Week 14 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 14 college football best bets:
Mississippi State +7.5 -115 vs. Ole Miss
There is no shortage of storylines surrounding the Egg Bowl this year, especially on the Ole Miss side.
While the Rebels would need to win in Starkville plus have Alabama and Texas A&M both lose, Ole Miss, currently No. 7 in the CFP rankings, would clinch a spot in the playoff with a victory here.
However, the continued speculation of whether Lane Kiffin is staying or going (LSU? Florida? Tennessee Titans?) continues to be the overarching storyline around The Grove in Oxford.
Meanwhile, Jeff Lebby, Kiffin’s OC at Ole Miss in 2020 and 2021, is trying to get Mississippi State back bowling in Starkville.
Mississippi State has lost three one-score games (twice in OT vs. Tennessee and Texas and at Florida). They should probably be at least 7-4 on the season, but instead, they have to win this one just to get to 6-6.
Ole Miss has certainly had better fortune in one-score games going 4-1. However, Kiffin’s bunch has not exactly been reliable as large favorites all season, having failed to cover at Kentucky, vs. Washington State, and Florida (although they did cover late vs. South Carolina).
Like Christopher Walken on Saturday Night Live in the famous Blue Oyster Cult sketch, “I’ve got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell.”
Nebraska +6 vs. Iowa
The market was all over Nebraska last week at Penn State as the line went three points in the Cornhuskers’ favor. They responded by getting whacked 37-10 in Happy Valley.
This is a spot I like to come in on a team when they let down the market and the bettors big time last week, and now, they want nothing to do with them.
This rivalry, dating back to 1891, resumed as the Heroes Game in 2011 when Nebraska joined the Big Ten.
The Huskers have lost by identical 13-10 scores in Matt Rhule’s first two meetings with Kirk Ferentz.
Of course, the big story around Nebraska football recently has been the speculation regarding injured QB Dylan Raiola going into the transfer portal. For this game, it could work in Nebraska’s favor as the players in their final home game could be tired of the talk and play with a “hell with it, we don’t need him” mentality and rally around their freshman starter TJ Lateef.
With a total of around 39 and based on the results of the last two years, points will be at a premium, and this looks to be too big of a number for Iowa on the road.
Air Force -125 ML at Colorado State
Neither team is going bowling, and Colorado State just hired UConn’s Jim Mora Jr to take over the program.
Air Force lost QB Liam Szarka two weeks ago in its game at UConn and likely goes with a combination of Kemper Hodges, more of a battering ram up the middle, and Josh Johnson, who has a bit more burst in the running game.
As unstable as Air Force’s quarterback situation is, it pales in comparison to Colorado State, who will likely be starting its fourth QB this season.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi was benched after three games and left the program, then Jackson Brousseau was injured vs. New Mexico. Darius Curry took over as the starter last week at Boise State but is suspended due to spitting at a Boise State player last week. Now, Tahj Bullock, who is CSU’s running QB, is likely to start. Bullock has thrown one pass this season. He’s thrown only 100 in total (two seasons at Akron, one at Virginia Tech).
Air Force should be prepared to face a running QB being that they face the triple option each day in practice.
While only 3-8 on the season, Air Force puts a priority on this game as Troy Calhoun is 14-3 all-time in the Ram-Falcon Trophy Game.
South Carolina -135 ML vs. Clemson
South Carolina was ranked in the AP Top 10 in Week 2 of the season. Then, it came crashing down when QB LaNorris Sellers was knocked out of the game against Vanderbilt, and the Gamecocks went on to lose 31-7.
Injuries and a nightmare schedule took their toll on South Carolina. In fact, last week’s game vs. Coastal Carolina (a 51-7 win) was the first time that the Gamecocks did not play a team ranked in the Top 14 since the last week of September.
With no bowl game on the horizon, the Gamecocks will have to treat this game as the “Palmetto Bowl” against rival Clemson.
After its own disappointing 1-3 start, Clemson was able to rally to get bowl eligible with three straight victories over Florida State, Louisville, and Furman. However, the Tigers were outgained in both of those ACC victories.
While South Carolina is just 4-7, they outplayed Alabama in a home loss and were up 30-3 at Texas A&M before falling 31-30.
Plus, the rumors were abound regarding Shane Beamer returning to Virginia Tech to restore the program that his father once built. Now that job has been filled and that potential distraction is gone.
Beware of going against the teams with “nothing to play for”. There is something to play for in this rivalry.
Auburn +6 vs. Alabama
Alabama is also in a ‘win and in’ situation to go to the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide are currently No. 10 in the CFP rankings and would be the last at-large spot in the field unless they win this week and next.
On the other side of the ‘Iron Bowl’ is Auburn, who currently sits 5-6 and is searching for a head coach. However, they can still get bowl eligible, but make no mistake, this is War Eagle’s bowl game.
