Week 9 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 9 College Football

Keeping up with college football power ratings is a good way not to overreact to what we’ve most recently seen, but there are some teams that are very, very difficult to gauge right now. I’ve spent a lot of time talking about how there’s a lot of parity with the dispersal of talent these days, but I’m not talking about weekly inconsistency. I’m talking about teams that have fired coaches, are likely to fire coaches, or otherwise have uncomfortable situations that have players thinking about where they’re going to go in the transfer portal for next season. I’ve tried to account for some of that in my Week 9 College Football Power Ratings.

But, the honest reality is that we don’t really know how a lot of these players think or feel. In some instances, they may feel responsible when coaches get canned. In other instances, they’re probably rejoicing that a coach was shown the door. Because we don’t have nearly as much access to the college players as we do the NFL ones, the quotes aren’t always as telling. But, the effort level on the field certainly can be. Then we have to try to figure out if a team will pull an UCLA and suddenly wake up or if the coach getting pink slipped is merely another raindrop to a raging flood.

The games themselves are still very valuable, as bowl eligibility, conference hardware, and spots in the College Football Playoff are up for grabs, but not everybody has those same motivations now. And it might absolutely be more lucrative for a player to get a bag somewhere else rather than stay or be a fifth-round draft pick or something. Those are things that we have to consider when getting deeper into the game. The function of power ratings remains to try and get some line value early before the market moves.

And the market has still been very active and will continue to be. The NBA starts on Tuesday and we’ll have a very soft early-season college basketball betting market in a couple of weeks. Those will take away some interest in college football. But, there are plenty of dollars and bettors to go around. I’ll still be covering college football until the end, including these weekly power ratings updates.

Week 9 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	92.5	3.5
2	Oregon	90.5	3.5
3	Alabama	89.5	3.5
4	Indiana	88.5	2.5
5	Georgia	87.5	3
6	Notre Dame	87	3
7	Texas Tech	85	3
8	Miami (Florida)	84	2
9	Texas A&M	84	2
10	Texas	83.5	3.5
11	Missouri	83	3.5
12	Utah	83	3
13	Mississippi	81.5	3
14	Vanderbilt	81.5	1.5
15	USC	81	3
16	Michigan	80.5	3
17	Oklahoma	80.5	3
18	Tennessee	80.5	3.5
19	Arizona State	78.5	2
20	LSU	78	3.5
21	BYU	77.5	2
22	Penn State	77.5	3.5
23	Florida	77	2
24	Auburn	76.5	2
25	Clemson	76.5	2.5
26	Washington	76.5	3.5
27	Cincinnati	75.5	1.5
28	Georgia Tech	75.5	2
29	Iowa	75.5	3
30	Louisville	75	3.5
31	Pittsburgh	74	2
32	TCU	74	3
33	Arkansas	73.5	2
34	Mississippi State	73	2
35	Arizona	72.5	2
36	Illinois	72.5	2
37	Nebraska	72.5	2
38	Iowa State	72	2
39	South Florida	72	1.5
40	Baylor	71.5	2
41	SMU	71.5	3.5
42	South Carolina	71.5	2.5
43	Florida State	71	2
44	Boise State	70.5	3.5
45	Duke	70.5	3.5
46	Houston	70.5	2
47	Kentucky	69.5	2
48	Minnesota	69.5	2
49	Colorado	69	2
50	Kansas	69	2.5
51	Kansas State	69	3.5
52	Memphis	68.5	2.5
53	Rutgers	68.5	2
54	Virginia	68.5	2
55	James Madison	67	3
56	Tulane	67	2.5
57	Navy	66	2
58	Northwestern	66	1.5
59	UCLA	66	2
60	East Carolina	65.5	2
61	Maryland	65.5	2
62	North Carolina State	65.5	2
63	UCF	65.5	2
64	North Texas	65	2
65	Michigan State	64	2
66	Wake Forest	64	2
67	Purdue	63.5	1
68	Virginia Tech	63.5	2
69	Wisconsin	63	2
70	Old Dominion	62.5	1.5
71	Toledo	62.5	3
72	California	61.5	2
73	Hawai’i	60.5	2
74	Connecticut	60	2.5
75	Southern Mississippi	60	2
76	UNLV	60	2.5
77	Utah State	59	2
78	Army	58.5	2.5
79	San Diego State	58.5	2
80	Syracuse	58.5	2.5
81	Miami (Ohio)	58	2.5
82	UTSA	58	3.5
83	New Mexico	57.5	2
84	Temple	57.5	2
85	Fresno State	57	2
86	San Jose State	57	2.5
87	Air Force	56.5	2
88	North Carolina	56.5	2
89	Ohio	56.5	3.5
90	Texas State	56.5	2
91	West Virginia	56	2
92	Boston College	55.5	2
93	Louisiana Tech	54.5	2
94	Troy	54.5	3
95	Western Kentucky	54.5	2.5
96	Stanford	54	1
97	Delaware	53.5	3
98	South Alabama	53.5	2
99	Wyoming	53.5	2
100	Central Michigan	53	2
101	Marshall	53	3
102	Washington State	53	3
103	Kennesaw State	52.5	1.5
104	Oregon State	52.5	3.5
105	Bowling Green	52	2
106	Florida Atlantic	52	2
107	Florida International	52	2
108	Jacksonville State	52	3.5
109	Louisiana-Lafayette	51.5	2
110	Tulsa	51.5	1
111	Colorado State	51	2
112	UAB	51	2.5
113	Arkansas State	50.5	2
114	Georgia Southern	50.5	3.5
115	Western Michigan	50.5	2
116	Rice	50	3
117	Appalachian State	49.5	2
118	Buffalo	48.5	2
119	Oklahoma State	48	2
120	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2
121	Liberty	47	3
122	Nevada	47	1
123	Northern Illinois	47	1
124	Coastal Carolina	46.5	2
125	UTEP	46	2
126	Georgia State	45.5	1
127	Missouri State	44.5	2
128	Louisiana-Monroe	44	2
129	Akron	42.5	2
130	New Mexico State	42.5	2.5
131	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
132	Ball State	41.5	2.5
133	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
134	Charlotte	40.5	1
135	Kent State	39	1
136	Massachusetts	33.5	1

