Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 11 college football best bets:
Temple +7 at Army
Two teams off disparate results meet up here as Temple was dominated at home 45-14 by East Carolina in a game where the Owls gave up over 600 yards. Meanwhile, Army won on a last-second field goal, 20-17, at rival Air Force, where the Black Knights were +3 in turnover margin.
This week, Army comes home to Michie Stadium, where they are 0-3 ATS and just 1-2 SU.
Army has not been a good home favorite under Jeff Monken, going just 13-22-1 ATS vs. FBS opponents.
Temple has already faced a similar offense, having taken on Navy back on October 11. The Owls had the lead in the fourth quarter until the Midshipmen scored with :39 left and converted a two-pointer to win 32-31.
With games remaining vs. Tulane and at North Texas and a bye next week, this is likely Temple’s best chance to get its sixth victory and clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019. Temple should bring its best effort here off arguably its poorest performance of the season.
Boston College +11 vs. SMU
SMU upset Miami at home last week and potentially ended the Hurricanes CFP hopes or at least put them in serious jeopardy. That victory followed head coach Rhett Lashlee having his contract extended for two more years (through 2032) as SMU attempts to keep him from taking the current vacancy at his alma mater Arkansas.
So, the Mustangs got some revenge three weeks ago for last year’s ACC Championship Game loss to Clemson, then were a little flat at Wake Forest and lost on a last-second field goal and beat Miami last week. Now they travel to face a 1-8 Boston College team that is certainly wearing a great deal of frustration on its sleeve, or at least head coach Bill O’Brien certainly is.
This week marks the annual “Red Bandana Game” as Boston College honors Welles Crowther (a 1999 BC graduate), who died while saving as many as 12 individuals in the South Tower of the World Trade Center during the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Crowther was wearing a red bandana at the time of his heroic efforts.
Despite the poor season, BC is still competing and fighting as the Eagles have covered their last two games at Louisville and vs. Notre Dame last week.
Penn State +15 vs. Indiana
This Indiana alum was hoping to see the Hoosiers ranked No. 1 in the initial CFP Rankings on Tuesday, but it was not meant to be as the “Indiana Twosiers” came in at No. 2 behind Ohio State. A 1 vs. 2 matchup in the Big Ten Championship Game keeps moving from a possibility to a probability each week. First things first for Indiana is a second straight road game at Penn State.
No one could have even imagined that Penn State would be an underdog at home to Indiana at the beginning of the season. Somewhere between a 3 to 7-point favorite? Certainly? But an over two-touchdown underdog? No way.
However, it is probably deserved with Penn State already sitting 3-5 and having fired James Franklin and losing QB Drew Allar for the season.
Allar’s replacement, freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer, had to start his career with road starts at Iowa and at Ohio State, and it does not get any easier vs. Indiana, but at least he is starting at home for the first time in front of a supportive Beaver Stadium crowd.
The Nittany Lions did hang in for a half last week in Columbus before Ohio State put them away.
Indiana rolled 55-10 at Maryland, but the Hoosiers did not exactly come out unscathed as OL Drew Evans, WR Elijah Sarratt, and LB Aiden Fisher all left the game with various injuries.
Penn State has a chance to shorten the game with its running attack led by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
This is likely Indiana’s final test (only vs. Wisconsin and at Purdue remaining) before a clash with the Buckeyes in Indianapolis, but this will be more of a test than most think.
Miami (FL) -28.5 vs. Syracuse
With the loss at SMU last week, Miami dropped to No. 18 in the CFP Rankings and six teams (Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU, and Duke) currently sit above the Hurricanes in the ACC standings. So, “The U” likely needs some typical ACC chaos to happen in front and then needs to win the final four games for any possibility of going to the ACC Championship Game.
Fortunately for Miami, they get a Syracuse team that has lost five games in a row and is grasping at straws to drink in any positive momentum.
Earlier this week, Orange head coach Fran Brown announced several staff changes:
- WR coach Myles White is no longer with the program.
- QC/Offensive Specialist Josh Gattis is now coaching the receivers in addition to being the Passing Game Coordinator.
- Nunzio Campanile and Michael Johnson Sr are swapping roles with Campanile now coaching tight ends and Johnson moving to QB coach.
With Syracuse only scoring six offensive touchdowns in the last five games, you can certainly see why changes were made. Rickie Collins will be back at starting QB after the experiment with freshman Joe Filardi, a scholarship lacrosse player at Syracuse, was a complete disaster last week in a 27-10 loss to North Carolina. Nevertheless, the Syracuse offense has only scored 43 points in Collins’ four starts. In addition, a completely shuffled offensive line will have to protect against one of the better defensive lines in the country.
