Week 7 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 7 College Football

Week 7. The college football regular season will be halfway over at the end of this week, if we consider conference championship games an extension of it. It is wild to see how quickly the season is flying by, but it also means that we’ve had a lot to digest in a relatively short amount of time. This week, we start getting Wednesday night games, too, so the breaks without CFB are starting to get smaller. But, my Week 7 college football power ratings are updated and I’m ready for the task at hand.

We had our first couple of really noteworthy weather games this past weekend, as UNLV/Wyoming had everything Mother Nature could throw at it, including a field covered in hail, and we saw a good bit of wind in Lincoln between Michigan State and Nebraska. Just keep in mind the impacts that weather can have on the gameplan, the play selection, and, obviously, turnovers.

For example, it really struck me how poor UNLV was on offense, as they scored touchdowns on two blocked punts in the 31-17 win. Anthony Colandrea, who transferred in from Virginia, didn’t seem terribly fond of the cold, as he was 11-of-20 for 102 yards, easily his lowest completion rate and yardage output of the season. The Rebels still have road games at Boise State (Oct. 18), Colorado State (Nov. 8) and Nevada (Nov. 29), so that’s something I’ll keep in mind, but not necessarily alter my power ratings for.

That’s just one of many reasons why my college football power ratings aren’t gospel. They’re a factor and a means of trying to get ahead of some line moves and grab some line equity early in the week. They can’t account for everything. Nothing can account for everything. But, you prep and you do the best you can to make smart, expected value wagers and hope that the games work out in your favor.

For example, I really liked Oregon State last week at App State. I knew the travel would be a factor, and the Beavers did fall behind 17-0 on a fumbled kickoff return, a broken coverage, and a missed field goal. But, they did outgain App State by 102 yards; they were just -4 in turnovers with a key interception and a turnover on downs in the fourth quarter. Right handicap, wrong result. Those things will happen, but you still have to adjust and I absolutely did adjust the Beavers.

Week 7 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	92.5	3.5
2	Oregon	90.5	3.5
3	Alabama	89.5	3.5
4	Georgia	86.5	3
5	Miami (Florida)	86.5	2
6	Indiana	85.5	2.5
7	Texas A&M	85.5	2
8	Texas Tech	84	3
9	Texas	83.5	3.5
10	Mississippi	83	3
11	Missouri	83	3.5
12	Penn State	83	3.5
13	Notre Dame	82.5	3
14	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
15	Oklahoma	82	3
16	LSU	81.5	3.5
17	Arizona State	81	2
18	USC	81	3
19	Michigan	80.5	3
20	Utah	80.5	3
21	Auburn	79.5	2
22	Vanderbilt	79.5	1.5
23	Florida State	78.5	2
24	TCU	78.5	3
25	BYU	77.5	2
26	Florida	77	2
27	Nebraska	76	2
28	Iowa	75.5	3
29	Clemson	75	2.5
30	Washington	74.5	3.5
31	Cincinnati	74	1.5
32	Georgia Tech	74	2
33	Iowa State	74	2
34	South Carolina	74	2.5
35	Louisville	73.5	3.5
36	Mississippi State	73	2
37	SMU	72.5	3.5
38	Baylor	71.5	2
39	Kansas	71.5	2.5
40	Memphis	71.5	2.5
41	Arizona	71	2
42	Arkansas	71	2
43	Illinois	71	2
44	Minnesota	71	2
45	Duke	70.5	3.5
46	Virginia	70.5	2
47	Pittsburgh	70	2
48	Rutgers	70	2
49	South Florida	70	1.5
50	Boise State	69	3.5
51	Colorado	68	2
52	Houston	68	2
53	Kentucky	68	2
54	North Carolina State	68	2
55	Tulane	68	2.5
56	Kansas State	67.5	3.5
57	Wisconsin	67.5	2
58	James Madison	67	3
59	Maryland	67	2
60	Michigan State	66.5	2
61	Navy	66	2
62	Old Dominion	65.5	1.5
63	North Texas	65	2
64	Texas State	64.5	2
65	UCF	64.5	2
66	Wake Forest	64	2
67	Virginia Tech	63.5	2
68	California	63	2
69	East Carolina	63	2
70	Boston College	62.5	2
71	Toledo	62.5	3
72	Northwestern	62	1.5
73	Purdue	61	1
74	Utah State	60.5	2
75	Fresno State	60	2
76	Syracuse	60	2.5
77	UNLV	60	2.5
78	Hawai’i	58.5	2
79	San Diego State	58.5	2
80	UCLA	58.5	2
81	West Virginia	58.5	2
82	Air Force	58	2
83	Miami (Ohio)	58	2.5
84	Southern Mississippi	58	2
85	Army	57.5	2.5
86	Connecticut	56.5	2.5
87	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
88	New Mexico	56.5	2
89	Ohio	56.5	3.5
90	Bowling Green	56	2
91	UTSA	56	3.5
92	North Carolina	55.5	2
93	San Jose State	55.5	2.5
94	Western Kentucky	55.5	2.5
95	Delaware	53.5	3
96	Georgia Southern	53.5	3.5
97	Jacksonville State	53.5	3.5
98	South Alabama	53.5	2
99	Temple	53.5	2
100	Wyoming	53.5	2
101	Stanford	53	1
102	Oregon State	52.5	3.5
103	Tulsa	52.5	1
104	Rice	52	3
105	Buffalo	51.5	2
106	Central Michigan	51.5	2
107	Troy	51.5	3
108	Washington State	51.5	3
109	Colorado State	51	2
110	Florida International	51	2
111	Northern Illinois	51	1
112	Oklahoma State	50.5	2
113	Western Michigan	50.5	2
114	Florida Atlantic	50	2
115	UTEP	50	2
116	Appalachian State	49.5	2
117	Arkansas State	49.5	2
118	Louisiana-Monroe	49.5	2
119	Louisiana-Lafayette	49	2
120	Georgia State	48	1
121	Liberty	48	3
122	Marshall	48	3
123	UAB	47.5	2.5
124	Kennesaw State	47	1.5
125	Nevada	47	1
126	Eastern Michigan	46.5	2
127	Coastal Carolina	45	2
128	Missouri State	44.5	2
129	Charlotte	43.5	1
130	Sam Houston State	43	0.5
131	Akron	42.5	2
132	New Mexico State	42.5	2.5
133	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
134	Ball State	39.5	2.5
135	Kent State	39	1
136	Massachusetts	36.5	1

