -1.5, San Diego State -4, Ball State -3, Buffalo -1.5, Miami (OH) -3, UCF -4, Florida State -2.5, Texas Tech -1.5, Kansas -1.5, South Florida -2.5, Utah -1.5, Memphis -1.5, BYU -1.5, Baylor -1.5, Houston -1.5, Rice -4, UCLA -3.5, Louisiana Tech -2, Georgia -2.5, New Mexico State -4, Air Force -2, Kennesaw State -2, Oklahoma -2, NC State -2.5, Tulsa -2, Troy -2

Injury: Boston College -4 (Castellanos)*

* – if out

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Navy +6: Another big bump, as promised, for the Middies. Even though my PR didn’t call for it, I took them against UAB and they rolled with ease. I don’t even know if four points is enough. By the way, speaking of box scores, Navy ran for 227 and threw for 225. It is extremely rare to see those two numbers almost identical. This is a completely different team.

UConn +5: The Huskies pummeled Buffalo a week after destroying Florida Atlantic. They’re really playing well on offense right now.

Army +3: Another bump for a service academy. Army hammered Temple on Thursday night and their run game is in tip-top shape.

James Madison +3: The Dukes followed up their 70 burger against UNC with a 60 burger against Ball State. Alonza Barrett is steering that ship in a big way.

Kentucky +3: The ‘Cats went into Oxford and beat Ole Miss. Remember, they nearly beat Georgia earlier this year. I don’t really know how good this team is, mainly because of Brock Vandagriff and the offense, but the defense is once again very legit.

Indiana +3: Another week, another resounding win for Curt Cignetti. They’re probably 10-0 when they go to Columbus on November 23 off of a bye with Ohio State looking ahead to Michigan.

UCF -4: I don’t think the box score made the performance against Colorado look as bad as the final score, but that should have been a good spot for the Knights and they failed. By the way, Colorado, who I bumped 2.5 points, seems to like life in the Big 12. I think we didn’t realize how exceptional the Pac-12 was last season.

San Diego State -4: This is a market correction and also an adjustment to an awful team. The Aztecs stink under Sean Lewis and the farther we get from that random year at Kent State, the more I wonder if the one-time wunderkind was all bark and no bite.

New Mexico State -4: Big market correction here. My line was 2 in the New Mexico vs. New Mexico State game. If we ran it back now, it would be 8, still below where it closed, but a lot closer.

Rice -4: Market correction here as well. I’ve realized that I haven’t had a good Charlotte line at any point this season, but this one was off by a lot, especially with the result.

UCLA -3.5: Holy hell, this team is terrible. And the Big Ten is going to eat them alive.

Ball State -3: Market correction; thanks for the cover against CMU, though, boys! After that JMU showing this week, I can’t see myself betting them again.
UAB -3: Market correction, although I think my Navy power rating was just egregiously wrong. Hell, it still might be, even with a six-point bump.

Here are my Week 6 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/3	Texas State	Troy	+13
	Sam Houston State	UTEP	+12
10/4	Jacksonville State	Kennesaw State	+9.5
	Houston	TCU	-13.5
	Michigan State	Oregon	-23.5
	Syracuse	UNLV	-5.5
10/5	Pitt	North Carolina	+6
	UCF	Florida	-1
	East Carolina	Charlotte	+12
	SMU	Louisville	-13
	Auburn	Georgia	-24
	Tulane	UAB	+14
	Clemson	Florida State	+16
	Mississippi	South Carolina	+10
	Old Dominion	Coastal Carolina	-2
	Western Michigan	Ball State	+9
	Wake Forest	NC State	+2.5
	Miami (OH)	Toledo	-6
	App State	Marshall	+0.5
	Duke	Georgia Tech	-11
	Bowling Green	Akron	+19
	Boston College	Virginia	-1.5
	UMass	Northern Illinois	-13
	Navy	Air Force	+12.5
	Alabama	Vanderbilt	+30
	Indiana	Northwestern	+15.5
	Utah State	Boise State	-27
	Kansas	Arizona State	+0.5
	Miami (FL)	Cal	+11.5
	Nevada	San Jose State	-5
	Virginia Tech	Stanford	+9
	Texas Tech	Arizona	-7.5
	Tennessee	Arkansas	+12.5
	Army	Tulsa	+9.5
	Baylor	Iowa State	-15.5
	West Virginia	Oklahoma State	-5
	Temple	UConn	-12.5
	Missouri	Texas A&M	-5.5
	James Madison	UL Monroe	+13
	Louisiana	Southern Miss	+17
	Rutgers	Nebraska	-8
	South Alabama	Arkansas State	+4
	USC	Minnesota	+10.5
	Michigan	Washington	+0.5
	Iowa	Ohio State	-19.5
	Colorado State	Oregon State	-17.5
	Hawaii	San Diego State	+1
	UCLA	Penn State	-25
	Purdue	Wisconsin	-10.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Pitt -2.5 (-6) at North Carolina: I have loved what I’ve seen from Pitt’s offense this season and I genuinely think they’re undervalued by the market.

East Carolina -8 (-12) at Charlotte: As I mentioned, my Charlotte power rating hasn’t been right all season, but I also think the market has severely overvalued this team.

Louisville -6.5 (-13) vs. SMU: Maybe the Mustangs have indeed figured it out, but I had my Louisville/Notre Dame line dead on last week and I really don’t find SMU to be a very good team.

Wake Forest -2.5 (+5) vs. NC State: I’m sorry, but I think NC State is a really, really bad football team. Not that Wake Forest has many redeeming qualities, but they’ve been way more consistent on offense.
Alabama -24 (-30) at Vanderbilt: Vandy has no home-field advantage and Alabama has extra incentive to blow teams out now with where Jalen Milroe’s Heisman hopes have gone.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.