Week 8 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 8 College Football

The college football season is moving at a breakneck pace, or at least that’s what it feels like. We also have games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays now, so being ready for the week ahead is under a bit of a time crunch. My Week 8 college football power ratings are a mixed bag this week. I feel like there are some teams that I just can’t figure out, but getting the article out in a timely fashion and evaluating the box scores on Sunday can only allow for so much wiggle room.

To be honest, it’s less about the time crunch and more about the fact that some of these teams are simply all over the place and there isn’t much you can do about it. We also have a couple more head coaches fired now, so that adds another dimension of the unknown, as we’ve seen UCLA take off and Virginia Tech improve, but that isn’t always going to be the case as we know.

I will say that I do feel pretty good with the sides that I like in the games where I am off-market. That isn’t always the case, as sometimes I feel frustrated that I don’t have a team or both teams rated properly, but the games where I have a bit of a discrepancy feel to me like those are sides that I actively want to be on as opposed to just not having good valuations. Hopefully it all works out the way it’s supposed to.

Before I get into the adjustments and the games that I like, let’s look at my 1 through 136.

Week 8 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	92.5	3.5
2	Oregon	90.5	3.5
3	Alabama	89.5	3.5
4	Indiana	88.5	2.5
5	Georgia	86.5	3
6	Miami (Florida)	86.5	2
7	Texas A&M	85.5	2
8	Notre Dame	85	3
9	Texas	85	3.5
10	Texas Tech	85	3
11	Missouri	83	3.5
12	Utah	83	3
13	USC	82.5	3
14	Mississippi	81.5	3
15	LSU	80.5	3.5
16	Michigan	80.5	3
17	Oklahoma	80.5	3
18	Tennessee	80.5	3.5
19	Vanderbilt	79.5	1.5
20	Arizona State	78.5	2
21	Auburn	78	2
22	BYU	77.5	2
23	Penn State	77.5	3.5
24	Florida	77	2
25	Clemson	76.5	2.5
26	Washington	76.5	3.5
27	Nebraska	76	2
28	Iowa	75.5	3
29	Florida State	75	2
30	Cincinnati	74	1.5
31	Georgia Tech	74	2
32	South Carolina	74	2.5
33	TCU	74	3
34	Louisville	73.5	3.5
35	Mississippi State	73	2
36	Arizona	72.5	2
37	Arkansas	72.5	2
38	Illinois	72.5	2
39	Iowa State	72	2
40	Baylor	71.5	2
41	Memphis	71.5	2.5
42	Pittsburgh	71.5	2
43	SMU	71.5	3.5
44	Duke	70.5	3.5
45	Virginia	70.5	2
46	South Florida	70	1.5
47	Minnesota	69.5	2
48	Boise State	69	3.5
49	Colorado	69	2
50	Kansas	69	2.5
51	Kansas State	69	3.5
52	Rutgers	68.5	2
53	Houston	68	2
54	Kentucky	68	2
55	Tulane	68	2.5
56	Maryland	67	2
57	Navy	66	2
58	Wisconsin	66	2
59	James Madison	65.5	3
60	North Carolina State	65.5	2
61	UCF	65.5	2
62	North Texas	65	2
63	East Carolina	64	2
64	Michigan State	64	2
65	Old Dominion	64	1.5
66	Wake Forest	64	2
67	Northwestern	63.5	1.5
68	Purdue	63.5	1
69	UCLA	63.5	2
70	Virginia Tech	63.5	2
71	California	63	2
72	Toledo	62.5	3
73	UNLV	61.5	2.5
74	Hawai’i	60.5	2
75	Texas State	60.5	2
76	Utah State	60.5	2
77	Boston College	60	2
78	Southern Mississippi	60	2
79	Syracuse	60	2.5
80	San Diego State	58.5	2
81	West Virginia	58.5	2
82	Miami (Ohio)	58	2.5
83	UTSA	58	3.5
84	Army	57.5	2.5
85	New Mexico	57.5	2
86	Fresno State	57	2
87	Air Force	56.5	2
88	Connecticut	56.5	2.5
89	Ohio	56.5	3.5
90	North Carolina	55.5	2
91	San Jose State	55.5	2.5
92	Temple	55.5	2
93	Western Kentucky	55.5	2.5
94	Louisiana Tech	54.5	2
95	Troy	54.5	3
96	Stanford	54	1
97	Delaware	53.5	3
98	Georgia Southern	53.5	3.5
99	South Alabama	53.5	2
100	Wyoming	53.5	2
101	Oregon State	52.5	3.5
102	Tulsa	52.5	1
103	Bowling Green	52	2
104	Florida Atlantic	52	2
105	Jacksonville State	52	3.5
106	Rice	52	3
107	Buffalo	51.5	2
108	Central Michigan	51.5	2
109	Louisiana-Lafayette	51.5	2
110	Washington State	51.5	3
111	Colorado State	51	2
112	Florida International	51	2
113	Marshall	50.5	3
114	Oklahoma State	50.5	2
115	Western Michigan	50.5	2
116	Liberty	50	3
117	Appalachian State	49.5	2
118	Arkansas State	49.5	2
119	Kennesaw State	49.5	1.5
120	Northern Illinois	49.5	1
121	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2
122	UAB	47.5	2.5
123	Nevada	47	1
124	Louisiana-Monroe	46.5	2
125	Georgia State	45.5	1
126	Coastal Carolina	45	2
127	UTEP	45	2
128	Missouri State	44.5	2
129	Sam Houston State	44.5	0.5
130	Charlotte	43.5	1
131	Akron	42.5	2
132	New Mexico State	42.5	2.5
133	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
134	Ball State	39.5	2.5
135	Kent State	39	1
136	Massachusetts	33.5	1

