Every Monday, I’ll cover the key takeaways from the latest NFL and college football games. This week, there’s nothing to talk about when it comes to the former. We’re all gearing up for that Thursday night showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. That said, college football is the focus after an exciting Week 1 slate. Keep reading for some notes on the Heisman Trophy, a recap of what we saw in Alabama-Florida State and some quick thoughts on what Boise State’s loss to South Florida means for the College Football Playoff. And if you haven’t had enough, our talented team of VSiN hosts and analysts are tackling some of the biggest betting stories coming out of the weekend. So, make sure you check out our live programming for all sorts of high-level analysis.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
Heisman Trophy Update
In my Heisman Trophy story in the 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide, I advised staying away from Arch Manning as the betting favorite in the market. Well, after one game, Manning has gone from +650 to 16-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Manning struggled mightily in a tough road matchup against Ohio State, completing 17 of his 30 passes for 170 yards with a touchdown and a pick. His QBR in the game ended up being 58.0, and it felt like he left a ton of throws on the field.
I’m not going to pile on Manning the way others have. That Matt Patricia-led defense looked awesome, and having to win at The Shoe in your first road start is a tough task. But it’s going to take some big performances out of Manning to win people back over these next couple of weeks, and I’m not sure we’ll see many of them with Steve Sarkisian being a play-caller that really values run-pass balance.
Garrett Nussmeier, who was one of my pre-season plays to win this award, is now the betting favorite after helping LSU take down Clemson at Memorial Stadium (Clemson’s version of “Death Valley”). Nussmeier didn’t do anything spectacular in Week 1, but he threw for 230 yards with a touchdown and no picks. He was getting the ball out quickly when he needed to, and it felt like he stepped up and made big throws whenever they were required. Realistically, just winning that game is a feather in Nussmeier’s cap, as Clemson was billed as one of the best teams in the nation. That’s also a very difficult stadium to win in. So, now that Nussmeier has a huge win on his resume, he could pick up some serious steam in this market with some gaudy passing numbers over the next few weeks. And let me remind you: Nussmeier threw more passes per game than all but one quarterback last year. He’ll have his chances to pick apart some defenses.
The other side of that LSU-Clemson result is that Cade Klubnik, who was +950 heading into Week 1, is now 14-1 at DraftKings after completing only 19 of his 38 passes for 230 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. It was a bad look for Klubnik in another primetime game against an SEC opponent, which shouldn’t be surprising anymore given how he has played in similar spots over the years. But Klubnik has Troy, Georgia Tech and Syracuse as his next three opponents. He’ll probably be back down to 10-1 or so by the time he faces UNC on October 4th, and he’ll have some other chances to impress on big stages later in the year (vs. SMU, vs. Florida State, at Louisville, at South Carolina).
I’ll also note that LaNorris Sellers (16-1 to +900), DJ Lagway (Stayed at 20-1) and Jackson Arnold (35-1 to 22-1) turned some heads over the weekend.
Sellers, one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in college football, was a popular pick to win the Heisman after he lit up opposing defenses towards the end of last season. And he didn’t disappoint in a national television game against Virginia Tech, totaling two touchdowns in what was a grind-it-out game. They were the right types of touchdowns, too. Sellers started the game by capping off a seven-play, 75-yard drive with a 15-yard touchdown run. He also hit track star Nyck Harbor with a bomb down the field for a 64-yard touchdown that broke the game open and gave the Gamecocks a 24-11 lead midway through the fourth. That score ended up holding. Sellers also had some eye-popping runs for first downs late in that fourth quarter, shrugging off tacklers to keep the chains moving and prevent Virginia Tech from getting more chances to cut into the lead.
Lagway didn’t play a tough opponent, as Florida was up against Long Island University. However, after a summer in which people speculated about the health of his shoulder, it was nice to see the sophomore go 15 for 18 with three touchdowns and no picks. Lagway isn’t going to win over any voters with that performance, but he looks like he’s ready to go as the Gators gear up for more difficult challenges.
