Effective College Football Play-by-Play Ratings for Week 8:
I’m publishing the full list of games for Week 8 in this week’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings article. However, I have an addition to this week’s analysis, as an intuitive question I received from an X follower raised my curiosity to look into a weakness of the “body of work” numbers as they stand each week. Therefore, for this week, you will see two Effective Play-by-Play theoretical lines, one based on full-season stats, and the other based on a forecast model I used to hopefully better capture how teams are trending.
By the way, looking back at last week’s full 59 games, we had one game with no edge, while the other games went 30-28 ATS. It came up shy of the 33-25 ATS from Week 6, but a winning record nonetheless. Hopefully, capturing the recent performance level will help boost the record this week.
The reader question I received asked me to explain how I could possibly validate Sam Houston State’s big 14-point edge this week. Here was my response:
1. This was an unfortunate casualty of using full-body-of-work stats. SHSU was VERY good in the first three games of the season, at least compared to who they played. They significantly outgained their first three opponents, two in big underdog roles. Just look at QB Landyn Locke’s game log stats as evidence. At the same time, WKU was awful in the first three games. At that point, this number would have been 30ish.
2. Since then, the momentum has completely swung the opposite way. SHSU has gotten clobbered in three straight games, while WKU has been pretty good.
3. The Effective Play-by-Play Ratings are one of five metrics I develop each week, each formed from a different set of principles. That was easily the biggest disparity. The other ones showed Power Rating WKU 4 points better, Effective Strength SHSU 7.8 better, Bettors Ratings WKU 2.7 better, Recent Ratings SHSU 0.5 better.
Of course, this came after Sam Houston State put up just three points in a 13-point loss to Western Kentucky.
Important note for this week’s projections … in terms of the “forecast model,” I don’t have ANY history for past performance of this new metric to go on. Therefore, this is experimental for all of us. I am simply sharing some of the “method to my madness” in how I develop ratings and analyze them. Thus, trust these numbers at your own discretion.
One other quick response to a reader who asked why I don’t share these numbers for the NFL, too … I DO have these numbers; however, because college football talent disparities can be so wide, it is more strength- and stat-based, while the NFL is more situational. Thus, I don’t think these metrics would be as valuable there.
As a quick reminder, these Effective Play-by-Play numbers are different from my Effective Strength Ratings in that they take into account a team’s performance for all the scrimmage plays they have in games, not just an encompassing gauge of the end result. Of course, both numbers are gauged against each team’s schedule played thus far. Some people prefer this method over power rating/scoring tabulations because the latter can easily be affected by fluky plays, turnovers, or fourth-down conversions, etc. Both have their value. Perhaps a combination of the various strength gauges is the best alternative. Personally, I think the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, because of the much larger data sample size, perhaps more accurately portray team strength, particularly in college football, where there can be huge disparities in talent from team to team. Note that all of the strength ratings I am describing are weighted against team schedules and reflect games in which latter parts were non-competitive. They also contain pertinent injury adjustments.
Again, here are the games in their usual fashion, ordered by the discrepancy between the full season Eff PxP line and the actual line. You will see that the added forecasted Eff PxP does differ, both by favored team and my disparity in most or all cases. In fact, if you’re looking for an example of a game in which the recency bias differs significantly from the body-of-work metric, take a look at the Iowa-Minnesota clash, the sixth game from the bottom of the list. The data shows that Iowa has clearly been a better team than Minnesota lately, while the full-season numbers show the Gophers with the slight edge.
