Week 9 College Football
Welcome to the Week 8 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are Week 9 college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 9 College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
Purdue vs Rutgers (-2.5), O/U 58.5
Purdue has the fewest number of wins against P4 competition in the last two years; however, this year’s team has shown a whole lot more life than the Ryan Walters’ era teams did, and I think they’re live this week against a Rutgers team that just got put in a blender by Oregon.
Our model average projection on this game is Rutgers -0.5 with a variance of just 2.8 points. Sagarin and SP+ both project the game Rutgers -1.5, while FPI makes Rutgers a half-point favorite and TSI goes as far as projecting Purdue -1.2. We’re seeing this line start to come down to 2 at some books, aligning with the model consensus here on the Boilermakers, so I’m going to grab the +2.5 and put some on the ML as well.
College Football Pick: Purdue +2.5
Washington (-4) vs Illinois, O/U 54.5
Honestly, it was hard to find another game where the models even remotely aligned on the same side of the spread, either indicating very sharp lines this week or a reflection of how different models incorporate on-field results and apply those to the preseason priors. But the models are mostly aligned here on the Illini traveling to Seattle to take on Washington after the Huskies’ lopsided loss to Michigan.
The model average projection on this game is Washington -2.5 with a variance of just 5.8 points. TSI is calling for the Illini outright win here, whereas the other three models fall between Washington -3 and Washington -4.5. I played Illinois on Sunday and I stand by that here on Thursday, as we’ve seen the line move in Illinois’ favor as well. I think Illinois is perhaps deflated in the market because of lopsided losses to Ohio State and Indiana, but those are the top two teams in the country, and this Washington team is nowhere close to the level of those teams right now.
College Football Pick: Illinois +4
Model Disagreement
Arizona State (-7) vs Houston, O/U 46.5
Plenty of disagreement amongst the models this week, and at the P4 level this was the one that stuck out to me with a wide array of projections. Arizona State is coming off of a huge win against Texas Tech, the Raiders’ first of the season, and Houston has been a pleasant surprise this season, starting out 6-1 so far.
The models are all over the place with this game, with an average projection of ASU -5.3 but a variance of 8.1 points. SP+ makes the game less than a 1-point spread, while Sagain projects the Sun Devils -9, and TSI and FPI are both around ASU -5.5, so we’ve got projections all above and below key numbers here so I’d highly advise passing on this game. WR Jordyn Tyson’s injury certainly doesn’t help.
Miami OH (-1) vs Western Michigan, O/U 41.5
Both teams are 4-3 entering this game, and this is another one where the spread is right in the middle of the models’ projections, although in full transparency I did make a play on this game despite the models’ disagreement because of the TSI projection here.
The average projection on this game is a pick ‘em, with a variance of 7.8 points. TSI calls for the minor upset, projecting WMU -5.5, FPI makes it a pick ‘em, and SP+ and Sagarin both have the RedHawks covering at around -2.5 each. So, I understand if you pass on this game because of the aggregate view of the game, but like I said, I played the Broncos based on the TSI projection and these teams’ trends. The line seems to agree with me, as it’s come down from 2.5 earlier in the week.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
