Week 9 College Football Predictions
Well, it looks like I spoke too soon when I said that we were finally starting to figure out what teams were in college football. We have no idea who’s actually good outside of Ohio State and Indiana, as pretty much every other team has lost or messed around with an inferior opponent at some point. Miami goes down at the hands of Louisville, Texas Tech loses to Arizona State— albeit with their backup QB—and Ole Miss blew a lead at Georgia.
I think a lot of people would be upset to know that from a power rating standpoint, a team like Notre Dame is still comfortably in the top 5, despite two losses already. Even a team like Utah is still way higher than most would probably expect, even though they got killed at home by Texas Tech and just lost again to BYU. There is a level of parity in the sport we haven’t seen in a long time, which from a betting perspective can be tricky to identify situations to back teams vs when to fade them. Anyway, let’s take a look at the Week 9 slate and see where TSI displays some value on this Monday morning.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Oklahoma (-4.5) vs. Ole Miss, O/U 52.5
I look at this game and I wonder if the perception might be that 1. Oklahoma got killed by Texas, who a lot of people think is a mid-to-bad team this year, and 2. Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes in Athens and is a very good team. Those things aren’t wrong, necessarily, but it makes me feel like this line is being deflated because of it. In contrast, TSI indicates Oklahoma should be about a 6.5-point favorite at home, and over these teams’ last three games, Oklahoma has been 8.5 points better (accounting for home field advantage).
I often mention the angle I like to take the week after teams play Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, etc. The circle-your-calendar type games. It takes a mental toll as much as a physical one, and now the Rebels’ reward for going shot-for-shot with Georgia is they get to travel to Norman to play one of the stingiest defenses in the country and a quarterback who was atop the Heisman race before his hand surgery. That doesn’t sound like fun. I’m going to back the Sooners here because I think they’re the better team at home, and it’s a very difficult spot for Lane Kiffin’s squad—not to mention the coaching carousel rumors surrounding Kiffin.
College Football Pick: Oklahoma -4.5
Nebraska (-7.5) vs. Northwestern, O/U 43.5
I made the mind-numbing mistake of laying a touchdown with the Huskers last week against Minnesota and realized my bet was dead about five minutes into the game. I’m not sure if it’s the Matt Rhule/Penn State distraction or what, but this team does not look great as of late. They lost to Michigan, gave up 27 points to Michigan State, and beat Maryland by 3 (and gave up 31) before losing to Minnesota in embarrassing fashion last week.
Meanwhile, Northwestern is on a hot streak after now beating Penn State and shutting out Purdue in back-to-back games. This handicap is less about the holistic TSI projection (Nebraska -7) and more about the trendline these teams are on. The last three games’ TSI ratings would favor Northwestern by 17 in this game! So, I not only think Northwestern covers the 7.5 but I think they’re a very live ‘dog here.
College Football Pick: Northwestern +7.5
For more Week 9 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 9 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
