Week 8 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 8 College Football Power Ratings:

It was a major market correction week for me in the Week 8 College Football Power Ratings. Some teams had gotten out of range and there were some numbers that were not only wrong compared to the betting market, but also compared to the result. So, there are a lot of good-sized adjustments on teams to go over.

With those corrections made, the hardest part for me falls to evaluating the blue-blood programs. Teams like Alabama and Georgia have not been impressive at all, but we know the ceilings of these types of programs. Mississippi is a team loaded with talent that keeps underperforming. Ohio State finally got tested and the usual issues with Ryan Day and the coaching came to the forefront. Penn State should have lost to USC, which is James Franklin’s MO in big games, but they prevailed, so how do you analyze that type of win?

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I think what we’ve found out over time is that college football is hard. Perfection is a challenge. Living up to expectations is a challenge. The portal, the NIL, the bright lights, the distractions, the business decisions, the coaching. All of it. And all of it with over 130 teams to varying degrees. Of course the more scrutinized teams are the ones you really want to get right since the market will be the most efficient on those, but being out of line with the Group of Five teams can be costly as well.

Here are my Week 8 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Texas	92	3.5
2	Georgia	91	3
3	Ohio State	91	3.5
4	Clemson	88.5	3
5	Oregon	88.5	3.5
6	Alabama	85.5	3.5
7	Mississippi	84.5	3.5
8	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
9	Miami (Florida)	83	2
10	Penn State	83	3.5
11	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
12	LSU	81	3.5
13	Indiana	80.5	1.5
14	Iowa State	80.5	2
15	Texas A&M	79.5	3
16	Iowa	79	2.5
17	SMU	79	3.5
18	USC	78	2
19	Boise State	77.5	2.5
20	Kansas State	77.5	3.5
21	Arkansas	76.5	2
22	BYU	76.5	2
23	Louisville	76.5	3.5
24	Nebraska	76.5	2
25	Florida	75.5	2
26	Michigan	75	3.5
27	Missouri	75	2
28	South Carolina	74	2.5
29	Army	73.5	2
30	Auburn	73.5	2
31	Kentucky	73.5	2.5
32	Oklahoma	73.5	3.5
33	Pittsburgh	73.5	2
34	Texas Tech	73.5	2.5
35	Tulane	73.5	2
36	Utah	73.5	3.5
37	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
38	Georgia Tech	73	1
39	Washington	73	2
40	California	72.5	2
41	Colorado	72.5	2
42	West Virginia	72.5	3
43	Wisconsin	72.5	2
44	Cincinnati	71.5	2
45	UNLV	71.5	2
46	Arizona State	70	2
47	Oklahoma State	70	3.5
48	Washington State	70	2.5
49	Minnesota	69.5	2
50	Illinois	69	2
51	TCU	69	2.5
52	Virginia	69	2
53	Arizona	68.5	2
54	Memphis	68.5	2
55	Michigan State	68.5	2.5
56	UCF	68.5	3
57	Boston College	68	1.5
58	Navy	68	2
59	Vanderbilt	68	1
60	Kansas	67.5	2
61	North Carolina	67.5	2.5
62	Rutgers	67.5	2
63	Texas State	67.5	2
64	Florida State	67	2
65	Maryland	67	2
66	Syracuse	67	2.5
67	James Madison	66.5	3.5
68	Baylor	66	2
69	Louisiana-Lafayette	65.5	3
70	Northwestern	63.5	1.5
71	Duke	63	3
72	UCLA	62.5	2
73	Fresno State	62	2.5
74	South Alabama	62	2.5
75	Jacksonville State	61.5	2.5
76	North Carolina State	61.5	3.5
77	Western Kentucky	61.5	2.5
78	Houston	61	2
79	Northern Illinois	60.5	1.5
80	Stanford	60.5	1
81	Sam Houston State	60	2
82	Toledo	60	2.5
83	Bowling Green	59	2
84	Marshall	59	2
85	Wake Forest	59	2.5
86	Liberty	58.5	3
87	Mississippi State	58.5	2
88	Oregon State	58.5	3.5
89	South Florida	58.5	2
90	North Texas	58	2
91	Appalachian State	57.5	2.5
92	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
93	Old Dominion	57.5	2
94	Coastal Carolina	57	2.5
95	East Carolina	57	2
96	Connecticut	56.5	2
97	Nevada	56.5	1.5
98	Arkansas State	56	2
99	Miami (Ohio)	56	3
100	Purdue	55.5	2
101	Colorado State	55	1
102	New Mexico	55	1
103	Georgia State	54	2
104	UTSA	54	3.5
105	San Jose State	53.5	2
106	Western Michigan	53.5	2
107	Ohio	53	2
108	Utah State	53	2
109	Charlotte	51.5	1
110	Florida Atlantic	51.5	2
111	Rice	51.5	2
112	Buffalo	50.5	1
113	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
114	Hawai’i	50	2
115	Louisiana-Monroe	49	2
116	San Diego State	49	2
117	Troy	49	2.5
118	Central Michigan	48.5	2
119	Tulsa	48.5	1
120	Louisiana Tech	48	2
121	Akron	47.5	1
122	Air Force	47	2.5
123	Wyoming	47	2.5
124	Massachusetts	46.5	1
125	Florida International	46	1
126	Temple	46	2
127	UAB	44	2.5
128	Southern Mississippi	43.5	2
129	UTEP	41.5	2
130	Middle Tennessee	40.5	2
131	Ball State	39	2
132	New Mexico State	36.5	2.5
133	Kent State	35.5	2
134	Kennesaw State	34.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: FIU +2, James Madison +2.5, Western Kentucky +3, Northwestern +1.5, Utah State +2, Arizona State +2.5, Vanderbilt +4, NC State +4.5, Northern Illinois +2.5, Florida +2, Clemson +2.5, Cincinnati +3, Buffalo +2.5, Florida Atlantic +4, Rice +2, Army +5, Wisconsin +2.5, Colorado +2, New Mexico +4, Colorado State +3, BYU +3, Washington State +3, South Carolina +3, App State +1, Texas State +3, Oregon +1, Iowa +2, Mississippi +1, Akron +2, Louisiana Tech +2, 