Here are my Week 9 power ratings adjustments:

Up: FIU +1, UTEP +1, East Carolina +1.5, Louisville +1.5, San Jose State +1.5, South Florida +2, Temple +2, UConn +3.5, Georgia Tech +1.5, Marshall +2.5, Pitt +2.5, Central Michigan +1.5, Northwestern +2.5, Vanderbilt +2, Boise State +1.5, UCLA +2.5, Houston +2.5, Army +1, Arkansas +1, Cincinnati +1.5, UAB +3.5, Kentucky +1.5, Washington State +1.5, Notre Dame +2, Arkansas State +1, North Carolina +1, Georgia +1, Coastal Carolina +1.5, James Madison +1.5, Kennesaw State +3, Ball State +2

Down: Liberty -3, Western Kentucky -1, Sam Houston -2.5, Tulsa -1, Miami (FL) -2.5, Utah State -1.5, Cal -1.5, Buffalo -3, West Virginia -2.5, Northern Illinois -2.5, Old Dominion -1.5, South Carolina -2.5, Boston College -4.5, Texas State -4, Syracuse -1.5, LSU -2.5, UNLV -1.5, Maryland -1.5, Tulane -1, Texas A&M -1.5, Oklahoma State -2.5, Texas -1.5, Virginia -2, USC -1.5, Florida State -4, Auburn -1.5, Memphis -3 (Lewis inj, doubtful, -5 if out), UL Monroe -2.5, Georgia Southern -3, Charlotte -3, Rice -2, Nebraska -3.5, Wisconsin -3

Some notes on the biggest movers:

UConn +3.5: A market correction here, as my line for their game this week was pretty far off-market. I kept a lot of my games that were significantly off-market, but I guess I felt compelled to adjust this team.

UAB +3.5: UAB made a QB change and fired Trent Dilfer and beat a very good Memphis team. Tigers QB Brendon Lewis did get hurt, and more on that shortly, but still a huge win for a team that looked so lifeless. Maybe they do a UCLA the rest of the way.

Kennesaw State +3: Market adjustment, though this team has been playing better of late for sure.

Boston College -4.5: I thought I was low enough on the Eagles, but I guess not. I wonder if Bill O’Brien will be fired.

Florida State -4: Jay Norvell got fired on Sunday. Many felt it would be Mike Norvell. It probably will be soon enough. This would have been more if the Seminoles played in light of Tommy Castellanos’ concussion, but they have a bye.

Texas State -4: This has been building for a while. I’m not sure what has happened to GJ Kinne’s team, but they are just not buttoned up this season. Giving up a 40 burger to Marshall, OT or not, is a bad look.