Here are my Week 7 power ratings adjustments:

Up: San Jose State +1.5, San Diego State +2.5, Old Dominion +3, Kentucky +1, Cincinnati +2, Maryland +3, Ohio State +2.5, Pitt +1.5, Wake Forest +3.5, Akron +1.5, Ball State +1.5, Western Michigan +1.5, Memphis +4.5, Nebraska +1, Miami (OH) +2, Arizona +2.5, Duke +1.5, UCLA +2.5, Purdue +3, Texas Tech +1.5, TCU +1.5, Notre Dame +1.5, Texas A&M +1.5, BYU +2, Florida State +1.5, Alabama +1, Temple +1, Wyoming +1, Southern Miss +2.5, Louisiana +1.5, Northwestern +1, Clemson +1, Toledo +2, Stanford +1.5

Down: Charlotte -1.5, Oregon State -4.5, Air Force -2, Coastal Carolina -2.5, Georgia -1.5, UTSA -2.5, Washington -1, North Carolina -3.5, Boston College -4, Virginia Tech -2, Ohio -4, UMass -3, Louisiana Monroe -2.5, Michigan State -1.5, Oklahoma State -2.5, Cal -2.5, Penn State -5.5, Illinois -2, Rice -2.5, Houston -2.5, Colorado -1.5, Baylor -1.5, Fresno State -2, West Virginia -1.5, Wisconsin -1, Army -2.5, UNLV -1, Georgia Southern -2, James Madison -2, Bowling Green -2, SMU -1.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Memphis +4.5: Well, I caved. It seems that Ryan Silverfield and his staff have really done a tremendous job turning Brendon Lewis into a better QB. He’s easily on track for career-highs in passing and rushing yards and the Tigers control their own destiny for a CFP spot. That FedEx money is helping.

Wake Forest +3.5: This is firmly a play-on team for me and that’s true this week against Oregon State. Now that Jake Dickert’s team had some time to catch its breath and figure out a new roster and new schemes, they’ve nearly beaten Georgia Tech and did beat Virginia Tech on the road. They were easily the better team in that 30-23 win over the Hokies.

Purdue +3, Maryland +3: A couple market adjustments here this week with both Purdue and Maryland. These are mostly based on what we’ve seen offensively from them. I’ve had short numbers on both recently and wanted to rectify that.

Old Dominion +3: Ricky Rahne’s offense is doing some serious work down in the Sun Belt. I’ve gradually been moving them forward in my power ratings. We’ll see if I get a reason to stop soon.

Penn State -5.5: Losing to UCLA and giving up 43 points to the Bruins is a terrrrrrrrrrible look. I really don’t like Drew Allar, but you know what else stands out? Penn State only has 4.8 yards per carry against four FBS opponents and 4.5 yards per carry in two Power Four games. Teams are simply daring the Nittany Lions to beat them through the air and they aren’t.

