College Football Playoff National Championship Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
The Indiana Hoosiers began the season at 100/1 on BetMGM to win the College Football Playoff National Championship. Miami was 35/1 at the start of the year, so we are guaranteed to have a long shot champion. Indiana also has the opportunity to become the first college football team to go 16-0 in a season since Yale in 1894! If the Hoosiers are victorious, Indiana University will not only have the last unbeaten college football national championship team, but also the last unbeaten college basketball national championship team, as this year is the 50th anniversary of the 1976 team coached by Bob Knight.
Although not ranked in the No. 1 spot until the second week of December, you can make a strong argument that Indiana has been the best team in college football since mid-October after winning at Oregon. Many in the sports media world cannot seem to wrap their heads around the fact that Indiana is No. 1 in the sport, and it is not a fluke either.
Even as Indiana began its run towards this game, many were still moving the goalposts. After the Big Ten Championship victory over Ohio State, it was, “Well, Ohio State didn’t take the game seriously enough.” After the Rose Bowl crushing of Alabama, it was, “Well, this wasn’t the usual Alabama.” Even after the Peach Bowl pasting of Oregon, it was “Well, Indiana has a bunch of older players, and they know the other teams’ plays and are cheating.” Did you ever imagine that the program that was the all-time losing program in FBS would be accused of cheating?!?!
The current spread in the market is Indiana -8.5. Some will say that is disrespect of Miami, but it is more of Indiana finally getting respect in the marketplace and priced appropriately.
I did not lay the number here, although I believe the HOO-HOO-HOO-HOOSIERS will finish the job on Monday night. I am more interested in the total here.
The Hoosiers have scored 38 and 56 points in their two CFP bowl games and are the No. 2 scoring offense (42.6 ppg) in the nation. That number is even more astonishing when you consider that they rank just 112th in pace. This is not an offense that goes at a faster tempo very often. Miami, for their part, is 71st in pace. We saw a little bit of that in the Hurricanes’ Fiesta Bowl victory over Ole Miss. Miami’s first drive was 13 plays for 44 yards in 7:21, and it resulted in a field goal. Miami also had three other drives in that game that lasted 13 plays or longer. They want to shorten the game and will likely take the same approach here.
Both of these clubs are highly effective in defending “the red area,” as Indiana coach Curt Cignetti calls it. Indiana has only given up nine touchdowns in 26 opposing red zone attempts. Miami has only given up 17 touchdowns out of 32. These teams have a strong potential to settle for field goals or have to go on 4th and longer situations more often than not. Miami K Carter Davis has missed four kicks in the postseason, but he is kicking in his home stadium, where he is 7-for-8 on FG attempts. Indiana’s Nico Radicic is 16-for-18 on his FG attempts.
Miami’s rushing attack ranks 87th in success rate over the course of the season, as the Hurricanes average 4.25 yards/carry (76th nationally). However, the Hurricanes run with serious volume (24th-most rushes nationally) and will stay committed to the run. Indiana is 6th in rush success rate and has run the ball 90 times for 400 yards (granted with big leads) in its two CFP games. Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza rightfully gets the headlines with eight touchdown passes and only five incompletions combined in the two playoff games, but the Indiana running game has been the untold story.
During the CFP, the Hurricanes, just like in the regular season, get the majority of its passing yardage from YAC (yards after catch). YAC has represented 53.6% of Miami’s passing yardage (236-of-440 yards). That’s 440 yards in three games (147 passing yards/game). They do not seem to let Carson Beck throw down the field as often, considering he only completes about 52.5% of his passes of nine yards or more.
No one runs more screen plays than Miami (118 total this season). However, Indiana’s defense is one of the better tackling teams in the country and will be prepared for them. Both sides should have some familiarity here as Miami DC Corey Hetherman served in the same role under Cignetti at James Madison from 2019-2021. Current Indiana DC Bryant Haines was the co-DC and LB coach with Hetherman on that same JMU staff.
Miami, No. 3 in sack rate, should also be able to get some pressure on Mendoza, particularly attacking the right side of the Indiana OL.
Furthermore, this is the National Championship Game with one team attempting to finish off an incredible and unprecedented season to go 16-0 while the other is playing in its home stadium. There should be some jitters and nervous energy early for both squads, leading to slow starts.
I believe Indiana will close the deal as Curt Cignetti goes to a remarkable 27-2 for his two seasons in Bloomington as Cignetti becomes Cig-NATTY.
That said, my play here is the Under.
College Football Playoff National Championship Best Bets:
Miami/Indiana Under 23.5 First Half
Miami/Indiana Under 47.5
From a prop standpoint, there is one that has caught my eye early.
Miami’s defense loves to get pressure up front (No. 3 sack rate), and Hetherman will send blitzes against Mendoza. Miami blitzes at the 7th-highest rate in the country; however, that’s a ‘pick your poison’ against the Heisman winner as Fernando has graded fourth-best among FBS QBs against the blitz, completing 71% of his passes (8th nationally) at 9.8 yards/attempt (3rd) with 25 TDs (1st) and a 3.4% turnover-worthy play rate (60th). In the postseason alone, Mendoza has been blitzed on 51% of dropbacks, and he’s completed 80% of his passes at 12.9 yards/attempt with 6 TDs and 1 turnover-worthy play (2.7% rate).
Nevertheless, Miami runs zone coverage at a high rate. The headliners for the Hoosiers at receiver are Elijah Sarratt, known as “Waffle House” because he’s open 24/7, Omar Cooper Jr, who made the miraculous catch in the back of the end zone vs. Penn State to keep Indiana undefeated, and the late season revelation Charlie Becker, “Charlie B from Nashville, Tennessee” as Gus Johnson referred to him as ad nauseam. All three of these guys make tough, contested catches all over the field.
However, Indiana’s fourth receiver E.J. Williams, who began his career at Clemson and has battled numerous injuries in his career, could get a little more run here against the Miami zone coverage. Williams leads the team with 33 zone targets, which is 70% of his targets this season. Mendoza will have to get rid of the ball a little quicker with Rueben Bain and Ahkeem Mesidor coming off the edges. That should benefit Williams. His number is lower with only two catches for 22 yards in the two CFP games (scored vs. Oregon). Buy low here on Williams.
E.J. Williams 13+ Receiving Yards (-118)
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