College Football Playoff First Round Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my College Football Playoff First Round best bets:
Miami/Texas A&M Under 24 1st Half
These two teams last met in 2023, with Miami holding serve at home, 48-33, to pay back the Aggies for a 17-9 loss at Kyle Field the year prior.
Both clubs bring in Top 20 national defenses (Miami 11th; Texas A&M 19th). The Hurricanes rank 6th overall in scoring defense, only allowing 13.8 ppg. The Aggies are tied with fellow CFP participant Oklahoma with 41 sacks to lead FBS and are second nationally (behind the Sooners) in Tackles For Loss.
The Hurricanes and the Aggies both rank inside the Top 10 nationally for Defensive Success Rate, with Texas A&M ranking No. 1 in 3rd/4th Down Defensive Success Rate (Miami 9th).
Another factor for a potentially lower-scoring game, and especially a lower-scoring star,t is the weather on Saturday morning/afternoon in College Station. The AccuWeather forecast indicates gusty winds in the high teens.
Both teams could be a bit more run-heavy to counteract the speedy pass rushers that they are facing.
Ole Miss -9.5 (-120) 1st Half vs. Tulane
These teams met on September 20th at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, with the Rebels winning 45-10 and easily covering as 11.5-point favorites. Ole Miss outgained Tulane 548 to 282 and the Green Wave could only muster 104 yards passing (Jake Retzlaff 5-for-17, 56 yards, Brendan Sullivan 5-for-12, 48 yards).
Much has changed for the two programs as both will be playing under new coaches next year, but only one under a new coach for this one, as Ole Miss (Pete Golding) has its first game since Lane Kiffin bailed on them for LSU. Jon Sumrall will leave for Florida after Tulane’s CFP run concludes.
This will be an extra emotional game for both sides as Ole Miss will be playing in front of the most supportive crowd they could possibly have since Kiffin left. On the Tulane side, there is “revenge” but also Coach Sumrall coaching the day after announcing the passing of his father.
Emotion might only be able to carry Tulane so far, as the Green Wave are the weakest team of the 12 in the CFP when you look at the numbers. They only rank 40th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and are just 94th in Defensive Success Rate.
The Rebels likely get off to a good start here and potentially coast in the second half, knowing that they have Georgia on deck in the Sugar Bowl, which is a reason for my reluctance to lay the full game price here with Ole Miss.
James Madison +21 at Oregon
Outside of the top four seeds, and perhaps even more so than a couple of those top four seeds, Oregon is getting a lot of love from the college football punditry in terms of picks or predictions to win the National Championship. To be fair, the Ducks have looked to be on a mission since their October 11th home loss to now No. 1 Indiana. Iowa gave them a bit of a scare, but Oregon has rolled through the rest of its competition.
One of the main topics of discussion leading into the CFP was the exclusion of Notre Dame and the inclusion of two Group of 5 teams. However, James Madison is the best Group of 5 team and the numbers show it.
The Dukes rank No. 1 nationally in Defensive Success Rate and are 6th in both EPA (Expected Points Added) per Rush and in 3rd/4th Down Success Rate.
Oregon is Oregon and they never lack top-end athletes, but James Madison has continued its winning culture from the days of Curt Cignetti (he wins, Google him) with Bob Chesney, soon heading to UCLA, and an experienced group.
James Madison likely has its struggles offensively against Oregon’s defense (fourth in Total Defense), but the Dukes defense profiles like a Power 4 group that ranked second in the nation for Total Defense and can keep this at least somewhat competitive.
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