Here are my Week 8 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Liberty +2, Kennesaw State +2.5, Southern Miss +2, Sam Houston +1.5, East Carolina +1, Washington +2, Temple +2, UCF +1, Louisiana +2.5, Marshall +2.5, Northwestern +1.5, Clemson +1.5, Pitt +1.5, UCLA +5, Eastern Michigan +1, Texas Tech +1, Colorado +1, Utah +2.5, New Mexico +1, USC +1.5, Arizona +1.5, Troy +3, Arkansas +1.5, Illinois +1.5, Stanford +1, UTSA +2, Kansas State +1.5, Notre Dame +2.5, Indiana +3, Texas +1.5, UNLV +1.5, Purdue +2.5, Florida Atlantic +2, Hawaii +2

Down: UTEP -5, Louisiana Tech -2, Jacksonville State -1.5, Fresno State -3, Rutgers -1.5, UMass -3, James Madison -1.5, Old Dominion -1.5, Georgia State -2.5, Penn State -5.5, Boston College -2.5, Florida State -3.5, Wisconsin -1.5, Michigan State -2.5, UL Monroe -3, Bowling Green -4, Northern Illinois -1.5, Kansas -2.5, Mississippi -1.5, Iowa State -2, Arizona State -2.5, Texas State -4, Tennessee -2, LSU -1, SMU -1, TCU -4.5, NC State -2.5, Air Force -1.5, Minnesota -1.5, Auburn -1.5, Oklahoma -1.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

UCLA +5: What a run for Tim Skipper. I really don’t think he’s under consideration for the job, but UCLA looks like a totally different team and kudos to them. That was a miserable scheduling spot against Michigan State and they rolled.

Indiana +3: I guess this year’s version of Indiana is legit. Last year’s had a lot of unanswered questions and got beaten by the two good teams they played. This win over Oregon was extremely impressive.

Troy +3: Market adjustment here, as it seems life without Goose Crowder isn’t as bad as originally thought.

Penn State -5.5: I feel vindicated and validated that Drew Allar isn’t very good and that James Franklin has now been fired. Allar is out for the season, so 5.5 might not even be enough, but this is a program in shambles now.

UTEP -5: Scotty Walden took a really tough job and there was a lot of hope that he would find a way to succeed. I don’t think he’s going to. This should be a FCS program.

TCU -4.5: Market correction. I like Josh Hoover, but it seems like the rest of the team may not be very good.

Bowling Green -4: Market correction here, too. While I had Bowling Green as a massive overlay against Toledo, that box score does not point towards a Falcons win. They got very, very lucky.

Texas State -4: GJ Kinne just doesn’t have the roster here for one reason or another. I also wonder if he’s halfway out the door for another gig.