Oregon State -4.5: The aforementioned adjustment to the Beavers. Maalik Murphy puts the ball in harm’s way a lot. This team isn’t playing for anything now except not going 0-12 because at 0-6, they’re not making a bowl game. 

Boston College -4: I thought that I had made good adjustments to Boston College, even being ahead of the market at times, but I was behind the market as I started putting my numbers together for this week, so I made another big move. If Dylan Lonergan is going to be benched going forward like he was on Saturday, this team is even worse than where I have them.

Ohio -4: I was resistant to move Ohio down, but the time has come. You simply cannot lose to Ball State. I’ll drop them by this same amount again if they look like dung after the bye.

North Carolina -3.5: An expensive lesson is being learned in Chapel Hill this season. Bill Belichick’s team is a disaster.

My Week 7 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/8	Missouri State	Middle Tennessee	+1
	Liberty	UTEP	-4
10/9	Louisiana Tech	Kennesaw State	+8
	Southern Miss	Georgia Southern	+1
	Jacksonville State	Sam Houston	+10
	East Carolina	Tulane	-7.5
10/10	South Florida	North Texas	+3
	Fresno State	Colorado State	+7
	Rutgers	Washington	-8
10/11	UMass	Kent State	-3.5
	Navy	Temple	+10.5
	UCF	Cincinnati	-11
	UAB	FAU	-4.5
	Charlotte	Army	-16.5
	Louisiana	James Madison	-21
	Old Dominion	Marshall	+14.5
	App State	Georgia State	+0.5
	Northwestern	Penn State	-24.5
	Clemson	Boston College	+10.5
	Pitt	Florida State	-10.5
	Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	-12.5
	Iowa	Wisconsin	+6
	UCLA	Michigan State	-10
	Louisiana Monroe	Coastal Carolina	+2.5
	Miami (OH)	Akron	+13.5
	Toledo	Bowling Green	+4.5
	Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	+2.5
	Kansas	Texas Tech	-15.5
	Ball State	Western Michigan	-13
	Alabama	Missouri	+3
	Washington State	Mississippi	-34.5
	Iowa State	Colorado	+4
	Arizona State	Utah	-2.5
	New Mexico	Boise State	-16
	Michigan	USC	-3.5
	BYU	Arizona	+4.5
	Troy	Texas State	-15
	Arkansas	Tennessee	-15
	Florida	Texas A&M	-10.5
	South Carolina	LSU	-11
	Ohio State	Illinois	+19.5
	Stanford	SMU	-23
	Nebraska	Maryland	+7
	Houston	Oklahoma State	+15.5
	Rice	UTSA	-7.5
	TCU	Kansas State	+7.5
	NC State	Notre Dame	-17.5
	Indiana	Oregon	-8.5
	Wake Forest	Oregon State	+8
	Oklahoma (w/ Mateer)	Texas (N – Dallas)	-1.5
	Air Force	UNLV	-4.5
	Utah State	Hawaii	PK
	San Jose State	Wyoming	PK
	Purdue	Minnesota	-12
	Georgia	Auburn	+5
	San Diego State	Nevada	+10.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

UTEP +2 (-4) vs. Liberty: The Flames are playing in a little elevation in El Paso on Wednesday night. I’m not sure this team cares much anymore and Ethan Vasko has been awful running Jamey Chadwell’s offense, even though he was with him at Coastal Carolina.

South Florida +1.5 (-3) at North Texas: I really do like this Mean Green team, but they’ve played the 115th-ranked strength of schedule per Sagarin. South Florida has played the 39th. Prove it to me this week, UNT.

Bowling Green +8 (+4.5) vs. Toledo: I guess Toledo’s performances are aging pretty well, but I think Bowling Green has been better than I expected so far this season. I made some adjustments to both teams to get this line closer to market and still couldn’t get this high.

Arizona State +5.5 (+2.5) at Utah: I guess Utah’s win over UCLA is aging fairly well, but nothing else they’ve done has been that impressive. Arizona State gritting out wins over Baylor and TCU has been.

Rice +13 (+7.5) at UTSA: I gave up on the Roadrunners a couple weeks ago. Rice is moving backwards, too, but their style of play is hard to blow out and UTSA has a one-point win over Colorado State and a six-point loss at Temple in their last two games.

TCU -1.5 (-7.5) at Kansas State: I have no idea how to rate Kansas State. I just know that I really don’t think that they are very good. This team has been a moving target for me and I know I’ve been high on TCU at times, and evidently here. Baylor had 444 yards and only had the ball for 22:13 this past weekend in their comeback win.

Wake Forest -2.5 (-8) at Oregon State: Not only are the Demon Deacons really impressive lately, but Dickert is very familiar with Oregon State, having coached at Wazzu the last few seasons.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.