(403) TEXAS A&M at (404) ALABAMA
Actual Line: ALABAMA -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ALABAMA -35.4
Difference: 21.4, Favors – ALABAMA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: ALABAMA -33.5
Difference: 19.5, Favors – ALABAMA
(341) PITTSBURGH at (342) MIAMI FL
Actual Line: MIAMI FL -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI FL -37.4
Difference: 16.9, Favors – MIAMI FL
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI FL -26.9
Difference: 6.4, Favors – MIAMI FL
(327) WEST VIRGINIA at (328) TCU
Actual Line: TCU -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TCU -24.7
Difference: 15.2, Favors – TCU
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TCU -21.7
Difference: 12.2, Favors – TCU
(343) TEXAS TECH at (344) CINCINNATI
Actual Line: CINCINNATI +10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CINCINNATI -3.7
Difference: 14.2, Favors – CINCINNATI
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: CINCINNATI -2.4
Difference: 12.9, Favors – CINCINNATI
(391) IOWA STATE at (392) ARIZONA
Actual Line: ARIZONA -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA -23.9
Difference: 13.9, Favors – ARIZONA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA -16.9
Difference: 6.9, Favors – ARIZONA
(365) BAYLOR at (366) KANSAS
Actual Line: KANSAS +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS -10.6
Difference: 13.6, Favors – KANSAS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS -7.7
Difference: 10.7, Favors – KANSAS
(363) USC at (364) WISCONSIN
Actual Line: WISCONSIN +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WISCONSIN -9.6
Difference: 12.6, Favors – WISCONSIN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: WISCONSIN -6.2
Difference: 9.2, Favors – WISCONSIN
(337) INDIANA at (338) MICHIGAN
Actual Line: MICHIGAN +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN +19
Difference: 12, Favors – INDIANA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN +14.6
Difference: 7.6, Favors – INDIANA
(395) OKLAHOMA at (396) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Actual Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE +4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE -7.5
Difference: 12, Favors – MISSISSIPPI STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE -12.7
Difference: 17.2, Favors – MISSISSIPPI STATE
(331) RICE at (332) FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Actual Line: FLORIDA ATLANTIC -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +4.2
Difference: 11.7, Favors – RICE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +5.3
Difference: 12.8, Favors – RICE
(357) RUTGERS at (358) NORTHWESTERN
Actual Line: NORTHWESTERN -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHWESTERN -27
Difference: 10.5, Favors – NORTHWESTERN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTHWESTERN -25.1
Difference: 8.6, Favors – NORTHWESTERN
(323) AIR FORCE at (324) WYOMING
Actual Line: WYOMING +4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WYOMING -5.6
Difference: 10.1, Favors – WYOMING
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: WYOMING -3.1
Difference: 7.6, Favors – WYOMING
(389) KANSAS STATE at (390) ARIZONA STATE
Actual Line: ARIZONA STATE +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA STATE -6.4
Difference: 9.9, Favors – ARIZONA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA STATE -1.3
Difference: 4.8, Favors – ARIZONA STATE
(387) MICHIGAN STATE at (388) UCLA
Actual Line: UCLA -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCLA -23.6
Difference: 9.6, Favors – UCLA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UCLA -23.8
Difference: 9.8, Favors – UCLA
(401) OLD DOMINION at (402) LOUISIANA TECH
Actual Line: LOUISIANA TECH -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA TECH -22.1
Difference: 9.6, Favors – LOUISIANA TECH
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA TECH -15.4
Difference: 2.9, Favors – LOUISIANA TECH
(319) DUKE at (320) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA +7.7
Difference: 9.2, Favors – DUKE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA +5
Difference: 6.5, Favors – DUKE
(373) LOUISIANA at (374) SOUTHERN MISS
Actual Line: SOUTHERN MISS +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTHERN MISS +0.8
Difference: 9.2, Favors – SOUTHERN MISS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SOUTHERN MISS +4.5
Difference: 5.5, Favors – SOUTHERN MISS
(379) OREGON at (380) ILLINOIS
Actual Line: ILLINOIS +9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS +0.6
Difference: 8.9, Favors – ILLINOIS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS +2
Difference: 7.5, Favors – ILLINOIS
(375) LSU at (376) AUBURN
Actual Line: AUBURN +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AUBURN -1.2
Difference: 8.7, Favors – AUBURN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: AUBURN +4
Difference: 3.5, Favors – AUBURN
