Week 9 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

One of the top college football games of the weekend is in our neighborhood, which is a rarity. Unless it was a Pac-12 championship game, what happened in Las Vegas stayed here and never mattered on a national scale. But this one is meaningful and has 12-team playoff implications, so let’s look under the Friday night lights to kick off my Week 9 college football best bets:

 

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Boise State (-3.5) at UNLV

Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET

The Rebels are relevant and chasing a Mountain West title for the first time in forever. It’s not a fluke, but Boise State will be the barometer for UNLV, which needs to show it is for real. The way to prove that is to bring the fight and beat the league’s heavyweight champ, and coach Barry Odom has done a remarkable job of improving the program’s talent and toughness in his two years. The only opponents to outclass UNLV under Odom were Michigan and Boise last season, but it appears Odom has closed the gap on the Broncos.

Boise is power rated so highly because its only loss was by three points at Oregon, and its star running back, Ashton Jeanty, is nearly unstoppable. Jeanty is the nation’s leading rusher with 1,248 yards (208 per game), including 192 against the Ducks. It’s not difficult to see what the Broncos want to do, and the Rebels are strong enough defensively not to get trampled. Jeanty will probably roll up 150-plus yards as usual, but the key to this game should be quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and a balanced UNLV offense. In four starts, Williams has completed 70.5 percent of his passes and totaled 1,228 yards (838 passing, 390 rushing) and 14 touchdowns with only two interceptions. His top target, Ricky White, is an NFL prospect, and the Broncos’ weakness happens to be their pass defense.

I’m not being a cheerleader or homer here. I’ve bet on UNLV once (59-14 victory over Fresno State) and against the Rebels once (44-41 overtime loss to Syracuse), so my read on Odom’s team has been on the money so far. The home ‘dog is capable of winning this game.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet: UNLV +3.5

Washington at Indiana (-6.5)

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN)

A thumb injury has sidelined veteran quarterback Kurtis Rourke (74.6 percent completions, 15 touchdown passes) and put Tayven Jackson in charge of the Hoosiers’ offense. Jackson is a dynamic athlete, but the dropoff from Rourke’s leadership and passing ability is significant. Huskies coach Jedd Fisch is off a bye, and veteran quarterback Will Rogers is playing at a high level. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti is the real deal. His 7-0 team has not trailed in a game this season. There’s a first time for everything, though, and this is the first time I’m betting against Cignetti. It appears this line is not moving to 7, so I’m buying the half-point to the key number.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet: Washington +7 (-130)

Brigham Young at Central Florida (-2)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Cougars, 7-0 and ranked No. 11, needed a fantastic finish — Jake Retzlaff’s 35-yard touchdown pass with 10 seconds left — to beat Oklahoma State 38-35 last Friday in Provo, Utah. This trip to Orlando could be a dose of reality. BYU opened a 2-point favorite and is now a 2-point underdog to a 3-4 UCF team. The Knights blew a 35-27 fourth-quarter lead in a 38-35 loss at Iowa State last week. In that defeat, UCF’s RJ Harvey rushed for 196 yards and quarterback Jacurri Brown added 154 on the ground. BYU is on upset alert.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet: UCF -2

Texas (-18.5) at Vanderbilt

Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET (SECN)

After missing a month with an oblique injury, Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers has struggled in games against Oklahoma and Georgia. The loss to the Bulldogs was a deflating experience for Texas, which could be emotionally flat for this road game. The Commodores, who have knocked off Alabama and Kentucky, can hang around and make this interesting. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is a tough competitor who avoids turnovers (11 touchdowns, one interception), and he must continue doing the latter to have a shot against Texas. I’ll play it safer by splitting a unit on the first half and game, as I did with Alabama-Vandy in early October.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +18.5 and 1H +10.5 (half-unit each)

Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

In the Nittany Lions’ only previous Big Ten road game, they rallied from a 20-6 halftime deficit to steal a 33-30 overtime win at USC. Is Penn State peeking ahead to next week’s bigger game against No. 4 Ohio State? The lookahead spot is not something I’m counting on, but the Badgers’ Luke Fickell should be a coach you can count on as a home ‘dog. Wisconsin’s defense has been better, allowing a total of 16 points in consecutive blowout victories over Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, and the offense is showing more life behind quarterback Braedyn Locke and running back Tawee Walker. It’s a night game at Camp Randall Stadium, capping off a compelling argument for the Badgers.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet: Wisconsin +7 (-130)

Washington State (-14) at San Diego State

Saturday, 10:30 p.m. (CBSSN)

The Cougars were unimpressive in their previous road game, a 25-17 win at Fresno State on Oct. 12, with the Bulldogs finishing with a 338-295 edge in total yards. The big edge in this matchup goes to Washington State quarterback John Mateer, who has totaled 2,429 yards (1,896 passing, 533 rushing) and 24 touchdowns. The Aztecs, showing signs of improvement after a poor start to the season, can rely on running back Marquez Cooper to help control the clock and keep this game competitive. I made the line Cougars -10, so I’ll trust my number.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet: San Diego State +14

Nevada at Hawaii (-1.5)

Saturday, 11:59 p.m. ET

It appears the Wolf Pack will be without dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis, who left last week’s game with a head injury. Chubba Purdy is the backup, and he’s a big dropoff in talent from Lewis. Nevada was a 2.5-point favorite early this week, but the favorite has flipped with the quarterback switch. Hawaii is typically tough as a home ‘dog, and it trailed Boise State 13-7 early in the fourth quarter two weeks ago in Honolulu. Senior quarterback Brayden Schager does almost everything on offense for the Warriors, who were solid defensively against the Broncos and should be able to handle the Wolf Pack offense without Lewis.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet: Hawaii -1.5

Last week: 1-2 against the spread
Season: 21-17-1

For more Week 9 college football analysis, visit the Week 9 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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