Week 7 College Football
Welcome to the Week 7 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my T Shoe Index, a proprietary college football model, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models align and disagree on the CFB schedule. This analysis helps pinpoint where there are betting opportunities on model alignment, and where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 7 College Football Model Alignment:
Model Consensus
USC (-2.5) vs Michigan, O/U 57.5
I think a lot of people were probably shocked to see “unranked” USC as a short home favorite against top-15 Michigan this week; however, despite the talking heads calling this a “trap line” or saying it “smells fishy”, there is, as always, a quantitative reason for the line.
Our model average projection is USC -3.9, with a variance of just 1.9 points. FPI is the strongest on the Trojans, projecting USC -4.9, while SP+ is the lowest projecting but still calls for a cover at USC -3. TSI and Sagarin project -3.5 and -4.2, respectively. I’d expect Michigan to be a heavy public side here and the Trojans to be a “book need” this week.
College Football Pick: USC -2.5
Texas A&M (-7.5) vs Florida, O/U 46.5
This is a game I mentally had circled to look at when lines opened this week with Florida riding high off of the Texas win and Billy Napier’s job secure for at least another week. Texas A&M has been excellent this season so far, including beating top-5 power rated team, Notre Dame.
The model average projection here is A&M -9.1, with variance of just 3.6 points. FPI is the only model not calling for an Aggies cover at -6.6, but the other three models agree this should likely be a double-digit win for Mike Elko’s team. I love the spot here for A&M and the numbers agree that they are the side at this price.
College Football Pick: Texas A&M -7.
Model Disagreement
San Diego State (-7.5) vs Nevada, O/U 41.5
The models are completely split on this game, as San Diego State has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde, though overall I think they’re still just much better than preseason projections indicated they’d be, and they’ve shown an ability to win in slow, rock-fight type games and also games in the 70s.
The model average projection on this game is SDSU -12.1, but a variance of 14.5. FPI and Sagarin both indicate this could be closer than a touchdown, while TSI and SP+ both project a 2+ touchdown win for the Aztecs. Two models on each side of the number here, so I think it’s wise to pass.
Oklahoma vs Texas (-1.5), O/U 43.5
Show me your projection on this game and I’ll show you how much weight you still have on preseason priors (not that that’s a bad thing, there is just a clear dichotomy). Texas has found themselves going from preseason #1 in the country to unranked in the AP poll in a month; however, the oddsmakers’ power ratings still clearly hold Texas in high regard as they are favored on a neutral site over Oklahoma, who has indisputably played better than Texas this season.
The huge question here is whether or not OU QB John Mateer will play after having surgery on his hand. The model average projection is Oklahoma -2.6, with a variance of 10.5 points. FPI and Sagarin both still favor the Longhorns (knowing these models don’t adjust for injury, this tells me they still weigh preseason priors quite heavily), while TSI and SP+ both indicate Oklahoma should be a touchdown+ favorite here.
So the two questions you have to answer when handicapping this game are: 1. Will Mateer play, and if not, how much is he worth? And 2. Is that preseason juggernaut Texas still inside that locker room somewhere? This is probably a stay away for me but it would be Oklahoma or nothing based on what I’ve seen this season.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.