Arnold, who flamed out at Oklahoma, looked like a beast in his first game in Hugh Freeze’s offense. Taking on a Baylor team that many believe can contend in the Big 12, Arnold went 11 for 17 with 108 yards, no touchdowns and no picks as a passer. Not too impressive, right? But he also rushed for 137 yards and two scores, looking a little like Cam Newton in those Auburn colors. Suddenly, it’s hard not to think about Arnold as a darkhorse in this market. The Tigers will probably need to win eight or nine regular-season games in order for him to be in the conversation, but that doesn’t seem out of the question after seeing Auburn pass a big test in Week 1.
As a bit of a sicko, I’d also like to mention that cornerback Smith Snowden, who I briefly shouted out in my pre-season Heisman story, played a bigger role on offense than anybody expected in Week 1. Kyle Whittingham said that he’d like to see his star corner play some offense this year, but Snowden led the Utes with six catches for 51 yards as a receiver, and he also rushed three times for 15 yards and a touchdown in a blowout win over UCLA. Snowden isn’t currently on the DraftKings oddsboard, but it’ll be interesting to see what he looks like over the next couple of weeks. The Travis Hunter Effect could push him into the conversation. People love a two-way contributor.
DeBoer on the Floor; Alabama upset by Florida State
One of the most cringeworthy episodes of Succession saw Logan Roy forcing his family and co-workers to play “Boar on the Floor” at a company retreat. Logan made people crawl around on all fours, acting like pigs and fighting for sausages. The goal of the game was to figure out who was betraying the company with media leaks. The entire thing was humiliating for everybody involved, and it’s somehow the first thing I thought of when thinking about Alabama’s 14-point loss to Florida State.
I did pick Florida State in that game, taking them to cover the actual line (+14) and an alternate line (+8.5 at +142 odds). I also sprinkled the moneyline at +425. However, I’d be lying if I said I saw a double-digit win coming. In my mind, the most realistic outcome was a one-score Alabama win — boy, was I wrong.
The Seminoles outclassed and outmuscled the Crimson Tide on both sides of the ball. But it was the running game that really stood out. After a year in which Florida State’s offensive line was a disaster, the group up front pushed a big Alabama defensive line around and the Noles ran all over Kane Wommack’s defense. Florida State rushed for 236 yards in the game, and the team had a Rush EPA per play of 0.15, according to Game On Paper. That would have been a top-15 mark in the country last year. The running game also paved the way for some big plays over the top in the passing game. The end result was a 13% Explosive Play Rate, which put Florida State in the 92nd percentile in Week 1. Suddenly, a lot of people are questioning Wommack’s three-man fronts in obvious passing situations — among other things. It’s hard to blame them.
Not only did the Seminoles get whatever they wanted offensively, but Ty Simpson looked shaky as a passer — especially on the move. Ryan Williams also struggled with drops, which was unexpected after his dynamite freshman season.
Of course, there’s a chance Florida State is just flat-out awesome. In fact, that was my big takeaway from the game, and I liked the Noles to be a sneaky ACC contender before the season. But there’s no denying things are starting to look a little questionable in Tuscaloosa.
Nick Saban coached Alabama from 2007 to 2023 and the Tide only lost as favorites of at least 14 points three times in 139 games. Alabama has four losses as a favorite of 14 or more in 14 games with DeBoer on the sidelines. Things are going to need to change, and they’re going to need to change fast.
Group of Five Hope
With Boise State getting absolutely smacked by South Florida in a 34-7 loss on Thursday, the Group of Five College Football Playoff spot should be fun to monitor this year. Even with Ashton Jeanty now playing for the Raiders in VSiN’s backyard, there was a lot of love for the Broncos to emerge as the best of the rest again. However, a lopsided loss to another Group of Five contender could be a pretty big bump in the road for Spencer Danielson’s squad.
Let’s see how South Florida looks this weekend. Bryum Brown will be looking to out-gun Lagway when the Bulls take on the Gators in Gainesville this weekend. South Florida then takes on Miami in Week 3. If the Bulls somehow find a way to steal one of these next two games, there’s going to be a lot of noise about them being included in the field heading into conference play.
Either way, with Boise taking it on the chin to start the season, the better Group of Five programs have to be perking up a bit.
