Week 6 College Football Predictions
I’m not sure how we’re already onto Week 6 of the college football season, but we’ve blinked and somehow here we are. We’re starting to get an idea of how good some teams are, and other teams are still as confusing as ever – looking at you, Florida State. I can tell you, running the several (10+) formulas that I run weighing different metrics (points per play, yards per play, success rate, etc.) Ohio State is the clear #1 team in the country in opponent-adjusted metrics. We’re ramping up conference play so we will continue to find out who is for real and who has us fooled thus far, so let’s get to the Week 6 slate to see where TSI has identified some betting value on this Monday morning.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Oregon State (-1.5) vs. Appalachian State, O/U 54.5
The Beavers are winless so far this season, 0-5, after playing a pretty decent schedule with an average opponent power rating of 6.4 (points above average), while App State is 2-2, having played a schedule with an average opponent power rating of -5. Oregon State is now a 1.5-point (2.5 at some spots) favorite after opening as a 1.5-point underdog. So why the line move towards a winless team to now be laying points? TSI projects Oregon State -2.5, and the Beavers are projected to win by even more when looking at these individual metrics’ formulas: points per play, red zone scoring, touchdown %, success rate, and explosiveness %, all opponent-adjusted and averaging a projection of -7. So it’s essentially a unanimous call here that the Beavers are the side, and I’d play them at -3 or better.
Week 6 College Football Pick: Oregon State -3 or better
U Conn (-8.5) vs. FIU, O/U 54.5
This line has already come down from 10.5 at some spots, indicating a heavy appetite for the Panthers of FIU here. U Conn is 3-2 on the year but barely beat bad Buffalo and Ball State teams, plus FCS Central Connecticut, while losing to the two teams they played that had a pulse, Delaware and Syracuse. Not that FIU has been world-beaters, by any means, going just 2-2 but covering in three out of four games against an average opponent power rating of 2.8, compared to U Conn’s -12.6. I think this is a spot where the schedule disparity will show that the power ratings are underrating the Huskies due to the preseason expectation still being baked in. TSI is in line with the market at 8.5, but looking at how the numbers are trending, I’d make FIU a 3.5-point favorite using only the on-field data, so I think we’re getting a steal here north of a touchdown.
Week 6 College Football Pick: FIU +7.5 or better
For more Week 6 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 6 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
