The final full set of games for the month of October of the season is part of Week 9 college football. Hard to believe, but it’s true, as the Saturday after next will be November 1. That means we’re getting closer to those initial College Football Playoff rankings that everybody freaks out about, even though they mean absolutely nothing. Think about it. We just saw Texas Tech and Miami knocked off last week and they would have been highly-rated in any CFP rankings. There’s just too much football to be played.
Nevertheless, one thing to keep in mind this week is the weather. While Sunday and Monday are pretty far out to rely on forecasts for Saturday, we do have weeknight games and we are also starting to get more precipitation, wind, and colder weather in a lot of places as we inch closer to the holidays and the New Year. Those often aren’t accounted for this early in the process and those things will obviously impact totals, but they can impact sides as well, depending on the schemes and personnel for the two teams.
Let’s survey the early Week 9 college football odds, the initial line movement, and some of the big games.
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Week 9 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, October 19 at 6:30 p.m. PT
Kennesaw State (-3, 48.5) at FIU
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
Oh, yeah! We start with the good stuff! Circa Sports tweeted out their opening numbers and FIU was -2 on that graphic, as it didn’t take long for Kennesaw State money to flip that script. Most of the market was -2.5 as of Sunday night, but it was a pretty clear and resounding move to an early-week game that isn’t going to draw a whole lot of interest. Maybe it would otherwise, but the NBA season starts on Tuesday. Which reminds me, become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get your NBA Betting Guide.
Cal at Virginia Tech (-4.5, 49.5)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Friday night’s slate lacks quality, but does have a bit of quantity with three games. Unfortunately, two of them feature favorites of more than three touchdowns. This game does not, though, as Cal travels all the way to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech. Circa hung -3 on this game, which appears to not have been enough. DraftKings actually had 2.5 available and that was scooped very quickly. Now in the “dead zone” between 4 and 6, I do believe that there won’t be much to stop this line from continuing to climb if more money hits the Hokies side. I’m not sure we’ll see much interest in Cal, as they have the long travel and should have lost to a dead fish in North Carolina for their third loss in four games.
UCLA at Indiana (-24.5, 54.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
The Bruins cut down one giant a few weeks ago when they beat Penn State, but the market does not believe the same fate is coming for Indiana. Circa opened this one Hoosiers -21 and the market was sitting -24.5 or -25 by Sunday evening. At DraftKings, the Over took a little bit of a bump from 51.5 to 54.5. It’s all semantics with a line this high, as sportsbooks don’t really rush to mirror the market or anything and there aren’t any valuable numbers in this range that they have to be aware of like they would 3 or 7 with a single-digit line, so it wouldn’t take much to move the number up or down.
SMU (-3.5, 53) at Wake Forest
Saturday, Noon ET
This was one that caught me a little off-guard. Circa opened -5 here and DraftKings -4.5, which were much closer to my personal number of -5.5. Wake Forest has been a “play on” team for me of late, as the Demon Deacons started the season with three games in 13 days and then finally had a chance to catch up a little bit. So, I thought I had a good read on them. We’ll see if the initial move holds here and if it was right. We also saw a move down on the total for this game. It was mostly 53.5 and 53 into Sunday night, but got bet up to 56.5 or so at Fanduel and opened there at DraftKings before coming down.
Mississippi at Oklahoma (-4.5, 52.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
There’s no line move to talk about here, but I do wonder what the discussion was like in the risk rooms for this game. Georgia moved the ball at will on Mississippi, but John Mateer still didn’t look healthy for the Sooners in the win over South Carolina. He didn’t throw the ball very well. Oklahoma’s defense was excellent and has mostly been excellent throughout the season. So, there wasn’t a line move here, but I do think this will be a popular betting game and I am curious to see if this line comes down throughout the week. That’s my guess, given how Mateer looked.
BYU at Iowa State (-2.5, 49.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Another type of game that fascinates me. There were a couple this week that Circa opened pick ‘em – this one and Auburn/Arkansas. I don’t mind sometimes putting up a perplexing game and letting the influential bettors give you an indication of what they think. So far, they think Iowa State is the side here, with the market up to 2.5, but, as I’ll mention in Texas A&M/LSU, we didn’t get to -3, which tells me that it wasn’t super strong interest in BYU. It was worth moving on, but not moving enough to a key number early in the week. Sportsbooks do read and react to betting action, but they also have sides that they want to be aligned with. I’m curious if we see 3 here and if it sticks if/when we do.
NC State at Pitt (-7, 58)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
It has become a weekly occurrence to pick out some soft totals at Fanduel. This one was among the candidates, as the total sat 58 or 58.5 into Sunday evening. Fanduel had this one down at 53.5, so bettors quickly moved on that number to drive it up to where we see it now. Pitt was also -6.5 at Fanduel for a time, getting as high as 8.5 before settling in at 7.5. Most of the rest of the market was holding 7 on the game. Like I said in the previous game, sportsbooks need to be more aware of 3 and 7 as opposed to other numbers. If they can get to a key number early in the week and write some action both ways that’s a good spot to be in.
Texas A&M (-2.5, 49) at LSU
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
LSU has been one of the hardest teams to rate this season. Garrett Nussmeier was among the Heisman favorites this season and we know that the Tigers of Baton Rouge always have talent. But, they are not living up to it at all. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is always a top-10 to top-15 power-rated team because of their talent and they find some way to not live up to it and go 8-4 or something. Circa opened Aggies -1 here and what’s interesting is that this game saw some Texas A&M love, but did not go to 3. Key numbers can serve as points of resistance, but this time, there wasn’t enough money to warrant going there just yet. I think we see a few books throw a +3 on LSU out into the water and see who bites so they know where they’re at for a high-profile, primetime game.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
