Week 7 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

When something in life stinks, think of the adversity Andy Dufresne faced. In The Shawshank Redemption, Dufresne (played by Tim Robbins) escaped from prison by swimming hundreds of yards through a sewage pipe. He beat long odds and overcame the foulest situation imaginable, eventually making his way to the beach in Zihuatanejo, Mexico. It’s always embarrassing to stink, as I did for the first few weeks of the college football season. My college football best bets handicapping was rotten, with a 4-10 record in the middle of September, and some social media critics doubted that I could escape the hole. It was fair to doubt that.

Suddenly, I’m out of the hole. With an 11-4 record the past three weeks, including 6-1 last week, I’m above .500 for the first time this season. California, Minnesota, San Diego State, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt and Washington were last week’s winners.

 

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But mid-October is no time to hit the beach and throw a party for being above water. I plan to continue to win and leave the stench behind with these seven best bets for Saturday:

Texas (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma

Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Quinn Ewers, who has been out since suffering an oblique injury on Sept. 14, will return as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback. Arch Manning played well in Ewers’ absence, but the opposition (UTSA, UL Monroe and Mississippi State) was weak. Texas has one impressive win, 31-12 at Michigan on Sept. 7, and the truth is the Wolverines are not that good.

Oklahoma is not exactly a powerhouse. Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is still a mystery, and the team is missing five injured receivers, which is a major concern. Hawkins passed for 161 yards and ran for 69 yards and a touchdown in his first start, a 27-21 win at Auburn two weeks ago. The strength of the Sooners is their defense, which is allowing 16 ppg.

Four teams ranked in the Top 10 — #1 Alabama, #4 Tennessee, #9 Missouri and #10 Michigan — fell last Saturday, and #8 Miami was lucky to avoid joining the crowd. All five of those teams were playing on the road. This week’s new top-ranked team, Texas, is facing Oklahoma on a neutral field in Dallas. The Sooners are 7-3 with only one loss by more than seven points in their past 10 meetings with the Longhorns. I expected this line to move to 15 or higher, but it’s trending toward 14.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Oklahoma +14.5

Ohio State (-3.5) at Oregon

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Buckeyes (5-0) have yet to be tested by an above-average offense after defeating Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State and Iowa. In fact, Ohio State has been a slow starter in four of its five games and led the Hawkeyes 7-0 at halftime last week. The Ducks have looked sloppy too often while underachieving (1-4 ATS), but Dillon Gabriel is a quarterback to trust in big games. Gabriel has completed 77.8 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, and a year ago at this time, he led Oklahoma on a game-winning drive against Texas. I’ll take the #3-ranked team on a strong home field, getting more than a field goal.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Oregon +3.5

Washington at Iowa (-2.5)

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

A week ago, Washington was my top play and the Huskies were able to get a tough win against Michigan. Fans stormed the field to celebrate, which usually means an emotional letdown and hangover the next week. A trip to Iowa City is never easy or pretty. No team is better than Iowa at grinding out ugly games. The Hawkeyes are rock solid defensively and feature running back Kaleb Johnson, the Big Ten leader with 771 yards on the ground. Washington’s edge is at quarterback with Will Rogers. He has 12 touchdown passes and one interception. I’ll bank on the better defense, but this is a moneyline bet because Iowa can’t be trusted to win by much of a margin.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Iowa -140

Penn State (-4) at USC

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

The betting market has downgraded USC a little too much after it dropped Big Ten games at Michigan and Minnesota that went to the wire. The Trojans are loaded with offensive talent — quarterback Miller Moss, running back Woody Marks and receivers Ja’Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch — and their defense is improving. It was troubling to see Penn State rush for only 85 yards in a sluggish victory over UCLA a week ago. This will be the Nittany Lions’ toughest test yet. USC is a live home ‘dog with the better coach in Lincoln Riley. I bet this at +5.5, and it’s not a surprise to see the number dropping.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: USC +4

Mississippi (-3.5) at LSU

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

With the Rebels playing back-to-back road games, after beating South Carolina a week ago, the situational signs point to the home underdog. LSU had a bye, allowing coach Brian Kelly more time to prep for this game. Ole Miss has the superior defense. Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier won’t make anyone forget Jayden Daniels, but Nussmeier is doing well operating Kelly’s offense and has completed 69.7 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns while taking only two sacks in five games. Aside from games against Alabama, LSU has won seven of its past nine as a home ‘dog.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: LSU +3.5

Minnesota (-4.5) at UCLA

Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET

It’s obvious the Bruins have looked really bad in a few games. It’s also true that UCLA was surprisingly competitive in road losses to LSU and Penn State, and the Bruins’ run defense held up well against the Nittany Lions. The biggest key to this matchup will be slowing the Gophers’ running attack. Another key will be the Bruins getting competent quarterback play, and they could use veteran Ethan Garbers and sophomore Justyn Martin, who completed 22 of 30 passes against Penn State. Garbers is trying to return from an ankle injury, but Martin might be the better option anyway. The traditional Big Ten teams lack an impressive track record on the West Coast, and I’m playing that trend this week with league newcomers Oregon, USC and UCLA as home ‘dogs.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: UCLA +4.5

Boise State (-21) at Hawaii

Saturday, 11:00 p.m. ET

Is it possible a running back can win the Heisman Trophy? Yes. It’s not likely, however. The Broncos’ Ashton Jeanty leads the nation with 1,031 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, topping 180 yards in four of five games. The Warriors’ run defense has been respectable. Boise’s defense displayed a few cracks last week while allowing 507 total yards, including 372 through the air, to Utah State. One thing Hawaii does well is throw the ball with senior quarterback Brayden Schager. This should be a shootout, and the line is inflated enough to get me on the late-night ‘dog in Honolulu.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Hawaii +21

Last week: 6-1 against the spread

For more Week 7 college football analysis, visit the Week 7 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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