Week 8 College Football
Welcome to the Week 8 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models align and disagree on the CFB schedule. This analysis helps pinpoint where there are betting opportunities on model alignment, and where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 8 College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
Michigan (-6) vs Washington, O/U 50.5
Washington is probably the biggest snub in the latest AP Top 25, which is an indictment on an already antiquated and essentially useless poll. The Huskies are 5-1 with their lone loss coming to Ohio State, while Michigan is 4-2 and has lost to the only two teams with a pulse that they’ve played, Oklahoma and USC.
Our model average projection on this game is Michigan -2.8 with a variance of just 2.8 points. FPI is the most Wolverine-friendly projection at -4.7, while TSI is more bearish on Michigan, projecting just a 1.9-point win for the Wolverines. SP+ and Sagarin both project about a 2.5-point line in favor of Michigan, but the market is at 6, so the models are showing good value on the road Huskies here.
College Football Pick: Washington +6
Marshall vs Texas State (-3), O/U 67.5
Marshall proved the models wrong last week against Old Dominion, dominating the Monarchs and showing there’s some juice to this Thundering Herd offense finally. Texas State is coming off an overtime loss to Troy in which they led most of the game before squandering the game late.
The model average projection on this game is Marshall -1.9 with a variance of just 4.3 points. TSI is the only model even predicting a Texas State win, and that’s by a mere half-point, while Sagarin projects the Herd -3.8, SP+ projects Marshall -2.9, and FPI has Marshall -1.5. Back to Huntington we go for another bet! Also, for what it’s worth, I like the Over in this game as well.
College Football Pick: Marshall +3
Model Disagreement
UCLA (-3.5) vs Maryland, O/U 52.5
It’s not surprising to see this game atop the biggest disagreements list. UCLA was a corpse early in the season but has come alive the last two games after firing its head coach and rallying around interim HC Tim Skipper. Maryland has been surprisingly good this year behind freshman QB Malik Washington, getting off to a 4-2 start on the year.
The models are all over the place with this game, with an average projection of Maryland -3.9 but a variance of 13 points. TSI and SP+ both predict Maryland by 9.5, while FPI predicts a pick ‘em and Sagarin has UCLA -3.5. I could argue either side here, as UCLA seems “hot” but also that abysmal team we saw early in the season is still in there somewhere, so I’m going to pass on this game.
South Carolina vs Oklahoma (-5.5), O/U 43.5
Oklahoma has again found itself on this model disagreements list. I’m not sure if it’s the on-field numbers vs preseason priors or the QB injury question or a combination of both, but the models cannot seem to get a handle on the Sooners. Compounding the issue is the fact that South Carolina hasn’t quite been what the preseason market expected them to be, either.
The average projection on this game is Oklahoma -3.5 with a variance of 11.9 points, with TSI and SP+ calling for OU -7.5 and -9, respectively. FPI and Sagarin, though, predict OU -1 and SC -3, so there are projections all over the place on this game, relative to the spread. This will be another pass for me, though it should be a pretty entertaining game to watch and collect a data point on.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
