College Football Conference Championship Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 15 college football conference championship best bets:
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State Over 60
Conference USA Championship
Both of these programs were long shots to win Conference USA to begin the season as Jacksonville State was 25/1 and Kennesaw State was 50/1. Charles Kelly took over for Rich Rodriguez, and his Gamecocks now have the opportunity to go back-to-back as CUSA Champions. Standing in their way is Kennesaw State who is led by another first-year head coach Jerry Mack.
These teams met back on November 15th with Jacksonville State prevailing at home, 35-26. The Gamecocks ran for 256 yards in that victory.
The box score in the first meeting should have indicated a Kennesaw State win considering that the Owls gained 579 yards to Jacksonville State’s 451 and had the first downs edge 32 to 18. However, Kennesaw committed three red-zone turnovers (four overall; -4 turnover margin) and missed a field goal.
Both these teams combined for over 1000 yards and 61 points in the first meeting, and it should have been substantially higher.
It will be in the low 40s come kickoff time, but there is not any inclement weather in the forecast.
Tulane vs. North Texas Under 33 1st Half
American Athletic Conference Championship
The Group of 5 spot in the College Football Playoff is likely on the line here between these two teams, although keep an eye on the Sun Belt Championship Game with James Madison making its first appearance in the CFP rankings at No. 25 and not too far behind No. 20 Tulane and No. 24 North Texas.
North Texas led the nation in both total offense (511.8 ypg) and scoring offense (46.8 ppg), which is a major reason why Mean Green head coach Eric Morris, part of the late Mike Leach’s coaching tree, was going to be an even hotter candidate on the coaching carousel before Oklahoma State snagged him.
Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall will soon be off to attempt to resurrect the Florida Gators. Sumrall has the Green Wave in the AAC Championship Game for the second consecutive season. Last year, they had to travel to face Army at West Point, a 35-14 loss, but this time Tulane gets to host the title game.
The total has risen close to three points from its opener, but I foresee a slower scoring start here despite the potency of North Texas’s offense in particular. For one, there is extra added pressure with so much on the line for these two teams, and that can often lead to a bit of nervous energy early. There is also the matter of Tulane’s offense, which does tend to settle in the red zone as they have kicked 16 field goals there so far this season. Furthermore, rain is expected leading up to and throughout the game in New Orleans, so there could be some slippery hands and several footballs being put on the ground to stifle drives.
The scoring should pick up gradually throughout the game, but the recipe for a slow start to the scoring, so enjoy a nice bowl of jambalaya and settle in for this one.
Indiana +4.5 vs. Ohio State
Big Ten Championship
No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the main event of Conference Championship Weekend.
No. 1 Ohio State is going for its 40th Big Ten Championship and first since 2020. As for No. 2 Indiana? A win here would mark only its 3rd Big Ten Championship in program history and its first since 1967.
The defending national champion Buckeyes have won 16 in a row dating back to last year’s CFP. They are also the best ATS team this year with a 10-1-1 mark.
So why is the market coming in on the Hoosiers this week? It is because these two teams are almost dead even statistically. Frequent VSiN guest Parker Fleming (@statsofwar on X) provided a statistical breakdown of this game here:
As you can see, there is little separation between these two clubs when you look past the names and the history and look at the season-long data.
The unit that will certainly get the most headlines here is the Ohio State defense and deservedly so. Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day had to replace Jim Knowles as DC after he left for Penn State. Matt Patricia took over the job with a nearly all-new defensive line, and his group has not missed a beat. Having only been on the field for an astonishingly low 647 snaps in 12 games, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in passing defense (121.3 ypg), No. 1 in total defense (203 ypg), and No. 1 in scoring defense (7.8 ppg). However, right behind them are the Hoosiers at No. 2 scoring defense (10.9 ppg), No. 2 rushing defense (79.3 ypg), and No. 4 total defense (251.8 ypg).
These are the best defenses, and offense for that matter, that either team will face all season.
The slight edge for Indiana is that they have been battle-tested on the road against two Top 10 defenses (Oregon and Iowa) and have had to win close games late (at Iowa, at Penn State). Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have never been challenged all season, which in part is a testament to how good they are. Nevertheless, if this is a close game late, we have seen Fernando Mendoza have to deliver in the clutch when the pressure is on and “Heismandoza” has done so. Julian Sayin certainly has all the five-star accolades and great pedigree, but how will the redshirt freshman do in a tight, pressure-packed situation?
All offseason and even during the season, Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has spoken about how the games vs. Ohio State and Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff were likely too big for the Hoosiers. They had to learn hard lessons from those games, and they were not ready to compete with those two teams. This year seems different, though, with not only a legitimate Heisman candidate at QB but being able to win with toughness (at Iowa, at Oregon) and being better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Those are the main differences between an 11-2 Indiana team in 2024, which to date was the best team in school history, and this year’s 12-0 group that are one of the few teams that can legitimately win the national championship.
Mendoza probably said it best when describing this Hoosiers team after last week’s 56-3 victory over Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket Game. Referring to the speech Pat Coogan gave the locker room, Mendoza said, “He was like, ‘look at us, a bunch of misfits, guys from FCS, G5, JMU coming up, bunch of transfers, rejects that got replaced at their old school, now we have a chance to go 12-0.”
This is the togetherness that this Indiana team has. When you go player by player, of course, Ohio State has the more talented team, but Indiana has talent as well and a good amount of future pros in its own right. The Hoosiers have the proverbial chips on their shoulders and are as motivated as anyone to make history. The victory at Oregon converted a sizable amount of doubters from last season, but a victory here in Indianapolis will eliminate all the doubters that Indiana Football is here to stay amongst the college football elite.
And finally. You really didn’t think I was going to bet against Indiana here, did you?
Best of the Rest
Duke/Virginia Over 57.5 (ACC Championship Game)
BYU Team Total Under 19.5 (Big XII Championship Game)
For more college football conference championship best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Conference Championship hub, exclusively on VSiN.