(371) HAWAII at (372) NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Actual Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS +4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.1
Difference: 8.6, Favors – NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.5
Difference: 9, Favors – NORTHERN ILLINOIS
(301) MIDDLE TENN STATE at (302) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Actual Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -18.4
Difference: 8.4, Favors – FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -17.9
Difference: 7.9, Favors – FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
(393) OLE MISS at (394) TEXAS
Actual Line: TEXAS -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS -11.2
Difference: 8.2, Favors – TEXAS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS -6.8
Difference: 3.8, Favors – TEXAS
(333) SYRACUSE at (334) NORTH CAROLINA
Actual Line: NORTH CAROLINA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH CAROLINA -15.3
Difference: 7.8, Favors – NORTH CAROLINA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTH CAROLINA -13.5
Difference: 6, Favors – NORTH CAROLINA
(385) SAN JOSE STATE at (386) NEVADA
Actual Line: NEVADA -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEVADA -12
Difference: 6.5, Favors – NEVADA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NEVADA -8.1
Difference: 2.6, Favors – NEVADA
(325) NC STATE at (326) STANFORD
Actual Line: STANFORD +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: STANFORD +0.3
Difference: 6.2, Favors – STANFORD
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: STANFORD +2.9
Difference: 3.6, Favors – STANFORD
(335) SACRAMENTO STATE at (336) BALL STATE
Actual Line: BALL STATE -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BALL STATE -20.3
Difference: 5.8, Favors – BALL STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: BALL STATE -16.9
Difference: 2.4, Favors – BALL STATE
(361) GEORGIA STATE at (362) ARKANSAS STATE
Actual Line: ARKANSAS STATE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS STATE +8.2
Difference: 5.7, Favors – GEORGIA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS STATE +5.6
Difference: 3.1, Favors – GEORGIA STATE
(353) BOWLING GREEN at (354) BUFFALO
Actual Line: BUFFALO -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BUFFALO +2
Difference: 5.5, Favors – BOWLING GREEN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: BUFFALO +2.5
Difference: 6, Favors – BOWLING GREEN
(349) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (350) OHIO U
Actual Line: OHIO U -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO U -17.9
Difference: 5.4, Favors – OHIO U
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OHIO U -16.5
Difference: 4, Favors – OHIO U
(339) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (340) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TOLEDO -8.3
Difference: 5.3, Favors – TOLEDO
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TOLEDO -13.7
Difference: 10.7, Favors – TOLEDO
(305) SOUTH ALABAMA at (306) MARSHALL
Actual Line: MARSHALL +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL -1.6
Difference: 4.1, Favors – MARSHALL
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL -3
Difference: 5.5, Favors – MARSHALL
(345) MIAMI OHIO at (346) CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Actual Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN -1.5
Difference: 4, Favors – CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN +3.5
Difference: 1, Favors – MIAMI OHIO
(359) LOUISIANA-MONROE at (360) TROY
Actual Line: TROY -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TROY -10.6
Difference: 3.9, Favors – LOUISIANA-MONROE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TROY -15.5
Difference: 1, Favors – TROY
(413) NORTH DAKOTA STATE at (414) NEW MEXICO
Actual Line: NEW MEXICO -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO -1.2
Difference: 3.3, Favors – NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO -4.2
Difference: 0.3, Favors – NORTH DAKOTA STATE
(399) CALIFORNIA at (400) SMU
Actual Line: SMU -19.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SMU -16.2
Difference: 3.3, Favors – CALIFORNIA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SMU -25.8
Difference: 6.3, Favors – SMU
(405) VANDERBILT at (406) KENTUCKY
Actual Line: KENTUCKY -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENTUCKY -13.8
Difference: 3.3, Favors – KENTUCKY
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: KENTUCKY -17.7
Difference: 7.2, Favors – KENTUCKY
(381) COLORADO at (382) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -15.5
Difference: 3, Favors – OKLAHOMA STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -12.4
Difference: 0.1, Favors – COLORADO
(407) BOISE STATE at (408) WASHINGTON STATE
Actual Line: WASHINGTON STATE +12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON STATE +9.6