Mario Cristobal has not been great in the favorite role during his coaching tenure at Miami, but this could be payback time for an angry Hurricanes bunch that got upset last year at Syracuse.
Iowa +6.5 vs. Oregon
Perhaps two teams that are both fighting for a little respect here. Oregon is currently No. 9 in the CFP Rankings, but with wins over FCS Montana State, Oklahoma State, at Northwestern, vs. Oregon State, at Penn State, at Rutgers, and vs. Wisconsin, the question is being asked of who they have actually beaten?
On the other side, Iowa was ranked No. 20 in the CFP Rankings but are still unranked in the AP Poll.
As has been typical for the Hawkeyes, the offense is not exactly a juggernaut. Only six teams in the Power 4 average fewer yards per game than Iowa. However, Iowa’s defense is typically very good under Kirk Ferentz and longtime DC Phil Parker, but this year it has been elite. Iowa currently ranks 4th nationally in scoring defense (13.1 ppg) and 3rd in total defense (234.9 ypg). The Hawkeyes have proven that they can neutralize elite offenses, having held Indiana, the No. 1 scoring offense (46.4 ppg) in America, to just 20 points and only 337 yards, almost 170 below its season average.
Iowa also has great special teams units, and they might be the best of the bunch this season.
Wake Forest +7 at Virginia
Off the last-second upset victory over SMU, Wake Forest was heading into a buzzsaw last week as Florida State, off four straight defeats and a bye week, was waiting to take out its disappointment on someone. The Seminoles did just that in a 42-7 shellacking of Wake.
Now Wake takes to the road again to face 8-1 Virginia, who is the surprise of the ACC and the only team unbeaten in ACC conference play.
Bill Connelly of ESPN puts Virginia’s expected wins at 5.2 and somehow this team has 8!
The Cavaliers have been fortunate all season. They defeated Florida State in 2OT despite being outgained by over 70 yards. Then, they won at Louisville by 3 in OT courtesy of two defensive TDs and were outgained by almost 150 yards. At North Carolina, the Cavaliers won by 1 in OT despite being outgained by around 100 yards. UVA also beat Washington State by 2, courtesy of a late safety. Last week, they won and covered at Cal with a late pick-six.
Virginia has been improved with North Texas transfer Chandler Morris at QB, but this team has been lucky all season and now is finally getting some national attention and love. That is often the kiss of death for a team and program that has not been in the spotlight for a long time.
LSU +10 at Alabama
They are looking for a coach in Baton Rouge as Brian Kelly was fired two weeks ago after getting beaten down at home by Texas A&M. Everyone is putting his or her two cents in on who it should be, including the Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry. That decision will come down the line. For the next four games, the interim coach is Frank Wilson. Wilson, a New Orleans native, served on Les Miles’ LSU staff from 2010-15 and won numerous awards for his recruiting prowess. Since 2022, he has served as Associate Head Coach.
There is a sentiment around the LSU program that the players were not exactly despondent to see Kelly go. More sentiment indicates that the Tigers are going to play hard for the well-liked Wilson. Plus, it is Alabama week after all.
Alabama did go through a gauntlet in late September and all October having to face four straight ranked teams (at Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt, at Missouri, vs. Tennessee). Nevertheless, the Tide rolled over them all and then barely escaped at disappointing South Carolina.
Last week, we saw Billy Gonzales, who served on three Florida staffs, get his Gators to cover (and it was a deserved cover for Florida despite needing Georgia QB Gunner Stockton to go down at the 1-yard line), and the fired coach bumps have gone 7-2 ATS this season with the Florida cover. Wilson should be able to make it 8-2 ATS for what is now LSU’s Super Bowl.
Quick Hits
Auburn +7 -120 at Vanderbilt
DJ Durkin, the Auburn defensive coordinator, will still call the defense while serving as interim coach for Auburn after Hugh Freeze was let go following a 10-3 defeat vs. Kentucky last week.
Vanderbilt rallied to push or even cover depending on your number at Texas last week, but they were down 34-10 in the 4th.
At No. 16 in the CFP, it is still not over for Vanderbilt, but this is a team still not used to laying this type of number in conference play.
Best of the Rest
Texas Tech -10 vs. BYU
Connecticut +9.5 vs. Duke
Purdue +30 vs. Ohio State
Washington/Wisconsin Under 45
Wake Forest/Virginia Under 48
For more college football Week 11 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 11 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