Down: Liberty -5, Coastal Carolina -2, Middle Tennessee -3, UTEP -3, Maryland -2, Utah -4.5, Eastern Michigan -1.5, Kentucky -1.5, Syracuse -1, Bowling Green -3.5, Louisville -1, Tennessee -4.5, Ball State -5, UCF -2, Toledo -2.5, North Texas -1.5, UTSA -5, UAB -4, Southern Miss -2, Rutgers -3, Air Force -3, San Jose State -6, Arizona -4, Fresno State -2, Alabama -2.5, Louisiana -1, Wyoming -2.5, Arkansas State -2, Ohio State -2, Washington -1.5, Oregon State -5, South Florida -5, Pitt -1, Kennesaw State -2, Wake Forest -4, Miami (OH) -3, Oklahoma -2, New Mexico State -4

Injury: Colorado -3 (Hunter)*, South Florida -6 (Brown)*

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Army +5: Here we go again. Another week with Army. The Black Knights are in the Top 25 now. So is Navy. First time since 1960 for those two to be there together. Pretty cool.

NC State +4.5: Reluctantly, I’m moving NC State up. I need to be closer to the market on this team because it does seem like Bailey is doing more good things with the offense than McCall was.

Vanderbilt +4: Another adjustment for the Dores after knocking off Kentucky. What an impressive season for Vandy and Diego Pavia.

Florida Atlantic +4: Another reluctant update here, as I think I was right on this team coming into the season and followed it up by lowering them too much, as they were basically playing at the standard I had set for them to begin with.

New Mexico +4: Another market correction here. I’ve been short on New Mexico lines 3-4 weeks in a row now. Guess that they are better than I realized.

+3 teams: A lotta +3 teams this week – Western Kentucky, Cincinnati, Colorado State, BYU, Washington State, South Carolina, and Texas State. Many of these are to better align with the market as opposed to performance-based bumps.

San Jose State -6: I got way too excited about this team. Side note, I’ve also been too low on Colorado State a few weeks in a row. Led to a perfect storm and a bad bet on the Spartans this past weekend.

Liberty -5: I get worried about lowering good teams in bad conferences because it seems like they have the ability to figure it out and start to shine. Liberty has not only not done that, but they’ve flirted with losing to some awful teams.

Ball State -5: The market cannot stand this team. Therefore, neither can I.

Oregon State -5: I fell for it with Oregon State early in the season. The Oregon loss really sent them into a tailspin of not playing well.

South Florida -5: This isn’t even an injury adjustment for Byrum Brown. It’s just an adjustment. I’d chop off another six points if Brown is out again.

UTSA -5: I had adjusted UTSA and then had to make another one when I saw what my lines were spitting out for this week. It’s astonishing how far they’ve fallen.

Utah -4.5: Another team I, and many others, was wrong about coming into the season. It honestly doesn’t matter if it’s Isaac Wilson or Cam Rising. This team just isn’t performing up to where it should be.

Tennessee -4.5: This is the one that’ll stand out to everybody. Tennessee beat Florida. Barely. In the three SEC games that they’ve played, the Vols have scored 62 points and have 4.8 yards per play. They haven’t even played a really good one yet. They will this week against Alabama.

UAB -4: Fire Trent Dilfer.

