College Football Playoff Semifinals Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my College Football Playoff Semifinals best bets:
Ole Miss (+3.5) vs. Miami (FL)
Fiesta Bowl
Despite beginning the season as the all-time losingest program in FBS, Indiana may not be the “underdog story” of the College Football Playoff. That distinction belongs to Ole Miss. The Rebels were abandoned by Lane Kiffin before the beginning of the CFP, but new head coach Pete Golding and his staff of musical chairs have Ole Miss on the brink of a spot in the National Championship Game.
Miami stands in their way as the Hurricanes, led by a ferocious pass rush (21 sacks in the last four games), have held Texas A&M and Ohio State to a combined 17 points. However, the Miami offense is going to need to do more here as Ole Miss can hit for explosive plays in a hurry. Just ask Georgia as the Bulldogs gave up 37 points and 473 yards in the Sugar Bowl to the Rebels.
Carson Beck has not been asked to do much as he is 33/46 for just 241 yards in the Canes’ two playoff games. He will be asked for more here to keep up with Trinidad Chambliss, who has just short of 700 yards of total offense in his two playoff games for Hoddy Toddy. The two-time DII national champion QB at Ferris State was pressured 12 times by the Georgia defense and was not sacked once.
Expect Ole Miss to run tempo in order to wear down the Miami defensive line as the Hurricanes front did start to show some fatigue late in their Cotton Bowl upset of Ohio State.
Even SEC homer Paul Finebaum has written off his conference. Not so fast here. It is not one of the usual suspects like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, or Texas remaining, but Ole Miss has carried the “It Just Means More” banner proudly and they can hoist it one more time here.
Indiana (-170 ML) vs. Oregon
Peach Bowl
One lone unbeaten team remains in this college football season. Last year, it was Oregon before Ohio State went duck hunting in the Rose Bowl. This year, it’s Indiana as the Hoosiers keep converting more and more doubters each time they take the field. If you use Google, you will find that Curt Cignetti is now 25-2 as the Indiana head coach. The Hoosiers won their first bowl game since the 1991 Copper Bowl with a resounding 38-3 thrashing of Alabama. Now Indiana gets a rematch with Oregon, who had its 18-game home winning streak ended by the Hoosiers back on October 11.
Indiana had a 326-267-yard edge in Autzen Stadium and held the Ducks to just 13 points as the Hoosiers won 30-20 as 7-point underdogs. However, save for a bit of a defensive lapse in the second half of the opening round victory over James Madison, Dan Lanning’s group has been on a mission with six straight victories, including a 23-0 shutout of Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, where the Red Raiders mustered just 215 yards of total offense.
In the first meeting between these two, Indiana, with 42 sacks on the season, sacked Oregon QB Dante Moore six times, and he was just 4-for-13 on passes thrown more than 7 yards downfield. The running game was not all that much better for the Ducks as they ran for just 116 yards, even with the sack yardage not being deducted. Now Oregon only has two healthy running backs, with Jordon Davison being ruled out with a broken clavicle and Jayden Limar entering the transfer portal this week. Moore has been shaky against the better defenses (Indiana, Oregon, and Texas Tech) with just one touchdown pass total in those three games to go along with four interceptions.
As for Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, he does not seem to make mistakes, save for the pick-six he did throw against these Ducks. However, Mendoza has just six interceptions on the season against 36 touchdown passes, including three in the Rose Bowl to three different receivers.
This game will certainly be a war and will likely be close. Nevertheless, Indiana has passed every test this season, and there are still some who cannot wrap their heads around the fact that Indiana, yes Indiana, is the best team in college football and proves it one more time in HotLanta on Friday night.
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