Week 7 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 7 college football best bets:
Missouri +3 vs. Alabama
Alabama has certainly gone through the ringer in the first several weeks of the season. The Tide opened with a loss at Florida State, and all of a sudden, they were done as an elite program. National commentators were writing Kalen DeBoer’s obituary as head coach in Tuscaloosa. A month later, Alabama is the favorite to win the SEC after victories at Georgia and vs. Vanderbilt.
On the other hand, Missouri has not been out of Columbia yet this season and will host its sixth straight home game after a bye last week. Prior to said bye week, the Tigers played an easy game vs. UMass, so you could argue that Mizzou has had three weeks to prepare for the Tide.
This game with Alabama is certainly a step up in class for Missouri, considering the Tigers’ strength of schedule ranks 150th nationally. However, the Tigers should be ready to run against Alabama as Mizzou ranks third nationally in rushing offense and the Tide defense have been permissible on the ground, giving up 230 to Florida State, 227 to Georgia, but only 135 to Vanderbilt (but 7.1 yards per carry).
Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog during his tenure in Columbia. Aside from playing a top 10 opponent, this is a statement game for Mizzou, not just for the 2025 season but as a program in the SEC that has never felt accepted or respected by the old guard of the conference.
Kansas State +2 vs. TCU
K-State fell to a disappointing 2-4 (already going under its season win total) last week, blowing a 31-17 lead at Baylor. While not much of a silver lining, the Wildcats did eclipse 500 yards for the first time this season, and the offense is starting to show improvement after early-season struggles.
Meanwhile, TCU was tied in the fourth quarter against Colorado with less than six minutes to go and did not settle for the field goal with :09 left and threw for a TD to get the miracle cover. The Horned Frogs benefitted from a plus-4 turnover margin.
The Wildcats look to still be trying here and have not quit on the season.
Oregon State +3 vs. Wake Forest
After having victory snatched away from them vs. Georgia Tech in OT, Wake Forest went on the road and won at Virginia Tech in a tough, emotional spot.
Now the Demon Deacons go across the country to face a winless Oregon State team, currently sitting at 0-6, before having a bye week and then getting into the meat of its ACC schedule with games vs. SMU, at Florida State, and at Virginia on deck.
After being blown out by what look like two of the better teams in the country in Texas Tech and Oregon, the Beavers have continued to battle as they lost by three vs. Houston in OT and by four at Appalachian State.
Oregon State did outgain both of those last two opponents and catch Wake Forest in a tricky spot here.
USC -130 ML vs. Michigan
USC took its first defeat of the season two weeks ago at Illinois. The week before, the Trojans played an 8 PM PT game vs. Michigan State and then played a 9 AM PT tilt in Champaign.
This week, USC is off the bye week looking to get the taste of losing out of its mouth and got some bulletin board material for this one courtesy of Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore telling the media at his press conference that the LA Coliseum was sold out because the Wolverines are on the marquee. USC’s Lincoln Riley downplayed the remarks, but this is a big game for him against a marquee Big Ten opponent.
Michigan’s defense is still good up front under Wink Martindale, but the secondary did have some massive losses from last season, and it will show most against this high-powered USC offense that ranks No. 2 in America.
Bryce Underwood continues to make incremental improvements each week at QB for Michigan, but he is not yet capable of going score for score with USC’s Jayden Maiava.
This total has gone up two-and-a-half points from the opener, and these shootouts are typically the types of games that Riley wins with his offense.
Auburn +3.5 vs. Georgia
Auburn’s arduous 2025 slate continues as they have already played road games at Baylor, at Oklahoma, and at Texas A&M and face Georgia this week.
At least the Tigers had a much-needed bye last week and hopefully for their sake, they worked on jump-starting a sometimes-anemic offense that only put up 27 combined points at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M. Auburn has also allowed 15 sacks over its last two games. However, Georgia does not have its usual elite unit on the DL as they only have seven sacks in five games.
Both teams are stout (top 20 nationally) against the run, but Auburn has the more mobile QB in Jackson Arnold and had the bye week to prepare.
Hugh Freeze could use a big, signature win on the Plain and could very well get it here in the “Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.”
Quick Hits
Air Force +7 at UNLV, Over 64.5
Air Force is off to its worst start (1-4) since 2017 despite having a top 20 offense and a QB in Liam Szarka that can actually throw the ball, a rarity in the Falcons offense. However, they might be a bottom-five defense in America and are nearly giving up 500 yards per game.
Dan Mullen has UNLV off to a 5-0 start. While the Rebels have been highly fortunate, 5-0 is 5-0. Nevertheless, last week took the cake as UNLV went to Wyoming and won 31-17 in a hailstorm. UNLV was outgained by over 100 yards but was +2 in turnover margin and blocked not one, but two punts for touchdowns.
Should also be a high-scoring game with two bad defenses.
Indiana +7.5 at Oregon
I suppose that I’m obligated to have something on this one since I am in Eugene to see the alma mater play in what to date is the biggest regular-season game of the Curt Cignetti era.
Admittedly, I am not all that keen on seeing Indiana see so much support in the market, but this is a different Hoosiers program now with a bona fide Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Fernando Mendoza.
Oregon is certainly loaded with speed and athleticism and ran the table in its first season in the Big Ten last year, but this is the best team the Ducks have played thus far this season.
Best of the Rest
South Florida/North Texas Over 66.5
Ball State/Western Michigan Under 44
Arkansas +13 at Tennessee
Wisconsin +3 vs. Iowa
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