Arizona -4: They miss Jedd Fisch. Badly.

Wake Forest -4: This was a correction to where my Wake Forest line was against UConn. Maybe I’ll regret mirroring the market here, but it hasn’t been pretty for the Deacs this season.

New Mexico State -4: Apparently I neglected to notice just how awful this team was. My line against New Mexico a few weeks back should’ve been my first sign.

Bowling Green -3.5: How disappointing has this team been the last three weeks? Hanging with Penn State and Texas A&M only to barely beat Akron and lose to Old Dominion and Northern Illinois? Sheesh.

-3 teams: Plenty of those – Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Rutgers, Air Force, and Miami (OH)

Here are my Week 8 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/15	Troy	South Alabama	-15.5
	Kennesaw State	Middle Tennessee	-8
	Louisiana Tech	New Mexico State	+9
10/16	Western Kentucky	Sam Houston State	-0.5
	FIU	UTEP	+2.5
10/17	Boston College	Virginia Tech	-7.5
	Georgia State	Marshall	-7
10/18	Florida State	Duke	+1
	Oregon	Purdue	+31
	Oklahoma State	BYU	-8.5
	Fresno State	Nevada	+4
10/19	UCF	Iowa State	-14
	Wake Forest	UConn	+0.5
	East Carolina	Army	-18.5
	James Madison	Georgia Southern	+7
	Miami (FL)	Louisville	+3
	Ohio	Miami (OH)	-6
	Tulsa	Temple	+0.5
	Western Michigan	Buffalo	+2
	Kentucky	Florida	-4
	Texas State	Old Dominion	+8
	Charlotte	Navy	-18.5
	Alabama	Tennessee	-0.5
	Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	+9.5
	Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	+6
	Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	-4
	Virginia	Clemson	-22.5
	Arizona State	Cincinnati	-3.5
	Kansas State	West Virginia	+2
	North Texas	Memphis	-14.5
	Baylor	Texas Tech	-10
	Kent State	Bowling Green	-25.5
	South Carolina	Oklahoma	-3
	Toledo	Northern Illinois	-2
	UAB	South Florida (w/ Brown)	-16.5
	UCLA	Rutgers	-7
	USC	Maryland	+9
	Michigan	Illinois	+4
	Wisconsin	Northwestern	+7.5
	New Mexico	Utah State	PK
	TCU	Utah	-8
	Colorado State	Air Force	+5.5
	Wyoming	San Jose State	-8.5
	Colorado (w/ Hunter)	Arizona	+2
	NC State	Cal	-13
	SMU	Stanford	+17.5
	Ball State	Vanderbilt	-30
	Houston	Kansas	-8.5
	LSU	Arkansas	+2.5
	Georgia	Texas	-4.5
	Rice	Tulane	-24
	Texas A&M	Mississippi State	+19
	FAU	UTSA	-6
	Auburn	Missouri	-3.5
	Hawaii	Washington State	-22.5
	UNLV	Oregon State	+9.5
	Iowa	Michigan State	+8
	Arkansas State	Southern Miss	+10.5
	Nebraska	Indiana	-5.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Florida State +3 (-1) at Duke: Friday night ACC action. I don’t think FSU is bad as they’ve shown. I don’t think Duke is all that good. Not sure I can take the Seminoles here, but they are off a bye, so we’ll see if they have any character or not.

Texas Tech -6.5 (-10) vs. Baylor: The Red Raiders have played well; Baylor has not. Both teams off a bye. I think Joey McGuire and his staff are going in the right direction. I think Dave Aranda might be a DC somewhere next season after getting fired from Baylor.

Michigan -1 (-4) at Illinois: I know Michigan still can’t throw a forward pass, but Illinois has some issues and has only faced one team (Penn State) with this kind of talent and lost 21-7.

Colorado +3.5 (-2) at Arizona: I just don’t think Brent Brennan is it down in Tucson. Shedeur keeps balling out with no offensive line. Hoping Travis Hunter can play.

Auburn +7 (+3.5) at Missouri: I’ve found Missouri very hard to grade throughout the season. Auburn has only beaten Alabama A&M and New Mexico, so I guess I’m probably not low enough on them. This is a game I’ll watch to see if I do need to make a big correction to the Tigers.

UNLV -5.5 (-9.5) at Oregon State: I think UNLV runs it all over Oregon State here. The Beavers have really disappointed me. They are 119th in yards per play on defense this season. And obviously it was the offense we were all focused on with Jonathan Smith and DJU gone.

Arkansas State -6.5 (-10.5) at Southern Miss: Southern Miss is creeping towards one of the worst teams in the nation for me. Arkansas State has underwhelmed after last year’s big push to the end. But under a touchdown, I can’t escape this one.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.