Week 12 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 12 college football best bets:
Air Force +7.5 at Connecticut
UConn’s upset overtime victory over Duke last week clinched bowl eligibility and Jim Mora Jr.’s Huskies will play a bowl game in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2010. Last week was UConn’s largest crowd at Rentschler Field (38,106) since 2013.
This week, the Huskies have to put its accomplishment in the rearview mirror as Air Force pays a visit, and the Falcons must win out to become bowl eligible.
On the surface, this looks like a mismatch for the UConn offense led by QB Joe Fagnano, who ranks second in the nation for passing yards (2,840 yards) and has thrown 25 TD passes vs. 0 INT! That’s right, zero interceptions. Fagnano is the only full-season starting QB in FBS who has yet to throw a pick. Now, he gets to take on an Air Force pass defense that allows the third most yards through the air (288.1 ypg).
Air Force won 26-16 at San Jose State last week but were outgained by 133 yards and were +3 in the turnover battle.
While the Falcons are just 3-6, their last three losses (at Navy, at UNLV, vs. Army) were all by just three points.
UConn did face the option three weeks ago at Rice. However, it did not go very well as Rice upset the Huskies 37-34 in 2 OT as 10-point home underdogs as UConn allowed 300 yards on the ground.
This could be a tough “get up” spot for UConn having already gained bowl eligibility, plus playing on Senior Day, which is always emotional.
Michigan State +7.5 vs. Penn State
We thought that Indiana was perhaps going to get a scare at Penn State last week. We just did not know how scary it would get.
Fernando Mendoza led the Hoosiers’ offense in the two-minute drill with no timeouts left, and despite being sacked on first down, Indiana was able to score with 0:41 left and hang on for the victory.
The question is how does Penn State recover from that heartbreaker of having the No. 2 team in America beaten only to lose on that incredible toe tap?
The Nittany Lions now go on the road to face Michigan State in the Land-Grant Trophy game.
Both teams are 3-6 and needing miracles for bowl eligibility, but Michigan State is off a bye week, and before its week off, the Spartans’ offense arguably looked the best it has all season with Alessio Milivojevic getting his first start at QB (20-for-28, 311 yards, TD) although he was sacked seven times.
Michigan State also got the news on Wednesday that the program had to vacate all 14 of its wins from the 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons due to Mel Tucker (and the first year of Jonathan Smith) playing three ineligible players. The program received three years of probation in addition to the penalties involving the vacated wins.
Jonathan Smith has gone 31-21 ATS (59.6%) as an underdog, including 5-0 this season. His Spartans have had extra time to prepare and likely are the more motivated team, considering the news it received from the NCAA this week.
Central Florida +24 at Texas Tech
Texas Tech proved it was the team to beat in the Big XII with a dominant 29-7 victory over an undefeated BYU team.
The Red Raiders are now in the driver’s seat at 6-1 in conference play, and with games vs. UCF and at West Virginia (two of the bottom four in the conference) remaining, making the Big XII Championship Game looks to be almost a fait accompli.
Texas Tech’s top 10 national defense has carried much of the load for this team largely due to the injuries at QB. Regular starter Behren Morton returned two weeks ago vs. Kansas State but the last two games show that he is still not quite 100 percent still playing with the hairline fracture in his fibula.
11/1 at Kansas State: 21/32 249 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, sacked twice
11/8 vs. BYU: 17/32 219 yards, 1 TD, sacked 4 times
Morton’s mobility is limited with the injury, and backup Will Hammond is also out with a knee injury. They are not going to want to move Morton much out of the pocket in order to protect him a little bit, so that does limit Tech’s game plan a bit.
UCF was only getting +3 at Baylor two weeks ago. Granted, they were blown out 30-3 in that one, but this line looks a tad inflated with Texas Tech’s big victory last week.
North Carolina +6.5 at Wake Forest
After a 38-10 home blowout vs. Clemson that dropped them to 2-3, the Tar Heels looked to be bottoming out, and a multitude of stories were coming out regarding the dysfunction within the program in Bill Belichick’s first season.
Since all of the bad publicity around the program, North Carolina has only gone 2-2 but has covered four straight games. They lost by 3 at Cal, lost by one in OT vs. Virginia (a game where the Heels were the better team), and then won at Syracuse and vs. Stanford.
The main reason for the Heels’ turnaround is, of course, on defense. They have 20 sacks in the last four weeks and have held the last four opponents to just 288 yards on 132 attempts combined.
Wake Forest is 6-3 and bowl eligible in its first season under new head coach Jake Dickert. Last week’s victory at No. 12 Virginia is arguably the biggest win of the season for the Demon Deacons. They knocked UVA QB Chandler Morris out of the game in the second quarter and did pull the upset. However, Wake was outgained 327-to-203 and were +3 in the turnovers.
The Deacs also could not throw the ball with either QB. Robby Ashford was 7-for-16 for 46 yards and DeShawn Purdie was 2-for-7 for 18 yards. The passing game has not been there consistently for Wake Forest and that is dangerous against a North Carolina defense that is absolutely stuffing the run.
North Carolina’s offense has not had the easiest time and likely will not here against a Wake defense that is also near the top 30 nationally. Nevertheless, there is still a negative perception around North Carolina from earlier in the season that ignores not only its defensive resurgence, but also that they have not packed it in on the season and is still playing with a bit of a chip on its shoulder.
QUICK HITS
Oregon State -135 ML at Tulsa
Last week, Oregon State was on the bad end of one of the most misleading games of the season.
Oregon State dominated then-winless Sam Houston State in the stat sheet with a 474-to-157-yard edge. However, everything else went wrong as the Beavers had two interceptions, two missed field goals and were stopped on downs at the Sam Houston 10-yard line. Plus, Sam Houston got a 98-yard kick return TD and a 31-yard blocked punt return for a TD to help them defeat Oregon State, 21-17.
So, we have a team that lost at home as 21-point favorites to a winless team and now are favorites on the road, and we are going to lay the points? You betcha.
Oklahoma +6 at Alabama
Tim Murray and I talked about this game on Wednesday’s episode of the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast.
While Alabama sits inside the Top 4 of the latest CFP rankings, Oklahoma is No. 11 and still very much alive, but the Sooners must have this one.
More often than not, it is a good idea to take the team that has the better defense and running game, especially when getting points.
Baylor +9 vs. Utah
Our last impression of Utah certainly has to be a good one as the Utes pounded a ranked Cincinnati team, 45-14, with College Gameday in town.
However, that may have inflated this price a bit, considering the Utes will be taking on a high-octane Baylor offense led by QB Sawyer Robertson, who leads the nation with 26 TD passes, and is 5th with 2,780 yards.
BEST OF THE REST
Notre Dame -12.5 at Pittsburgh
South Carolina +19.5 at Texas A&M
Coastal Carolina/Georgia Southern OVER 60
Wyoming +4 at Fresno State
For more college football Week 12 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 12 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