Nebraska -3.5: The Matt Rhule Year 3 bump seems to have evaded Lincoln. Not a good look for him if Penn State was watching closely.

Memphis -3: A bunch of -3s this week, but I’m only highlighting this one. Memphis suffered a very, very, very bad loss to UAB, as they were in the driver’s seat for the G5 CFP berth. Now they run the risk of going into a huge game with South Florida without their starting QB. It looks like I’m light on the adjustments to both teams, or maybe I’m too optimistic about Lewis’ status. He probably won’t play, to be honest.

My Week 9 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/21	Kennesaw State	FIU	-1.5
	Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	-2
10/22	Middle Tennessee	Delaware	-15
	Missouri State	New Mexico State	-0.5
10/23	South Alabama	Georgia State	+7
10/24	North Texas	Charlotte	+23.5
	Cal	Virginia Tech	-4
	Boise State	Nevada	+22.5
10/25	UConn	Rice	+8
	Akron	Buffalo	-8
	Baylor	Cincinnati	-5.5
	UMass	Central Michigan	-21.5
	TCU	West Virginia	+16
	Syracuse	Georgia Tech	-19
	UCLA	Indiana	-25
	Boston College	Louisville	-23
	Stanford	Miami (FL)	-32
	Michigan	Michigan State	+14.5
	Virginia	North Carolina	+10
	NC State	Pitt	-10.5
	Rutgers	Purdue	+4
	SMU	Wake Forest	+5.5
	Louisiana	Troy	-6
	Mississippi	Oklahoma	-2
	Ohio	Eastern Michigan	+7
	Bowling Green	Kent State	+12
	Western Michigan	Miami (OH)	-10
	Ball State	Northern Illinois	-6.5
	Northwestern	Nebraska	-8.5
	Auburn	Arkansas	+1
	App State	Old Dominion	-14.5
	Minnesota	Iowa	-9
	Kansas State	Kansas	-2.5
	UL Monroe	Southern Miss	-18
	Utah State	New Mexico	-0.5
	Colorado	Utah	-17
	Texas	Mississippi State	+8.5
	San Diego State	Fresno State	-0.5
	Texas A&M	LSU	+2.5
	Temple	Tulsa	+5
	Missouri	Vanderbilt	PK
	BYU	Iowa State	+3.5
	Alabama	South Carolina	+15.5
	South Florida	Memphis (w/ Lewis)	+1
	Wisconsin	Oregon	-31
	Oklahoma State	Texas Tech	-40
	Illinois	Washington	-7.5
	Houston	Arizona State	-10
	FAU	Navy	-16
	Toledo	Washington State	+6.5
	Georgia Southern	Arkansas State	-2
	Tennessee	Kentucky	+9
	Colorado State	Wyoming	-4.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Delaware -10 (-15) vs. Middle Tennessee: Delaware keeps putting up impressive passing yardage numbers, even in losses. I’m not sure Middle Tennessee has done anything impressive this season.

Akron +10.5 (+8) vs. Buffalo: Buffalo nearly lost to UMass. Should have lost to UMass. I’m sorry, I know Akron’s bad, but 10.5 or 11s were available on Sunday.

Central Michigan -16 (-21.5) vs. UMass: Central Michigan manhandled Bowling Green and won 27-6 with just five pass attempts. You mean to tell me they won’t push UMass around while running out the clock in the second half?

Miami (OH) -2 (-10) vs. Western Michigan: I’m not sure what happened here, if I’m being honest. The RedHawks are crushing inferior teams and the Broncos are an inferior team. I know they’re 3-0 in conference too and they’ve been playing better since they settled on one QB, but I think this line is way too short.

Southern Miss -12 (-18) vs. UL Monroe: I really do like Bryant Vincent, but over the last two weeks, they’ve been beaten 60-22 by Coastal Carolina, a team I’ve been very low on all year, and Troy. They’re worse than I thought.

BYU -3.5 (+2.5) vs. Iowa State: BYU was a little bit of a wrong-side winner per the box score, but they pulled it out against Utah. Big rest advantage here for Iowa State, but they really haven’t impressed me at all this season. Even their wins, outside of Arizona, have been mid.
Toledo +1.5 (-6) vs. Washington State: Another one where I’m not totally sure what happened. Toledo did lose to Bowling Green and that loss looks really bad in light of last week, but Toledo comfortably won that box score. The travel is obviously super weird for the Rockets. I don’t know. Most of my MAC lines are a little bit odd this week, which is probably indicative of how much the conference stinks.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.