Florida State -3.5: Turns out maybe we were all premature in thinking that the Seminoles were back. Also, what the hell happened in that Alabama game? Where has that team been?

UL Monroe -3: I really like Bryant Vincent. I don’t really like Bryant Vincent’s team.

UMass -3: Kent State hadn’t beaten a FBS team since November 26, 2022. Kent State beat UMass 42-6. I’m not sure I could rate this team lower than where I have them now.

Fresno State -3: Woof. What a horrible effort from the Bulldogs against Colorado State. They did win the box score, but had a bunch of turnovers and couldn’t stop a nosebleed on the short fields the Rams had. Market correction here, too.

My Week 8 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/14	New Mexico State	Liberty	-10.5
	Arkansas State	South Alabama	-6
	FIU	Western Kentucky	-7
10/15	Delaware	Jacksonville State	-2
	UTEP	Sam Houston State	PK
10/16	Tulsa	East Carolina	-13.5
10/17	Louisville	Miami (FL)	-15
	Nebraska	Minnesota	+4.5
	San Jose State	Utah State	-7
	North Carolina	Cal	-9.5
10/18	Buffalo	UMass	+17
	Coastal Carolina	App State	-6.5
	West Virginia	UCF	-9
	Eastern Michigan	Miami (OH)	-13
	Florida Atlantic	South Florida	-19.5
	Northern Illinois	Ohio	-10.5
	Old Dominion	James Madison	-4.5
	Temple	Charlotte	+11
	Georgia State	Georgia Southern	-11.5
	Oklahoma	South Carolina	+4
	Kent State	Toledo	-26.5
	UConn	Boston College	-5.5
	SMU	Clemson	-7.5
	Georgia Tech	Duke	PK
	Michigan State	Indiana	-27
	Texas State	Marshall	+7
	Troy	UL Monroe	+6
	Pitt	Syracuse	+9
	Akron	Ball State	+0.5
	Central Michigan	Bowling Green	-2.5
	Purdue	Northwestern	-1.5
	LSU	Vanderbilt	-0.5
	Hawaii	Colorado State	+7.5
	UNLV	Boise State	-11
	Nevada	New Mexico	-12.5
	Maryland	UCLA	+1.5
	Washington	Michigan	-7
	Mississippi State	Florida	-6
	UTSA	North Texas	-9
	Missouri	Auburn	+3
	Arizona	Houston	+2.5
	Baylor	TCU	-5.5
	Southern Miss	Louisiana	+6.5
	Army	Tulane	-13
	Mississippi	Georgia	-8
	Texas A&M	Arkansas	+11
	Penn State	Iowa	-1
	Cincinnati	Oklahoma State	+21.5
	Ohio State	Wisconsin	+24.5
	Utah	BYU	+3.5
	Memphis	UAB	+21.5
	Wyoming	Air Force	-5
	Texas Tech	Arizona State (w/ Leavitt)	+4.5
	Texas	Kentucky	+15.5
	Washington State	Virginia	-21
	Oregon	Rutgers	+20
	USC	Notre Dame	-5.5
	Tennessee	Alabama	-12.5
	Florida State	Stanford	+20

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Coastal Carolina +11.5 (+6.5) at App State: I’ve hated the Chanticleers all season long and now I’m at a point where I have value in backing them. That’s pretty telling.

Georgia Southern -6.5 (-11.5) vs. Georgia State: The annual “Modern Day Hate” game between Georgia Southern and Georgia State is this week. I have not been a Georgia Southern fan this season either, but now I have value on them. That’s pretty telling.

Texas State -3 (-7) at Marshall: Maybe I’m missing something here, but I made adjustments to both teams and I still have clear value on Texas State.

Central Michigan +6 (+2.5) at Bowling Green: I adjusted Bowling Green down a good bit and now I’m off on this game. I guess maybe I had Toledo rated too low, but they haven’t really impressed me. I may not play this one despite the line value.

Hawaii +1 (-7.5) at Colorado State: I know the Rainbow Warriors are coming to the mainland, but I do not understand this line at all whatsoever. I don’t think Colorado State is any good at all. Hawaii already has five wins and Micah Alejado is improving.

Missouri +2.5 (-3) at Auburn: I’m not sure why Auburn is still getting any market respect. I simply don’t think this team is good at all.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.