Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 6 college football best bets:
Cincinnati -120 ML vs. Iowa State
Iowa State won impressively over Arizona last weekend and is now one of two teams (Arizona State is the other) off to a 2-0 start in Big XII play. This week, they take to the road to face a Cincinnati club that currently rates No. 3 in the country on offense at 8.3 yards per play.
The Bearcats won a shootout last weekend in Lawrence, putting up 37 points and 603 yards (did give up 34 and 597) and scored in the final minute to defeat Kansas.
Cincinnati QB Brennan Sorsby is starting to look more comfortable and has gone 61/82 for 974 yards and 10 TD vs. 0 INT over his last three games. That could be bad news against an Iowa State secondary already down its two starting corners for the season and FS Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman, who is out this week.
The secondary is not the only unit that is fighting injuries for the Cyclones. Kicker Kyle Konrardy, who kicked a 63-yard FG earlier this season and the game-winner in the CyHawk game against Iowa two years in a row, is likely out for a second week in a row.
Iowa State is 5-0, but they lack the explosiveness offensively that they had last year with receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins now in the NFL. They barely escaped on the road at Arkansas State, now 1-4, three weeks ago as three-touchdown favorites.
Current Bearcats DC Tyson Veldt was on the Cyclones staff from 2016-2023 and both teams run similar three-high safety defensive schemes. However, Cincinnati has just a little more offensive firepower to attack it than Iowa State.
Purdue +9.5 vs. Illinois
Illinois has certainly run the gamut of emotions over the last two weeks. They were humiliated in primetime at Indiana, losing 63-10. Then, when many asked “How can they recover from that?”, they did just that upsetting USC last weekend. Now there is another question to ask, which is “How much does Illinois have left in the tank”?
The Illini have No. 1 Ohio State coming to Champaign next week but first have to go to West Lafayette and face Purdue.
Purdue is off a bye week, and first-year head coach Barry Odom has a massive rebuilding project, but the Boilermakers have shown some fight and competitiveness in Odom’s short time there.
Illinois was in a similar spot last season against Purdue in a game sandwiched between four ranked matchups. In that game, the Illini had to survive a two-point conversion attempt in a 50-49 overtime win against a Purdue squad that ended up winning one game in 2024.
This is the sixth straight game for Illinois, and there is a good chance that they are running on fumes here after the two widespread disparate outcomes they have had over the last two weeks.
Louisville -6.5 vs. Virginia
Virginia pulled off the upset last Friday night as the fans stormed the field at Scott Stadium in celebration of the program’s biggest win in over two decades. The Cavaliers, now ranked for the first time in almost six years, now have to get over that and travel to undefeated Louisville, who are probably wondering what they have to do in order to get respect from the pollsters.
The Cardinals rallied from an early 17-0 deficit to win and cover (despite heavy market resistance) at Pittsburgh. Louisville forced five turnovers in the victory.
This week, U of L should have total focus here to knock off a ranked team and get ranked itself since they have a bye on deck before many players on its roster get a homecoming of sorts at Miami in two weeks.
The UVA offense is absolutely for real (No. 5 nationally – 540 yards per game) and North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris can fling it, but he has to be careful as Louisville has six picks in its last three games and Morris has thrown four already in five games, including three last week.
Wyoming +4.5 vs. UNLV
The Dan Mullen era is off to a 4-0 start in Las Vegas, albeit against a slate of opponents who have not exactly been a murderer’s row. After being outgained in a close victory over FCS Idaho State, the Rebels have defeated Sam Houston State (0-5), UCLA (0-4), and Miami OH (1-3). UNLV has yet to defeat a team with a win over an FBS opponent.
Before this past bye week, UNLV was in a 14-0 hole in its last game before Miami QB Dequan Finn was knocked out of the game with a leg injury.
With two early bye weeks, this will be just the second game since September 7th for UNLV. Oftentimes, bye weeks can come at the wrong time, especially when a team is having some success like the Rebels are early in the season. A team can get out of rhythm, and this might be the case this week for UNLV.
Some windy conditions plus rain are expected in Laramie on Saturday night. These weather conditions will not be favorable to a UNLV defense that is struggling against the run (bottom 10 in Rushing EPA allowed) and facing a RB in Samuel Harris averaging just under 7 yards per carry and ran for 68 on just 8 carries against a tough Utah defense and put up 126 on 19 carries against Colorado two weeks ago.
Wyoming is 19-8 ATS as a home underdog over the last decade and the Rebels could be feeling themselves a bit with their 4-0 start.
Florida State +4.5 vs. Miami (FL)
This season marks 100 seasons of Miami Hurricanes Football, and there has not been this much excitement around this program in over two decades. Miami is off to a 4-0 start and has a No. 3 ranking with two rivalry victories over Notre Dame and Florida. “The U” is now looking to make it a rivalry hat trick with a win in its first road game of 2025 at Florida State.
The home victories are good wins, but Miami did beat Notre Dame – a redshirt freshman QB making his first start, South Florida—off two big underdog wins vs. Boise State and at Florida, and Florida—with offensive problems galore and off two losses vs. South Florida and at LSU.
Florida State, perhaps, got a bit overrated heading into last week and got defeated at Virginia in 2OT. Nevertheless, the Seminoles are still a much-improved and good club.
Miami’s defense is certainly improved, especially from a speed standpoint, but Florida State still ranks as the nation’s No. 1 offense, and Gus Malzahn’s misdirection plus QB Thomas Castellanos running ability can take advantage of that.
Despite Miami’s duo of good coordinators – OC Shannon Dawson and DC Corey Hetherman – the coaching is still a concern with Mario Cristobal at the helm, so the coaching edge is Florida State’s, and Mike Norvell is in a role as a home dog that has served him well in his career. In fact, he is 7-1 ATS as a home pup against ranked opponents.
Quick Hits
Colorado State/San Diego State Over 40.5
Colorado State only scored 3 at home vs. Washington State, while San Diego State has only allowed 3 points combined in its last two games and won a 6-3 game on the road at Northern Illinois last weekend. So, this looks like an easy under, right?
UAB +7 vs. Army
While Army has two extra days rest of playing last Thursday night at East Carolina, a 28-6 defeat, they are off to just a 1-3 start and are clearly showing the effects offensively from losing AAC Player of the Year QB Bryson Daily to graduation and RB Kanye Udoh to the transfer portal (Arizona State), plus attrition on the offensive line along with the loss of OL coach Matt Drinkall, who is now head coach at Central Michigan.
UAB is 2-2 and off a bye. The Blazers have already faced the triple option this year in a 38-24 loss at Navy. While they did give up 463 yards (295 on the ground), they do have an extra week of preparation this time around.
Best of the Rest
Boston College/Pittsburgh Over 56.5
Boise State/Notre Dame Under 63.5
Texas A&M -14.5 vs. Mississippi State
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