Difference: 2.9, Favors – WASHINGTON STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON STATE +5.6
Difference: 6.9, Favors – WASHINGTON STATE
(309) NEW MEXICO STATE at (310) SAM HOUSTON STATE
Actual Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE +5.7
Difference: 2.7, Favors – NEW MEXICO STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE +1.9
Difference: 1.1, Favors – SAM HOUSTON STATE
(315) EAST CAROLINA at (316) MEMPHIS
Actual Line: MEMPHIS -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -7.3
Difference: 2.7, Favors – EAST CAROLINA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -12.5
Difference: 2.5, Favors – MEMPHIS
(351) BYU at (352) UCF
Actual Line: UCF +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCF +9.2
Difference: 2.7, Favors – BYU
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UCF +11.2
Difference: 4.7, Favors – BYU
(409) SAN DIEGO STATE (410) COLORADO STATE
Actual Line: COLORADO STATE +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO STATE -1.1
Difference: 2.6, Favors – COLORADO STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO STATE +1
Difference: 0.5, Favors – COLORADO STATE
(347) AKRON at (348) KENT STATE
Actual Line: KENT STATE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENT STATE -5.3
Difference: 2.3, Favors – KENT STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: KENT STATE -5.2
Difference: 2.2, Favors – KENT STATE
(317) MASSACHUSETTS at (318) CONNECTICUT
Actual Line: CONNECTICUT -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CONNECTICUT -12.4
Difference: 2.1, Favors – MASSACHUSETTS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: CONNECTICUT -10.7
Difference: 3.8, Favors – MASSACHUSETTS
(383) HOUSTON at (384) UTAH
Actual Line: UTAH -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH -4.4
Difference: 2.1, Favors – HOUSTON
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UTAH -5.7
Difference: 0.8, Favors – HOUSTON
(415) LIBERTY at (416) KENNESAW STATE
Actual Line: KENNESAW STATE +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENNESAW STATE +8
Difference: 2, Favors – KENNESAW STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: KENNESAW STATE +6.7
Difference: 3.3, Favors – KENNESAW STATE
(369) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at (370) TULANE
Actual Line: TULANE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TULANE +0.5
Difference: 2, Favors – TULANE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TULANE -0.5
Difference: 3, Favors – TULANE
(303) MISSOURI STATE at (304) DELAWARE
Actual Line: DELAWARE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: DELAWARE -1.2
Difference: 1.8, Favors – MISSOURI STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: DELAWARE -2
Difference: 1, Favors – MISSOURI STATE
(355) TENNESSEE at (356) SOUTH CAROLINA
Actual Line: SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH CAROLINA -4.3
Difference: 1.8, Favors – SOUTH CAROLINA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH CAROLINA -4.2
Difference: 1.7, Favors – SOUTH CAROLINA
(313) JAMES MADISON at (314) APPALACHIAN STATE
Actual Line: APPALACHIAN STATE +10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: APPALACHIAN STATE +12
Difference: 1.5, Favors – JAMES MADISON
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: APPALACHIAN STATE +7.6
Difference: 2.9, Favors – APPALACHIAN STATE
(377) IOWA at (378) MINNESOTA
Actual Line: MINNESOTA +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA +5.5
Difference: 1.5, Favors – MINNESOTA
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA +17
Difference: 10, Favors – IOWA
(397) NORTH TEXAS at (398) NAVY
Actual Line: NAVY +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NAVY +3.6
Difference: 1.1, Favors – NORTH TEXAS
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NAVY +6.8
Difference: 4.3, Favors – NORTH TEXAS
(367) VIRGINIA TECH at (368) CLEMSON
Actual Line: CLEMSON -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CLEMSON -1.6
Difference: 0.9, Favors – VIRGINIA TECH
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: CLEMSON -1
Difference: 1.5, Favors – VIRGINIA TECH
(329) BOSTON COLLEGE at (330) GEORGIA TECH
Actual Line: GEORGIA TECH -4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA TECH -4.7
Difference: 0.7, Favors – GEORGIA TECH
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA TECH -6.5
Difference: 2.5, Favors – GEORGIA TECH
(321) ARMY at (322) TULSA
Actual Line: TULSA -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TULSA -1
Difference: 0.5, Favors – ARMY
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TULSA -1
Difference: 0.5, Favors – ARMY
(411) UTAH STATE at (412) TEXAS STATE
Actual Line: TEXAS STATE -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS STATE -13.7
Difference: 0.2, Favors – TEXAS STATE
Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS STATE -16.3
Difference: 2.8, Favors – TEXAS STATE
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