Week 8 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 8 college football best bets:
Central Florida +7 vs. BYU
Last week, BYU upset No. 2 Notre Dame for the program’s biggest win at Lavell Edwards Stadium. Now the Cougars are No. 2 in the polls and look to be in great shape for the College Football Playoff. However, this is a long trip to Orlando and a tricky situation for BYU. Weather could also be a factor. Some showers are projected during the game, as well as wind gusts up to 30 mph. BYU already played in a weather game a couple weeks ago at TCU and only scored 17 points on 216 total yards.
The Cougars are also still without RB LJ Martin. QB Bear Bachmeier has done fine without him, and he accounted for four touchdowns last week vs. Notre Dame. He mentioned in the postgame how personal that game was to him, as he believed that he and his family were disrespected by Notre Dame in the recruiting process.
Meanwhile, UCF sits at just 3-3 but is off a bye week. The Knights also played a weather game at Pitt, losing 12-7 but covering as +7 underdogs.
The Knights covered at ranked Houston and led 17-0 before falling 27-17 and also trailed at ranked Oklahoma State by just 3 heading into the fourth quarter before losing 42-28. They have played good football at times but have not been able to put two halves together against the better competition.
James Madison transfer QB Alonza Barnett will still be out with a hamstring injury for UCF so FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins will make his fifth straight start. While he lost his start at Oklahoma State two weeks ago, Jenkins had his best game going 30-for-42 and throwing for 265 yards and four touchdowns.
The pressure is on BYU here, and teams do typically struggle after not only playing Notre Dame but beating them.
Keep in mind that the lookahead line before the Notre Dame game was actually BYU -8.5, and it re-opened -6.5 after beating Notre Dame? Things that make you go “Hmmmmm.”
Tennessee -125 ML vs. South Carolina
Tennessee is playing its eighth consecutive game and off an upset victory over Alabama. The Vols are firmly in the CFP chase, and now they are underdogs to a 3-3 South Carolina team?
Well, South Carolina is off a bye and, before the off week, played its best game of the season with a convincing 38-19 win at Florida. The Gamecocks shut down Florida’s elite running game and held the Gators to just 120 yards on 38 carries. Plus, QB Lanorris Sellers threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns and seems to be getting used to the new offense under OC Kendal Briles.
Tennessee QB George MacIntyre has done a better job of not taking sacks than Faizon Brandon did, but he is still not a big playmaker at that position. He is only averaging 5.3 yards aDOT (average depth of target) as the Vols are relying on the running game (217 ypg), but the Gamecocks are only giving up 103.7 on the ground. Projected first-round edge rusher Dylan Stewart returned in the Florida game after serving a one-game suspension for a fight at Alabama and made a big difference for the Gamecocks defense.
South Carolina can more than hold its own in the trenches on both sides of the ball here.
Minnesota +7 vs. Iowa
Iowa and Minnesota will play for the 92nd time (120th overall) for the Floyd of Rosedale bronze pig trophy.
Last year, Iowa crushed Minnesota 41-3. This is a bit of a similar situation to the Utah-Colorado game last week. Utah won last year 56-3 and were big favorites last week at Colorado, off a bye, but had to hang on for a 27-24 victory. Minnesota will certainly have that similar motivation to rectify an embarrassing loss and is also off a bye week.
The Gophers predictably let down after winning the Little Brown Jug vs. Michigan for the first time in 12 years. Minnesota was routed 41-13 at Purdue as PJ Fleck’s boat wasn’t rowing down the Wabash River in West Lafayette, but the Gophers now find themselves in their best point-spread role as a Big 10 home dog where they are 5-0 ATS in their last five, including that win over Michigan three weeks ago.
Iowa is also off its bye after the Hawkeyes’ most impressive performance of the season at Washington, where they won 41-24 and gained 465 yards. Granted, the Hawkeyes dominated that game, but they were +3 underdogs at Washington and now lay -7 on the road.
The price is a bit too rich for a rivalry game with a low total (40.5) and rain during the game.
BEST OF THE REST
Michigan State +15.5 at UCLA
The Bruins continue to roll in Bob Chesney’s first year, and a spot in the College Football Playoff looks even more realistic than ever with only one ranked team (season finale vs. USC) left on the schedule.
Now they get a Michigan State bunch off two close losses – a missed two-point conversion in OT vs. Illinois and a FG loss at the horn vs. Northwestern last week. However, Sparty is still fighting.
The line has gone up a bit with QB Alessio Milivojevic showing up questionable on the injury report. UCLA has been a cover machine (6-0 ATS), but they are starting to get priced accordingly.
Wisconsin +3 vs. USC
Last week Wisconsin was one of the quasi-sharp plays of the week at UCLA. Well, we were all sharp as marbles last week after the Badgers mustered just seven points and 214 yards of total offense.
Now the market is shying away from the Badgers after letting bettors down last week, but that’s the time when you want to come back with them when all hope looks lost.
Wisconsin has the better defense by over 60 ypg and around 8.5 ppg, and the two teams average about the same on the ground. Bucky Badger rebounds here.
Texas -150 ML vs. Ole Miss
Sark’s job could be in trouble. Arch could very well be benched. It’s been all negative this week for Texas after a home loss to what was a struggling Florida team coming into Austin last week.
Texas was -6.5 on the lookahead line and now we are seeing some juiced 3s in the market after the bad loss plus Ole Miss crushing Vandy and Mizzou over the last two weeks.
This is the buy at the bottom spot for Texas to save its season.
Vanderbilt +11 at Kentucky
After winning three straight games in come-from-behind fashion (all as underdogs), Kentucky lays a big number to a struggling Vanderbilt group who lost at home to Arkansas, who many SEC observers rate as the worst team in the conference.
Kentucky has a bye next week, but this could be a flat game for the Wildcats. They have also been living right with the three comeback victories and being +8 in turnover margin over the last three weeks.
North Dakota State/New Mexico Under 41
The winner of this game clinches a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game for all intents and purposes.
These are the No. 1 (New Mexico – 10.5 ppg) and No. 2 (North Dakota State – 11.1 ppg) scoring defenses in FBS.
Houston +7 -115 at Utah
The Utes still remain unbeaten after hanging on at Colorado, but they are a bit inflated having played a soft schedule consisting of Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, at Iowa State, Kansas, and at Colorado. Meanwhile, Houston has wins over Oregon State, who has won five games in a row by convincing margins, at Kansas State, and last week vs. a ranked Oklahoma State team. The Cougars’ only loss was by 2 at Texas Tech, where they missed the two-point conversion to tie at the end.
Houston’s offense ranks No. 2 in EPA/play and No. 1 in success rate. On defense, the Cougars rank No. 6 in rushing by only allowing 82.6 ypg. Utah QB Devon Dampier has thrown three INTs in the last two games, and Houston’s run defense will force him to throw a couple up for grabs this week.
The Cougars are also 8-3 ATS on the road in Big XII games under Willie Fritz.
Other bets will be posted throughout the weekend at VSiN.com/picks.
For more college football Week 8 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 8 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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