Week 8 College Football Predictions
We’re now almost two full months into the season, and there are still some teams (Texas) that we have no idea how good they actually are. Florida State beat Alabama in Week 1 and then has gone back to below average since then, for example. Texas lost to Ohio State and Florida before beating Oklahoma in convincing fashion in the Red River Rivalry. Notre Dame has two losses but is still very high in the power ratings – even without the preseason priors baked in. There’s a lot still to be sorted out, but I am very happy with the performance of TSI overall this season. Week 7 was particularly good. Let’s look to keep the momentum rolling into Week 8 with a couple of early-week best bets.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
U Conn vs. Boston College (-1.5), O/U 56.5
Bill O’Brien’s team is just 1-5 straight up this season and just 2-4 ATS; meanwhile, U Conn is 4-2 straight up and 3-2-1 ATS. So far this season, Boston College has allowed teams to score nine more points than their average, while the Eagles themselves have been held to eight points below the opponent’s average. The Huskies basically score what the opposing team allows on average and gives up four points more than the opponent’s average defensively. TSI projects U Conn -7.5 in this game, and we’re already seeing some offshore books drop this line to 1. I think U Conn will close as the favorite. The hold opponent-adjusted advantages in points per game, points per play, red zone %, red zone scoring, touchdown % and explosive rate.
College Football Pick: U Conn +1.5
Northern Illinois vs. Ohio (-11.5), O/U 42.5
I try not to label teams as “Over teams” or “Under teams”, but man, this Northern Illinois team is certainly one you don’t hesitate to bet an Under on, as they average just nine points per game against FBS competition and allow just 21. On the other side, the Ohio Bobcats aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, averaging just 21 points per game and allowing 24. TSI projects just 27.5 points in this game, so I feel great about the number. Formulas based on opponent-adjusted points per game, points per play, red zone %, red zone scoring and touchdown % all align and project just 31 points in this game, on average. This is a really good bet, based on the numbers, but don’t be the sicko that watches this game sweating the Under.
College Football Pick: Under 42.5
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