Auburn has lost six close games this season:
24-17 at Oklahoma
16-10 at Texas A&M
20-10 vs. Georgia
23-17 vs. Missouri in 2 OT
10-3 vs. Kentucky (which led to Hugh Freeze’s firing)
45-38 at Vanderbilt in OT
The once anemic Auburn offense has shown some life under new QBs Ashton Daniels (31/44 353 yds 2 TD; 18 carries 89 yards 2 TD at Vanderbilt) and Deuce Knight (15/20 239 yards 2 TD, 9 carries 182 yards 4 TD vs. Mercer) and a faster pace. Daniels was held out of last week’s game to preserve an extra year of eligibility. Both are expected to play here, which makes Alabama’s preparation even more difficult.
Auburn is one of just 12 teams in FBS that allow fewer than 100 ypg on the ground and Alabama has struggled to run the ball all season.
Quick Hits
Texas +3 -120 vs. Texas A&M
Granted, you can only play who is in front of you, and conference expansion has caused imbalanced schedules.
The Aggies are 11-0 and did win in South Bend against Notre Dame. However, their seven SEC victories have all been against teams with losing records in conference play: LSU, Missouri, Florida, Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Arkansas.
Texas failed to live up to its expectations as the preseason No. 1, but can still finish out its season strongly and at No. 16, while unlikely, it is not impossible for the Longhorns to find its way into the CFP if things get really weird. Keep in mind that Texas has victories over the current No. 8 (Oklahoma) and No. 14 (Vanderbilt).
Purdue +29 vs. Indiana
The results have not come in the win column for Barry Odom in his first year at Purdue, currently sitting at 2-9. However, the Boilermakers have at least been competitive in more games than last year. No game was more indicative of Purdue’s lack of competitiveness than last year’s Old Oaken Bucket game in Bloomington, where the Hoosiers hung a 66-0 beatdown on them last year.
This is Odom’s first impression of this rivalry that seems so one-sided (atlhough Purdue has a big lead in the series) at the moment with Indiana about to head towards its second CFP berth in a row and having a chance to win its first Big Ten Championship since 1967 in Indianapolis next week. Furthermore, QB Fernando Mendoza is still the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in two weeks.
Curt Cignetti has not shown a proclivity to let the foot off the gas pedal in his less than two seasons in Bloomington, but with a spot in the CFP secure and a Big Ten Championship Game on deck that more than likely is to get some revenge from last year against Ohio State, perhaps we will see a little less urgency to stomp on Purdue. Plus, this Boilermakers team has a little more fight than last year. The number is a tick too high here.
Sam Houston State +11 vs. Florida International
FIU just got bowl eligible for the first time in seven years last weekend with a victory over Jacksonville State. Now they travel to lowly Sam Houston, who was at one point 0-8 but has won two of its last three games.
This could be a total letdown spot for FIU, having already accomplished its goal of getting back to a bowl game.
Central Florida +18 at BYU
BYU picked up its fourth quality road win of the season last week at Cincinnati and has a ‘win and in’ situation here to likely get a rematch against Texas Tech, its lone loss of the season, in the Big XII Championship Game next week.
The Cougars are ranked No. 11 in the CFP and perhaps could even use a few style points. This week, in the home finale on Senior Day, they get a UCF team, while needing another win for bowl eligibility, needed a FG in the final minute to beat an awful Oklahoma State team last weekend, and now has to have long travel from Orlando to Provo, UT.
And yet, the line has not moved in its favor all week? Hmmmm.
Tulsa -8.5 vs. UAB
In the final week of the college football regular season, there are some teams out of bowl contention that will continue to play hard and some teams that are happy to end the season. This matchup has one of both.
Tulsa coach Tre Lamb is trying to establish a culture in his first season. The Golden Hurricane have won two games in a row, including getting their first AAC conference victory last week, upsetting Army at West Point.
Meanwhile, UAB has had a tumultuous season. Trent Dilfer was fired, and interim coach Alex Mortensen is likely looking for an OC job at a Power Four school.
On the morning of last week’s game, UAB OL Daniel Mincey apparently stabbed DL JaSire Peterson and Josh Underwood at the football operations center just hours before the Blazers were to face South Florida, which was eventually a 48-18 loss.
Not sure how UAB has any focus for this game at all.
Virginia Tech +8.5 at Virginia
California +13.5 vs. SMU
The two favorites – Virginia and SMU – are in the ‘win and in’ situations as they control their own destiny to reach the ACC Championship Game.
I took +10 and the market came in on Virginia Tech as well. The Hokies are about to begin the James Franklin era as soon as this game is over. This is a chance for these guys, especially the seniors to go out a winner. Virginia has been fortunate in several victories this season – at Louisville, vs. Washington State, and at North Carolina. The pressure is all on the Wahoos here.
Cal inexplicably fired Justin Wilcox this week, although the Golden Bears did lose to Stanford, who is currently without a permanent head coach, last Saturday.
SMU has won its last two games in blowout fashion and are certainly motivated to make back-to-back appearances in the ACC Championship Game, but this number is too high to lay to a Cal group that is already bowl eligible.
Best of the Rest
Vanderbilt/Tennessee Over 65
Washington +7 vs. Oregon
Illinois -7 vs. Northwestern
Nevada +8.5 vs. UNLV
For more college football Week 14 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 14 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
